Pittsburgh Could Fall Below .500 After This Series Against San Diego

Padres vs Pirates Odds & Predictions: The Padres Will Stay Hot On The Road

The San Diego Padres will travel to Pittsburgh for a three-game series on the East Coast. The Padres are 61-52 on the season and in the middle of the National League Wild Card race.

If the season ended today, the Padres would be the third and final team in the Wild Card.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are still in the race, too. Pittsburgh is four games out from the Padres in the National League Wild Card. Therefore, a series win at home would be critical for the Pirates’ chances of making the playoffs this season.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, Paul Skenes is not scheduled to pitch in this series. Will that hurt Pittsburgh’s chances of winning the home series?

The oddsmakers seem to think so. San Diego is -164 on the road, with the total currently at 8. The Padres haven’t announced a starter for Thursday’s game, but we’ll break down all three matchups and discuss the probable pitchers.

Review our Padres vs Pirates odds & predictions for this entire series below.

Padres logoSan Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pirates logo

📊 Records: San Diego Padres (61-52), Pittsburgh Pirates (56-55)
📅 Date & Time: Tuesday, August 6, 6:40 pm ET
📍 Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
📺 Streaming: SportsNet-PIT, San Diego Padres

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Padres Agree to Minor League Deal with Austin Davis

The San Diego Padres added a bunch of upgrades in the bullpen during the MLB Trade Deadline. But that wasn’t enough.

San Diego re-signed lefty Austin Davis to a minor league contract. He’s already appeared in seven games for the Padres this year. However, he allowed seven runs in seven innings with San Diego.

He doesn’t have a path to return to the big leagues right now. After all, the Padres brought in Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing for relief spots with Adrian Morejon and Yuki Matsui.

Colin Holderman’s “Weird” Struggles

Holderman is typically one of the Pirates’ most consistent relievers. On June 29, the right-handed pitcher was 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA.

However, since then, he’s 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA and has five blown saves. He’s given up eight runs, including four homers in his last four outings.

His manager seems to think he’s throwing balls over the middle of the plate, which is the key reason for his dip. We’ll see if Holderman can adjust in this critical series on the 2024 MLB schedule.

Here is the Padres vs Pirates Odds & Predictions For Game 1:

RL: Padres -1.5 (-102) ML: Padres -164, O/U: 8 -110/–110

Padres vs Pirates Series Preview

⚾ Game 1 ⚾

Tuesday, 6:40 pm ET

Dylan Cease vs. Bailey Falter

The Padres begin their three-game road series against the Pirates with Dylan Cease. Cease is a righty with an 11-8 record and a 3.42 ERA in the season. He’s also held his last 120 batters to a .092 ISO and wOBA of .170, adding nearly 37% of strikeouts during that time.

In addition, Cease has limited line drives to 16.9% and has induced more than 49% of ground balls while walking just 9.2% of batters. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the game and earned a no-hitter in July.

Cease will face a Pirates lineup that has struck out 22.7% of the time against righties over the last month. The Pirates’ projected lineup has walked 7.5% of the time and has four batters with low ISO and wOBA. That’ll help Cease get through this game with a quality start.

On the other hand, Pirates’ lefty Bailey Falter will take the hill. In his return to the diamond last week, he was fine against lefties but struggled against righties, allowing a .188 ISO and wOBA of .354 to 16 righties. Those righties struck out only 18.8% of the time, hitting 52.8% of hard contact with nearly 31% of fly balls.

Meanwhile, the Padres’ projected lineup has hit a .179 ISO and wOBA of .330 against lefties over the last 30 days. The same lineup has struck out only 16.9% of the time against lefties, too. There’s way more potential for the Padres in this game.

Let’s back San Diego at -164 using MLB today games odds.

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⚾ Game 2 ⚾

Wednesday, 6:40 pm ET

Michael King vs. Marco Gonzales

While Dylan Cease has earned all of the praise, Michael King has been just as good. In fact, King has struck out 34.3% of batters over the last month and, impressively, has limited teams to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .139 throughout his previous 70 batters faced.

Furthermore, King has kept walks to 5.7% and has allowed just 17.1% of fly balls. Additionally, he’s earned nearly 16% of swinging strikes over the last month.

Although the Pirates don’t have a super high strikeout rate, they still have six batters who have struck out at least 20% of the time against righties over the last month.

Pittsburgh will roll with another left-handed pitcher. This time, it’ll be Marco Gonzales, who has allowed a .189 ISO and wOBA of .422 to his last 58 batters faced. As a lefty, he’s been awful against other lefties, but he’s also had his struggles against righties.

Our MLB predictions for this game would be to back the Padres in Game 2.

⚾ Game 3 ⚾

Thursday, 12:35 pm ET

TBD vs. Luis L. Ortiz

San Diego has not announced a starter for the series finale. However, Pittsburgh will finally add a right-handed pitcher to the mound. Luis L. Ortiz will get the start, and he’s held his last 115 batters to a .289 wOBA. Depending on who San Diego starts, the Pirates could steal the third game and salvage the series per the Padres vs Pirates odds & predictions.


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