Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros Series Preview and Odds

Pirates as Favorites

The Pirates vs Astros MLB odds like Pittsburgh in Monday’s opener as the Pirates are -126 moneyline favorites and +130 runline favorites. The total is 7.5 runs.

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros have both been surprise teams this season, albeit for different reasons. Pittsburgh went from being a complete non-contender to actually competing for a Wild Card spot while Houston seemed headed for a disastrous campaign before a mid-season turnaround put them right in the AL West picture.

So, this week’s series between the Pirates and Astros is a big one for both teams.

Pittsburgh is coming off a disappointing series loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in which the Pirates’ bullpen — a problem all season — came up short twice. Paul Skenes, who starts on Monday, leads Pittsburgh’s rotation, one of baseball’s best, but the shaky relief core has limited its effectiveness.

Even usually solid arms like David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman have struggled at times so the Pirates haven’t been able to put many teams away. With that said, Pittsburgh has been able to buck MLB betting trends by continuing to stay competitive.

Houston, on the other hand, just took two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers to move into a virtual tie with the Seattle Mariners atop the AL West. Neither Houston nor Seattle seems to want the division as both teams have scuffled along since the All-Star break.

The Astros have been able to score enough to combat up-and-down pitching yet they still miss Kyle Tucker, sidelined for nearly two months with a shin contusion. As they always tend to do, Houston keeps finding a way to win.

– Paul Skenes takes the mound in Houston against fellow 2023 draft pick Jake Bloss
– The Yankees and Phillies open a three-game set in Philadelphia
– Simeon Woods Richardson starts for the Twins against the Mets, the team he was drafted by

Who will start their week with a win? pic.twitter.com/4IP3iP7RGa

— MLB (@MLB) July 29, 2024

Skenes Continues To Dominate

The predominant reason why the Pirates vs Astros MLB odds have Pittsburgh favored for Monday night’s game is Skenes, who has been an absolute force in his first season in the big leagues. In 12 starts, he has a 1.93 ERA with only 52 hits and 13 walks allowed in 74 2/3 innings.

He’s striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings and has gone seven innings or further in four of his last five starts. Overall, Skenes has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his starts and each has given up two runs or fewer in nine of his 11 starts.

So, it’s safe to say that the Astros will have their hands full against Skenes. The Pittsburgh rotation, of course, falls off a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with Bailey Falter and Martín Pérez on the mound but having Skenes start things off gives the Pirates a good shot to take the series opener.

Every game is critical for a team like Pittsburgh which is a little on the outside-looking-in of the super-congested NL Wild Card race.

Usually, it’s not smart to bet against Skenes on the MLB scores and odds. The Pirates are 8-4 in his starts and even in those four losses, he has given up a grand total of five runs. This guy is special and while the Pittsburgh bullpen may not be reliable and the lineup is in the bottom-third in most offensive categories, the Pirates always have a shot when Skenes is pitching.

Houston Bats Have Looked Good

To no one’s surprise, the Astros have the second-best batting average in baseball and that has propped up a lineup which is still dangerous but, due to injury and underperformance from some key guys, is only eighth in OPS and 11th in runs scored.

Those numbers would be a lot better with Tucker — who was on pace to be a MVP contender before his injury — in the lineup and his absence hurts Houston in the Pirates vs Astros MLB odds.

The good news for Houston is that Alex Bregman has bounced back from a tough start to the year, José Altuve is still José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez is still Yordan Álvarez and the likes of Yainer Díaz and Jeremy Peña look like lineup mainstays.

This isn’t as formidable a Houston group as in recent years due to the Tucker injury but they have been able to make do and don’t really have any weak spots.

No lineup can effectively face Skenes, but the Astros have a high on-base percentage, a low strikeout rate (the second-fewest in the AL), and the dimensions of Minute Maid Park favor down-the-line power, making them a strong contender to damage him.

Take Astros In An Upset

With that said, and with the understanding that the Astros’ MLB run differential of +51 implies that they are a much better than their record would indicate, consider going with Houston as +116 moneyline underdogs at home.

The risk here is that Astros rookie starter Jake Bloss is only making his fourth MLB start and was shelled by the Oakland Athletics his last time out.

However, the A’s are one of the league’s best home run hitting teams and the Pirates are toward the bottom in most offensive statistics. Take Houston to finally give Skenes a MLB-caliber beatdown. Also, bet on over 7.5 runs (-105) as many runs will be scored.

For MLB news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

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