Reds vs Brewers Series Predictions: Totals Go Up and Down
Brewers Maintain NL Central Lead While the Reds are in the Mix
The Cincinnati Reds (56-59) head to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers (65-49) at American Family Field. The Reds continue their road trip after taking three of four from the Miami Marlins. Cincinnati won’t catch Milwaukee in the NL Central, but they are just five games out of the final wild-card spot. The Reds vs Brewers predictions are in favor of the hosts for the opener at -135 on the moneyline and a total of 8.5 (over -115).
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The Brew Crew went into Atlanta and handed the Braves a three-game sweep, outsourcing the Bravos 34-12 and strengthening their MLB playoff odds.
Milwaukee leads the St. Louis Cardinals by seven games for the top spot in the National League Central.
Let’s start our with our game one preview.
Game One
- Carson Spiers (Cin) 4-3, 3.59 vs Aaron Civale (Mil) 2-8, 5.14
We’re getting some plus money with today’s top MLB picks and parlay consideration. With 98% of the money and tickets coming in on the over to start the early wagering, we’ll sit back and see how far the juice increases while allowing us to get the best number on the under.
We think we can get at least +105 before the game goes off. Carson Spiers is coming off two straight effective outings after allowing just three earned runs over his last 10.2 innings (2.53 ERA).
The former Clemson star allowed six hits, two walks, and nine strikeouts in those match-ups where opponents hit just .162. Over his last five starts, Spiers is 3-2, allowing 11 earned runs in his previous 26.1 innings (3.76 ERA).
One of the reasons why the public is on the over is because Aaron Civale was smashed in his last outing against the Washington Nationals when he lasted four innings, giving up seven hits, five earned runs, one walk, and three strikeouts.
- Over his last three starts, Civale has allowed 10 earned in his previous 13.2 innings. Look for Spiers will be effective enough to keep the Brewers’ offense at bay after an emotional series in Atlanta.
Look for Spiers to catch the Brewers napping, take the under 8.5 in game one.
Game Two
- Nick Martinez (Cin) 6-5, 3.43 vs Tobias Myers (Mil) 6-5, 3.02
This is an MLB matchup where we’ll see the ball in play more than in game one with two pitchers who aren’t known for their strikeout totals.
Martinez has just 68 in 84 innings this season while Myers has sat down 75 hitters in his previous 86.1 innings. The Milwaukee Brewers are 63-45-6 to the over this season after cashing in on nine of their last 11 games, including all three in Atlanta where run production averaged 15.33 runs per game.
- The Reds skew under (53-58-4) in 2024 but heading into the series they own a streak of six straight overs that is likely to reach seven if game one cooperates.
It will be interesting to see how far manager David Bell wants to push Martinez who has come out of the bullpen for most of the season. In his last outing against Miami, Martinez threw five innings after shutting out the Fish in four hits.
Only one other time this season had he threw more than five innings and that was in late April when he took one for the MLB team after allowing 11 hits and five earned in a 5-0 loss to Philadelphia.
With Pat Murphy hoping to get at least five innings out of Myers, you can bet that you must include each team’s bullpen in your handicapping. As for us, we’re going over the total in game two.
Birthday W for Nick Martinez‼️ pic.twitter.com/KPQjmVMB5k
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 6, 2024
Game Three
- Nick Lodolo (Cin) 9-4, 3.93 vs Colin Rea (Mil) 10-3, 3.38
We always like to go with the stronger team at home to end the series but not at the expense of damaging our bankroll.
It’s your call what your limit is based on the amount of money you have to work with but we all know that anything over the -200 mark is a pass.
We suggest Milwaukee because the number should be reasonable with Lodolo getting the ball. The lefty is a strikeout pitcher who rebounded nicely after a horrible start at home against the Chicago Cubs with a six-inning, two-hit, two earned runs effort against Miami.
- Despite decent-looking numbers, Lodolo has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 29.1 innings (5.53 ERA). Rea has allowed just four earned runs in his previous 23 innings (1.57 ERA).
That’s why we’re compelled to lean toward Milwaukee. The MLB prospect rankings show the Reds with four prospects that should contribute next year and put them into the postseason, unfortunately, we think this series is the beginning of the end for Cincinnati in 2024 after a ton of hype heading into the year.
That does it for our Reds vs Brewers series predictions, all the best with your wagers.
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