Let’s start our Phillies vs Braves Series preview by pointing out we know how red-hot the newly signed Austin Riley is, but we don’t want bettors jumping on surface reasons to bet an over. Riley’s .423 average with 11 homers in July became the first Brave to hit .400 with at least 10 homers in a month since Chipper Jones did it in 1999.
History tells us that the over is the play in this series, but numbers only tell you where you’ve been, not where you’re going. Scorching hot Austin Riley and the Atlanta Braves kick off a two-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies, who trail the Braves by 10 games in the National League East standings, have found a way to overcome the loss of Bryce Harper by relying on Kyle Schwarber who hit 10 dingers in July. These are two teams who are providing plenty of baserunners, but does that mean over is the automatic wager?
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) at Atlanta Braves (62-41)
- Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
- Television: NBCSP, BSSO
Bohm, Realmuto Lead the Phillies Offense
The Phillies are not World Series betting favorites, but our Phillies vs Braves series preview clearly points out that the focus may be on Riley, but the Phillies have more than enough to counter Atlanta. Alec Brohm hit a league-high .434 in July and was nearly as good against the Braves (.390 in 10 games) who trail the New York Mets by 3.5 games in the National League East.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto is washing that down with a 13-game on-base streak, hitting .413 in that span. The Phillies (45-1 to win the World Series) have won five straight games on the back of taking two of three from the Phillies last week. Nick Nelson (3-1, 3.94) will get the start for Rob Thomson. This will be a bullpen game after Kyle Gibson was placed on bereavement leave following the death of his grandmother.
Braves Pitching Needs to Be Better Than it Was in Philly
Our Phillies vs Braves series preview continues with a look back, just a week ago, to the struggles that Braves pitching had keeping the third-place Phillies off the scoreboard.
Perhaps the standings would be different if the Phils could muster over five runs a game as they did in their last meeting. That total can be added on to the 14 the Phillies put up on June 30th.
While the Braves did take that series two games to one, it set the tone for what was to come. Factoring that game in, the Phillies have beaten the Braves three of four while scoring almost eight runs a game.
Pitching is Key to Winning Ticket
The Phillies World Series bettors may become bolder with their wagers if the Phillies, who are just one game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the wild-card standings, can win another series from the Braves.
Much of this game one preview has focused on what teams can do offensively, but it’s the pitching that will speak the loudest. Atlanta will start player Spencer Strider (5-3, 2.91) in the opener. A week ago, Strider was terrific against the Phils, allowing just one run in six innings.
We know that this is a bullpen game for the Phillies, but this shouldn’t force you to gravitate towards the over. Over Philadelphia’s last 13 road games, nine have gone under the total and five of seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
To conclude our Phillies vs Braves series preview, we recommend that the under should be the way to go in game one. This number opened at 7.5 but after the books learned that Gibson wouldn’t be starting, they moved it to a friendly 8.5. The hook is what gets us the win in game one. Where will the Philadelphia Phillies standings end up when this is over?Follow us on Twitter