Red Sox Look to Topple NL-Leading Phillies

Phillies vs Red Sox Predictions: Value in Under

After splitting a pair of games against the rival New York Mets, the Philadelphia Phillies return stateside to face the Boston Red Sox. The teams begin a three-game interleague set Tuesday at Fenway Park with Zack Wheeler opposing Kutter Crawford.

Philadelphia is -1.5 (-105) on the run line and -180 on the moneyline for the opener, with Boston +1.5 (-115) and +150. Meanwhile, the projected total is 8 split evenly both ways (-110).

Who has the edge? Check out our series preview before making your Phillies vs Red Sox predictions.

Phillies logo Phillies vs Red Sox Red Sox logo

📊Records: Philadelphia Phillies (45-20) and Boston Red Sox (33-33)
📍Location: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
⏰Day/Time:
📺Streaming: NBCS-PH, TBS

Phillies vs Red Sox Betting Trends

The Philadelphia Phillies are 37-28 against the run line, including 6-3 over their last nine games. Philadelphia has been a bigger liability for Over/Under bettors, going just 27-34-4.

The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, are just 29-37 against the run line, including just 5-5 over their last 10 games. As for the Over/Under, Boston is 28-33-5.

That’s important to remember when making your Phillies vs Red Sox predictions.

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Head of the Pack

Philadelphia has opened a 9.0-game lead atop Atlanta in the National League East, separating itself among the World Series favorites. The Phillies are 7-2 over their last nine games after splitting a two-game set against the Mets in London.

The Phillies lead the Major Leagues with a .692 winning percentage, and their 45 wins are second behind the Yankees’ 46. They also have baseball’s second-best run differential (plus-108).

As such, Philadelphia has seen its World Series odds climb from +1300 to +600. Only the Dodgers (+290) and Yankees (+500) are now bigger favorites.

Starting pitching has been Philadelphia’s calling card. The Phillies lead the NL with 37 quality starts per MLB stats, as Zack Wheeler (+225), Ranger Suarez (+500), and Aaron Nola (+2000) are all priced 20/1 or better to win Cy Young. They also rank second in team ERA (2.93).

Because of that, Philadelphia has hit the Under in 55.7% of its games. That’s the fifth-highest rate in the Major Leagues. Keep that in mind when making your Phillies vs Red Sox predictions.

Projected for 89.5 wins, the Phillies are on pace to crush expectations. They’ve leapfrogged the Braves as -360 favorites to win the NL East after opening +300.

Average Does It

After splitting a four-game series against the White Sox, Boston continues to hover around .500. The Red Sox began the week 33-33, 12.5 games behind the first-place Yankees in the American League East.

Projected for 77.5 wins, they are pacing slightly ahead of expectations.

Because of that, the Red Sox should stay in the postseason mix. They are +425 to qualify.

MLB injuries remain Boston’s biggest issue. Star third baseman Rafael Devers missed Sunday’s 6-4, 10-inning win with left knee soreness. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill (knee) was also out, though manager Alex Cora sounded optimistic about O’Neill returning for Tuesday’s series opener. Meanwhile, first baseman Triston Casas (ribs) and outfielder Masataka Yoshida (thumb) are on the injured list, with Yoshida currently rehabbing.

Boston has performed well offensively despite those absences, ranking ninth in batting average (.247) and 11th in runs scored (296). The Red Sox scored 23 runs in four games against Chicago and are averaging 5.2 runs over the last 10 games.

Series Probables

⚾Game 1⚾

Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Zack Wheeler vs Kutter Crawford

Wheeler is 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA, establishing himself as a +225 frontrunner for NL Cy Young. He ranks top 10 in several key categories, including WHIP (0.97, 10th), strikeouts (91, 9th), and quality starts (10, tied for 2nd).

The Red Sox will counter with Crawford, who is 2-5 despite a 3.51 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Crawford has lost four of his last five starts, during which he’s allowed 22 runs over 28 innings.

Keep that in mind when making your MLB bets.

⚾Game 2⚾

Wednesday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Christopher Sanchez vs Nick Pivetta

Sanchez is 3-3 with a 2.71 ERA. The southpaw has gone at least six innings in four of his last six starts, serving as a strong option at the back of Philadelphia’s rotation. He has allowed only one run in 66.1 innings.

He will face Pivetta, who is 3-4 with a 3.40 ERA. Pivetta fired seven shutout innings in his last start, striking out nine in a 9-0 win over Atlanta on Wednesday. Home runs (eight allowed in 42.1 innings) have been an issue.

⚾Game 3⚾

Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Aaron Nola vs Tanner Houck

Nola’s eight wins are tied for third in baseball. He’s also 11th in WHIP (0.97) and 13th in ERA (2.77). He went seven shutout innings in his last start, giving up just two hits in a 2-0 victory over Milwaukee last Wednesday.

Houck, meanwhile, is 6-5 and ranks third in both ERA (1.91) and WHIP (0.92). The right-hander has climbed to +800 for AL Cy Young, third on the odds board behind Tarik Skubal (+125) and Corbin Burnes (+500).

Phillies vs Red Sox Odds

For MLB picks, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine


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