Reds vs Giants Series Preview: Can The Reds Continue To Defy The Odds?
The Reds Didn't Expect To Be Competing for MLB Playoffs So Early in Rebuild
The NL Wild Card race is wide open this year.
Only three teams can earn an NL Wild Card spot. But two of the six teams fighting for those three spots include the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds.
This three-game series between the Giants and Reds is critical. The Giants have slumped a bit over the last couple of weeks. Now they’ve fallen out of a top three spot. Meanwhile, the Reds have played better and have a higher probability of making the playoffs after their last few weeks.
As we approach September, every game counts much more than before. A bad losing streak to end the season will derail any chances of making a postseason push.
Which team will step up and win this critical NL series?
Here’s a breakdown of the Reds vs Giants series preview. It will be a fun three days watching these teams get after it.
Reds vs Giants 
Day/Time:
Location: Oracle Park
Joey Votto Back on Injured List
The Reds have been hit with so many injuries this season. It’s hit them primarily with their pitching staff. However, the Reds learned of Joey Votto‘s shoulder discomfort and had to send him to the 10-day injured list late last week. Votto had been on the MLB injury report throughout the first half of the season with another injury. This will be his second stint on the injured list in his 17th season in the MLB.
The Reds are chasing their first playoff berth since 2020, a pandemic-shortened season that many analysts and fans don’t even count.
Votto was a great veteran in the clubhouse filled with young talent. He played 51 games this season and hit 13 home runs with 33 RBIs.
While Votto only hit .200 this year, he still had an OBP of .303 and was great around the clubhouse. He’ll still be around but won’t be on the field soon.
The Reds called up Nick Senzel from Triple-A Louisville for Votto. Senzel has hit a .219 average in the majors this season but has nine home runs and 37 RBIs.
The Giants Have No True All-Stars!
Think about it.
Tell me one mega all-star on the Giants this year.
You can’t.
It’s because they don’t have one.
Look up and down that San Francisco lineup. You won’t find one regular player that is an All-Star caliber player. They’ve got Wilmer Flores hitting in the three-spot against lefties. They’ve got Michae Conforto and Joc Pederson as the elite bats against righties. None of those guys are All-Stars.
But despite all of that, the Giants are fighting for a playoff spot in the National League. The Giants don’t get the credit that teams like the Rays do. They’re willing to spend more. But that analytics department has done just as well.
The Giants have also used 12 different starting pitchers this season. Only Logan Webb and Alex Cobb have lasted throughout the entire season. San Francisco enjoys using openers for some of their starters, and it’s worked well enough.
Wilmer Flores leads the team in home runs with under 20. J.D. Davis leads the team with less than 60 RBIs. These are just mostly role players. But somehow, manager Gabe Kapler and the Giants’ front office find ways to get the best out of their players.
They wanted to spend money last year. They tried to get Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. But they’re likely feeling better about losing out on those stars. They’re competing for a playoff spot, while teams like the Padres and the Mets, who spent a boatload of cash over the offseason, won’t see the playoffs.
Below, we’ll look at the probable in the Reds vs Giants series preview.
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Monday, 9:45 pm ET
Andrew Abbott vs Kyle Harrison
We’ve got an exciting Game 1 of the series between two highly regarded rookie pitchers.
Andrew Abbott has been up longer in the MLB. He’s a lefty for the Reds, who has been challenged recently. He’s allowed a .242 ISO and wOBA of .392 to his last 110 batters. Abbott has only thrown 87.6 pitches per start in the previous 30 days and has walked nearly 11% of batters.
Abbott’s strikeout rate is still high, but he’s allowed 31% of line drives and fly balls while inducing only 31% of grounders. He was better earlier this season. Fatigue might be settling in.
Abbott will face Kyle Harrison, who still doesn’t have his first major win. He’s got a 5.40 ERA and five strikeouts against 16 batters. Harrison dominated righties but struggled against lefties. It was clear the amount of potential he had with his strikeouts in his first start. Those strikeouts will likely continue against the Reds.
Cincinnati has been awful against lefties recently. Only Matt McLain and Spencer Steer have put up above-average numbers against lefties over the last month.
Meanwhile, the Giants have hit above a .200 ISO and wOBA of nearly .340 against lefties in the last 30 days. San Francisco has the edge in this game.
The Giants are -129 on the moneyline, with the Reds at +119. The total is at 8.0, with the Over slightly juiced to -118. I’d back the Giants at -120 here.âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Tuesday, 9:45 pm ET
Brandon Williamson vs Alex Cobb
The Reds will throw out against lefty at the Giants in Game 2 of the Reds vs Giants series preview. This time, it’ll be Brandon Williamson. He’s held teams to a .123 ISO and wOBA of .298 in the last 30 days. If the Giants want to take advantage of a lefty, they’ll likely have an easier time getting to Abbott than Williamson.
Williamson has struck out 26.3% of righties as a left-handed pitcher. He’s seen more righties than lefties with teams trying to play the lefty-righty matchup against him. It hasn’t worked lately.
The Giants will send out Alex Cobb for the second matchup. Cobb has allowed a .311 ISO and wOBA of .415 to his last 114 batters. He’s been awful against lefties and righties. It hasn’t mattered who has come up to the plate.
Meanwhile, the Reds’ projected lineup has hit a .303 ISO and wOBA of .384 against righties last month. No batter in the lineup has hit an ISO below .167 against righties. The Reds have struck out at a very high rate. But once the ball is put into play, the Reds are golden.
Conversely, the Giants haven’t had much success against righties in the last month. Michael Conforto has hit a .375 wOBA, and Joc Pederson has an ISO of .159. But other than Wilmer Flores, no San Francisco bat has performed at a high level against righties.
I’d give this game to the Reds.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Tuesday, 9:45 pm ET
Brandon Williamson vs Alex Cobb
Hunter Greene returned to the mound two weeks ago after a long hiatus on the injured list. Those baseball scores have been ugly.
Greene has allowed a .622 ISO and wOBA of .620 to his last 45 batters. He’s only struck out 17.8% of batters since his return and also walked 17.8%.
Greene was supposed to be the ace pitcher of the staff. Maybe he was rushed back, or he’s just getting his feel back on the mound. However, right now, his starts have been easy MLB predictions.
He’ll face Logan Webb of the Giants. He’s been tremendous recently, holding teams to a .133 ISO and wOBA of .286. Webb has also walked under 2% of batters in the last 30 days.
His strikeout rate isn’t high, but he’s a righty who has been much better than Greene over the last couple of starts. I’ve got the Giants winning the rubber game of the three-game series.
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