Pirates and D’Backs Fight For NL Wild Card Spot

Two teams firmly in the mix for one of the three up-for-grabs Wild Card positions in the National League — the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks — face off in a critical three-game series this weekend in Phoenix. The Pirates vs D’Backs MLB odds favor the latter.

Both teams have bounced back from tough starts to climb over .500 and move within a game of a playoff berth. Pittsburgh is just one win behind Arizona while both MLB teams have 50 losses.

• The Pirates vs D’Backs MLB odds have the Diamondbacks as -175 moneyline favorites and +115 at -1.5 on the runline in Friday’s series opener.
• The total is 8.5 runs.

Pittsburgh has ridden incredible starting pitching, highlighted by 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes, all year even as the lineup has disappointed and the bullpen has weathered ups and downs.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, Skenes will miss this series but Luis L. Ortiz, Marco Gonzales, and Mitch Keller will throw and each has been pretty good. All boast ERAs in the mid-3.00s or lower.

Performances from the back-end of the Pittsburgh rotation have allowed the Pirates to stay in the MLB playoff race.

Arizona hasn’t lost a series in nearly a month and is 4-2 since the All-Star break, taking road series from the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals.

The Diamondbacks’ starters too have been carrying the load lately while the top-ten lineup has been a bit inconsistent. They’ll have two of their best starters — Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt — going over the weekend, which should give the Diamondbacks an overall edge.

Can Pittsburgh Rotation Keep Dealing?

The Pirates’ starters showed off in Pittsburgh’s impressive series win over the Cardinals this week in which St. Louis was held to a total of three runs.

The Pirates vs D’Backs MLB odds reflect how Pittsburgh has MLB’s third-lowest starter ERA and while much of that is due to Skenes, as noted above, the rest of the rotation has been really good too. With how disappointing the lineup and bullpen have been, the Pirates need the starters to continue to be sharp.

That won’t be an easy task against the fast and effective Arizona offense which has rebounded from a sluggish early-season to score the third-most runs in baseball.

If the likes of Ortiz, Gonzales, and Keller aren’t able to keep the good vibes going from the Cardinals series, then the Pirates may be in trouble. David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman have good track records but they have been far from automatic. Colin Holderman has been great in high-leverage spots too.

Otherwise, the trusted portion of the relief core is pretty thin. One of the best MLB bets you can make is there will be plenty of late-game runs scored by both teams as neither bullpen is especially formidable.

Arizona Can Put Up Runs

You may not think it when looking at the Diamondbacks‘ roster but this offense is eighth in average, fifth in on-base percentage, and ninth in OPS.

Any Pirates vs D’Backs MLB odds factor in how Arizona not only have the better lineup in this series but also arguably has the two best pitchers throwing in Gallen (Friday’s starter) and Pfaadt.

On paper, Gallen has the edge over Ortiz despite Gallen not pitching particularly great in July. He is coming off five scoreless innings against the Cubs in his last outing but he walked six batters.

In the start before, he allowed seven runs (six earned) to the Blue Jays, and in his prior two outings, he was hit hard by the Braves and Dodgers. Overall, though, he is having a good year even with the recent issues. Gallen is too strong a pitcher to be kept down for long.

Plus, the Diamondbacks have a relentless offense that gets on base a ton and makes life difficult for opposing pitchers. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte are having MVP-caliber seasons and the likes of Joc Pederson, Eugenio Suárez, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all done a great job in terms of run prevention.

While Corbin Carroll is still struggling and Arizona hasn’t gotten much from center and right field, the Diamondbacks are in the top third in most offensive categories.

Go With Pirates On The Moneyline

Friday’s game is a tough one to bet on because while Gallen is an ace, he isn’t at his best and Ortiz, on the other hand, is on a major heater. He has given up a total of three runs in his last five appearances (four starts). However, those are his only four starts of the year so he doesn’t have much of a track record to refer back to.

With that said, take the Pirates to win straight-up as +145 moneyline underdogs. That value is too good to pass up between evenly matched teams.

As far as MLB prop bets today go, consider going with Ortiz’s under outs at whatever number you can get it at. He doesn’t pitch deep into MLB games and could be roughed up, so that kind of bet may be a nice hedge to Pirates moneyline.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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