Reds Favored Over Cubs in Duel of Wild-Card Teams
Cubs vs Reds Series Preview: In the Thick of the Wild Card Race
The Chicago Cubs (31-31) visit the Cincinnati Reds (29-33) for a four-game series beginning Thursday. The Cubs are in second place in the MLB NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 5.0 games.
The Cincinnati Reds’ standings show them being 7.0 games behind Milwaukee and 1.5 games out of a wild-card berth. Both squads bring modest winning streaks into the series, with Chicago winning its last two and the Reds have won four straight.
The Cubs vs Reds series preview shows Javier Assad and Hunter Greene as the scheduled starters for Thursday’s opener. The Reds are -125 and the total is 9.5.
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Expert Pick: Subscribe below to get our Premium Insights!Offensively, there isn’t a huge difference between the two teams. Both are hitting .228 on the season, which puts them near the bottom of the league. Each team has hit 61 home runs on the season and scored 271 runs.
Both teams have .310 on-base percentages and the slugging percentage shows just a .004 difference in Cincinnati’s favor.
The Cincinnati Reds have a slight pitching advantage, allowing 260 runs compared to 281 for the Cubbies, although both teams have allowed 239 earned runs on the season. Chicago’s 42 unearned runs allowed is one of the worst marks in MLB. The Reds bullpen has been better than Chicago’s.
For the season, the Cubs are converting 56% of their save opportunities. The Reds are converting at an 86.7% ratio. The Cubs starting pitchers do have a slight advantage over Cincinnati’s.
One of the biggest differences between Chicago and Cincinnati so far this season has been pure luck. The Cubs have an x-W/L record of 30-32, while the Reds have a projected 32-30 mark.
Chicago has won once more than the numbers suggest, but the Reds are three wins short of where they should be. The MLB power rankings have the two teams almost identical, which the stats agree with.
Thursday’s Game
The MLB odds on the opening game are a shade high considering the Reds are just 3-9 when Greene starts. Much of that isn’t Greene’s fault, as the Reds have scored two runs or less in six of his 12 starts. He’s pitching to a 3.44 ERA for the season, so he’s doing his job. Cincinnati is just 1-6 when Greene starts at home.
Assad has pitched well for the Cubs but is going to go too deep in the game. He’s pitched six innings in three of his 12 starts. He didn’t pitch badly against the Reds last week, allowing two runs in 5 1/3 innings, although Cincinnati won the game. Greene allowed five runs in six innings. He allowed just three hits but walked five.
The total is a bit on the high side in this one and will follow the under trend here. The Cubs are 4-8 in totals with Assad and the Reds are 4-7-1 in totals when Greene starts, so take the under 9.5.
Friday’s Game
The Cubs vs Reds series preview shows Justin Steele and Nick Lodolo as the scheduled starters for Friday. Steele isn’t quite himself yet after missing time earlier in the season. He allowed one earned run in five innings against the Reds last week, but also four unearned runs. Chicago Cubs is just 1-6 when he starts.
Lodolo has pitched well and the Reds are 6-2 when he starts. He did enough against the Cubs last start to get the Reds the victory, although he’s been a little better on the road this season.
The Reds should be small favorites in this one and are probably the side to be on in this game.
Saturday’s Game
Ben Brown is listed as Chicago’s starter for Saturday and he’s pitched well despite his 0-2 record. The Cubs are 3-4 when he takes the mound and he has a 2.83 ERA. He has pitched a little better on the road, where the Cubs are 3-2 when he starts. He didn’t have his best effort against the Reds last start, allowing five runs in five innings.
Abbott has been solid for the Reds this season, pitching to a 3.39 ERA. Cincinnati is 6-6 when he starts and 2-3 at home.
He’s only had what you could call one poor start on the season and has been fairly consistent. The Reds are 0-4-1 in totals when he starts at home and will tag along with the trend and take the under in this game.
Sunday’s Game
The Cubs vs Reds series preview has Shota Imanaga and Frankie Montas as the scheduled starters for the series finale. Imanaga has been brilliant this season, although his last two starts haven’t been his best.
The Milwaukee Brewers roughed him up two starts ago and the Cubs allowed four unearned runs in his last start. Chicago is still 9-2 when he starts and his ERA is 1.88.
Montas had his best outing of the season last start, allowing just one hit in seven innings. He’s been pretty average most of the season and the Reds are 4-7 when he starts. He has pitched a little bit better at home. The total might be a bit low due to Imanaga’s ERA but would play under 8.5 or higher in this game.
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