Padres vs Dodgers Betting Analysis: Padres Looking to Close Gap in NL West Race

Dodgers Hoping for More Domination Against Padres

Winning on the MLB road is no problem for the Padres, the second series of the season against National League West title contenders features a pair of teams struggling just a bit. Let’s take a look at an honest Padres vs Dodgers Betting Analysis.

The Padres are 16-12 in the month of June and have picked up 1.5 games in the standings on the Dodgers. Still, Los Angeles leads the division by 1.5 games and has the best record in the National League.

When the teams met in April, the Dodgers won two of the three games and outscored the Padres 18-6. Friday’s matchup featuring Blake Snell starting for the Padres and undefeated Tony Gonsolin getting the call for the Dodgers has the potential to be the best of the four games.

The Dodgers (+450) trail only the New York Yankees in the odds to win the World Series. The Padres (+1400) are tied for sixth.

Padres vs Dodgers Series Information

  • Game: Padres 46-31 (second in the NL West) Dodgers 46-28 (first in the NL West)
  • Location: Dodger Stadium
  • Day/Time: (teams also play )
  • Television: Thursday’s game on FS1, Saturday’s game on FOX

Padres vs Dodgers Probable Starting Pitchers

  • Thursday: Joe Musgrove (Padres) Mitch White (Dodgers)
  • Friday: Blake Snell (Padres) Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers)
  • Saturday: Yu Darvish (Padres) Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
  • Sunday: MacKenzie Gore (Padres) Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Padres Need to Get Bats Going

Playing without both Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. is starting to show for the Padres. Their absence figures into the Padres vs Dodgers betting analysis for this series.

Over the last six games, San Diego has a team batting average of .213 with more strikeouts (45) than hits (42).

The only starter with an average of over .300 during that stretch is catcher Austin Nola (.313, two doubles, three RBIs). Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham, Luke Voit, and Jose Azocar are a combined 9 for 67 with one extra-base hit and two RBIs in a span of six games.

Those numbers are still better than what San Diego managed in the three-game series against the Dodgers in April as the Padres hit .179. Three of the six RBIs in the series came from Wil Myers and he is sidelined for an unknown period of time due to a knee injury. When looking at the San Diego Padres team stats, Eric Hosmer did bat .364 in that series so perhaps playing the Dodgers will get him going again.

Freeman Starting to Heat Up for Dodgers

Freddie Freeman’s emotional reaction in returning to play in Atlanta wasn’t that well-received by his teammates. Those questioning where how committed he is to his new team probably didn’t have much to say when the veteran first baseman was 5 of 13 with three runs scored in a three-game series in Colorado. The thought that he can continue to deliver is a key part of the Padres vs Dodgers betting analysis.

Among the starters, Freeman has the best batting average (.367), on-base percentage (.441), and the most runs (six) and hits (11) over the last seven games. With Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Chris Taylor still struggling for consistency, the Dodgers will need more of that production from Freeman.

Freeman hit .273 with a home run, two runs, and two RBIs in the three-game set with the Padres back in April. That was an improvement as Freeman was 10 of 48 against the Padres during the 2019 and 2021 seasons.

Who’s Hot?

  • MacKenzie Gore, Padres P: After a couple of rough outings, Gore bounced back by allowing three hits and no runs in five innings during his most recent start.
  • Eric Hosmer, Padres 1B: Three of Hosmer’s last seven hits have gone for extra bases. He also has four hits in his last three games.
  • Gavin Lux, Dodgers IF: The former first-round pick is hitting .348 in his last six games. He has at least two hits in three of his last four games and has at least one hit in 10 of his last 11 contests.
  • David Price, Dodgers P: Price has not allowed a run in his last six appearances. He has eight strikeouts and has allowed four hits over six innings during that span.

Who’s Not

  • Phil Bickford, Dodgers P: Bickford has allowed four hits and four runs over 3 1/3 innings in his last four appearances.
  • Trent Grisham, Padres OF: Grisham has one hit in 11 at-bats over his last three games. He has walked twice during that time.
  • Joe Musgrove, Padres P: Musgrove gave up seven hits, including two home runs and six runs over six innings in his last outing.
  • Chris Taylor, Dodgers OF: Taylor is 3 for 24 with eight strikeouts in his last seven games. He does have three runs during that stretch.

Injury Update

For the Padres, third baseman player Manny Machado (ankle) is out indefinitely, and pitchers Austin Adams (forearm) and Pierce Johnson (elbow) are not expected back until late July. A knee injury will sideline outfielder Wil Myers until late July.

For the Dodgers, Mookie Betts (ribs) is not expected back for a couple more weeks. Pitchers Walker Buehler and Danny Duffy are out for an extended period.

Padres vs Dodgers Betting Analysis

This series is missing some of its star power with MVP candidates Manny Machado of the Padres and Mookie Betts of the Dodgers currently sidelined.

When the team began, the thought of one of the best 1-2 pitching tandems being Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson of the Dodgers seemed rather unlikely, however, they are a combined 17-1. With Walker Buehler sidelined for a while, they will need to come through with more Los Angeles Dodgers games.

While Gore didn’t allow a run in his last start, the other three probable pitchers for the Padres allowed 20 hits and 13 runs in 17 2/3 innings in their most recent outings.

The Dodgers have won 11 of the last 12 games in the series with only three of those games being decided by one run.

The Padres are tied for second in the National League with 25 road wins while the Dodgers are 20-12 at home.

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