Recap of MLB Weekend Results: Home Teams Continue to Disappoint Bettors
Tampa Bay Rays Rolling, Take Two of Three from Yankees
Mondays are fun because we get to go over our MLB weekend results while putting a bow on this week’s MLB standings by division. Let’s digest the week’s MLB news today and overall betting results, making small adjustments to which teams to ride with over the next seven days. The Tampa Bay Rays continue to be a friend to bettors with 812 units won after taking five of six games at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates (3-0) and New York Yankees (2-1). Let’s get into our MLB weekend results recap with the betting number that will help players through another winning week.
Betting Home Teams Have Cost Bettors in 2023
You would think that betting on home teams would be a safe way to wager on Major League Baseball. The theory is right after all home teams are winning more than they’re losing (268-250) but that .517 winning percentage is costing the public a lot of money (-3936 units). It’s been 12 straight seasons, excluding 2020 (Covid) where betting the home team has been a losing proposition.
Last season, home teams were 1292-1134 (-10,378), good for a .533 percentage but was the biggest bankroll crusher since 2011 (-10,911). Despite the poor history, there must be a way to find some home teams or numbers that are profitable. Let’s bring these situations to light while exposing the culprits of poor returns. There are two teams that have been exceptional at home, the Tampa Bay Rays (+683 units) and the Boston Red Sox (+604 units).
The good news for the public is the Red Sox have yet to be found out by the bookmakers because they’ve buried themselves 7.5 games out of first place despite a 21-15 record. The Sox return home this weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals after traveling to Atlanta for a couple of games Tuesday and Wednesday. They’ll play six straight at Fenway Park.
The teams to stay away from at home are the Kansas City Royals (-1261 units) and the Oakland Athletics (-1035 units). If you simply feel more comfortable placing your cash behind teams on their own field, consider betting clubs that are favorites of -155 to -170. So far home teams that fall between those two numbers on the moneyline are 30-14 (+462 units).
Cardinals Are Easily the Game’s Biggest Disappointment
Betting on the St. Louis Cardinals has been one of the sure ways to make money through the years. Not since the 2017 season, when St. Louis finished 83-79 (-1073 units), have the Redbirds not been a solid bet night after night. Heading into the season, St. Louis was 393-312 (.558) good for 3,5551 units.
Only the Tampa Bay Rays (+4761 units) and Seattle Mariners (+4560) were better. This season, it’s fair to say that St. Louis has been baseball’s biggest disappointment with an 11-24 record (-1579 units). That’s the worst ROI in the majors, 168 units worse than the Oakland Athletics to give it perspective. The road doesn’t get easier starting with a three-game series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, their main rival, followed by a trip to Boston to take on the Red Sox who have been one of the best at home.
On May 22nd they return to Busch Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Reds, but with the aforementioned battles in addition to clashes with the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers after, we may be able to cash a lot of tickets against the Cardinals at a decent price because for now they’re still a respected team by the guys behind the counter. Let’s conclude our MLB weekend recap by giving you our best advice on how to attack the upcoming week.
Following Betting Percentages Pay Off
Baseball, along with hockey, is a difficult sport to beat because money lines often put a roadblock between the public and winning tickets over a long period of time. This week, we’re going to go with our gut on games because it’s deep enough into the season to know who each team is. Don’t worry about siding with the public because bettors are usually right. Does that come as a shock, it shouldn’t because players have enjoyed success on a single-game basis every year since we can remember, it’s money that hurts them after losing on a -300 favorite.
In 2023, teams receiving the highest percentage of money bet are 286-222 (+1090 units). Let’s see if we can boil that down some more. Teams that receive between 50.1% and 80% on the money line money wagered are 205-158 (.565) handing the public 1986 units of profit (Based on a $100 wager per game). We’re going to go with this system this week only because this is the most success the public have since 2016 when we started tracking the money. That means this is sure to turn at some point but let’s ride the better teams and the public for at least one more week. That does it for our MLB weekend recap, all the best this upcoming week.
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