Red Sox Look to Build on Win Streak, Reds Drop Third Straight Series
Sox One Game Out of Final Wild-Card Spot; Reds, Six Teams to Climb Over!
The Boston Red Sox (40-35) head to the Queen City to take on the Cincinnati Reds (35-39) in a series that features two baseball teams heading in opposite directions.
The Sox have won five straight games and seven of their last eight after sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays on the road. The Reds will try to win their first series in three tries after dropping two of three critical games against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- The Red Sox opened the series as a -112 road favorite with a total of 9 (-110).
All three games will be on NESN in Boston and Bally Sports Ohio.
The first pitches are 7:10 EST on Friday, 4:10 EST on Saturday, and 1:40 PST in the series finale. We start our Red Sox vs Reds prediction preview with an analysis of both clubs from a betting perspective.
Red Sox vs Reds 
Day/Time:
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
The Postseason Is A Reality For Red Sox
- Friday Starter: Kutter Crawford (3-6, 3.54)
- Saturday Starter: Nick Pivetta (4-4, 3.88)
- Sunday Starter: TBD
When the 2024 MLB predictions came out, many wondered about the Red Sox’s commitment to winning. If we’re being honest, we had Boston at the bottom of the American League East with a 78-84 record. Boston is 4.5 games ahead of Toronto from the bottom but is on pace for 86 wins or 12 more than we had predicted.
This officially comes as a shock to us and oddsmakers who also predicted a down year for Alex Cora’s team. Over the last 30 days, only the Washington Nationals (+7.80) have produced more profit for bettors with 6.43 units won behind a Red Sox record of 17-11.
More impressive is their record as an underdog in that span with 11 wins in 17 games (+7.29), also second to the Nationals (7.51). The Sox are just one game behind the Kansas City Royals for the last wild card spot and would be securely in an MLB playoff position if they could find a way to play better than an 18-20 at Fenway Park.
Boston’s next 12 games are against teams under .500, this could be the stretch of the season that Sox fans point to as the turning point starting with the Reds.
Reds Offense Non-Existent In Pittsburgh
- Friday Starter: Andrew Abbott (5-6, 3.42)
- Saturday Starter: Frankie Montas (3-5, 4.62)
- Sunday Starter: TBD
If the Pittsburgh Pirates find their way into the postseason, they will prove to be trouble with a starting staff that can shut anyone down over a short series. The Reds experienced that firsthand after scoring just three runs in three games at PNC Park, losing two of three.
They’ve now pushed across just eight runs in five MLB games, showing why they’re last in Major League Baseball in total hits (538), two less than the Chicago White Sox. Cincinnati is 26th in total bases (885) and seventh in total strikeouts with 8.97 per game.
They generate offense by running a ton (1st in stolen bases) but against the top staff in the league, they won’t be able to run if there isn’t anyone on base.
- The Reds also don’t win games they’re not expected to with a 16-27 record (-5.77) as an underdog.
Since 2018 the Reds are 47-51 in the game after playing the Pittsburgh Pirates (-10.02 units). On to our Red Sox vs Reds prediction.
Anticipate The Reds To Bounce Back Against The Sox
This is how we’re going to play this series. We need the Reds to win one of the first two games where they’ll likely be a small favorite.
We’re playing Cincinnati tonight (Friday) and then tomorrow (Saturday) with a little extra if they fail to get the job done to start the weekend series.
If they do cash out in game one, we’re done betting the rest of the series. No matter how much the Reds struggle on offense they have the pitching that will keep them in most series’ with a 3.80 team ERA (10th in baseball), limiting opponents to a .238 team batting average.
One reason why we’re going to bet and run is that we’re looking for a terrific start from Abbott or Montas before running off to another series because we never know how much run support our wager will get!
If the Reds are a favorite at some point this weekend, that’s a role they’ve been pretty good at in this MLB season with a 19-12 record (+2.49 units).
If that trend holds, it will be the first time Cincinnati has turned a profit as a favorite since 2016 when they were +6.12 units.
- Watch the betting patterns because when the Reds get more than 50% of the money wagered they are a respectable 13-7 (+3.04 units ) and 62-54 over the last two seasons.
Keep in mind if you’re betting totals that the MLB weather report shows that we’re in for a hot weekend with temperatures expected to be in the mid-90s with 60% humidity. Fun times!
That does it for our Red Sox vs Reds prediction and analysis, all the best with your MLB picks and parlays this weekend.
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