Reds vs Pirates Series Predictions: Skenes Gets Start Monday

Cincinnati Visits Pittsburgh in Battle of Wild Card Hopefuls

The Cincinnati Reds (34-37) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (34-37) for a three-game series starting Monday. Both teams are 1.0 games out of a wild card spot. Neither team is playing great, but they’re not playing terrible. That’s keeping them alive for a playoff berth in this season of parity. Neither team has shown a big difference in home or away results. The Reds vs Pirates series predictions shows Carson Spiers coming out of the bullpen to make his first start of the year. He’ll be opposed by rookie Paul Skenes. The Pirates are -200, and the total is 8. Pittsburgh is +111 on the run line at Pirates -1.5.

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The Reds score slightly more than the numbers say they should. The team batting is No. 26, and they’re tied for No. 17 in home runs, but they are scoring 4.3 runs per game, which is right at the Major League Baseball average. The Reds are the MLB leaders in stolen bases, which has helped runners move around the bases.

The pitching has been average, with the Reds No. 14 in team ERA. The bullpen has done pretty well and is an impressive 17 for 19 in save attempts. The bullpen has been better at home, while the starters have better numbers on the road.

Pittsburgh’s offense is scoring 4.1 runs per game. The Pirates are No. 20 in team batting average and No. 23 in home runs. Overall, Pittsburgh is a little below average and scores about the same at home or on the road.

The pitching staff hasn’t been awful, with the Pirates at No. 18 in team ERA, but the starters have been better than the bullpen. The relief pitchers have a collective 4.65 ERA and are 19 for 33 in save attempts. Pittsburgh needs to improve to stay in the MLB playoff bracket picture.

Reds logo Reds vs Pirates Pirates logo

📍Location: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
⏰Day/Time: 📺Streaming: BSOH

Monday’s Game

Spiers has pitched well in five appearances for Cincinnati this season. He has a 2.33 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings. Spiers did pitch 5 2/3 scoreless innings in last appearance, so he’s capable of chewing up some innings. He made several starts last season, but this is his first in 2024.

Skenes has lives up to the hype and has a solid 3-0 record with a 2.43 ERA. He has 46 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings and has only walked six. His control has been one of the biggest keys to his success this season.

Since Skenes is a heralded rookie who gets a lot of strikeouts he’s overvalued a little bit in this game. He’s coming off one of his best starts of the year. The problem is he’s unlikely to go more than six innings, meaning a few innings of the Pittsburgh bullpen. If Spiers can keep the Reds in the game, they have a chance at huge odds.

Tuesday’s Game

The Reds vs Pirates series predictions show Nick Lodolo and Bailey Falter as the scheduled starters for Tuesday. Both are left-handed pitchers, and Pittsburgh has fared a little better against southpaws than Cincinnati. Lodolo has better numbers than Falter, so it’s all pretty much a wash.

The Reds are 8-2 when Lodolo starts and just 2-7-1 when he takes the mound. His road numbers are a shade better, and he has won all three of his starts against left-handers. The Reds are 6-14 against LHP when somebody other than Lodolo takes the mound.

Falter is 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA and Pittsburgh has gone 6-7 when he starts. His last two starts haven’t been his best, as he’s lasted just four innings both times. Falter is a decent candidate to bounce back a little bit here, and the under could be the way to go.

Wednesday’s Game

The Reds vs Pirates series predictions have Hunter Greene and Mitch Keller as the starters in Wednesday’s final game. Greene hasn’t pitched bad and is 5-2 with a 3.61 ERA. The problem is the Reds are 0-7 when Greene doesn’t get a decision and are 5-9 when he starts. The Reds are 3-3 when he starts on the road and he has a 3.06 ERA. Cincinnati has won three of his last four starts.

Keller is having a pretty strong season for the Pirates and is 8-4 with a 3.36 ERA. Pittsburgh is 9-5 when he starts and he’s pitched better at home. The Pirates have won six of his last seven starts.

A bit of a tough game from a handicapping aspect. The MLB scores show the Pirates are 2-4 in totals when Keller pitches at home. The Reds are 3-3 with Greene on the road, so you can make a slight case for the under in this game.

Reds vs Pirates Odds

For MLB odds, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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