Regular Season Win Odds For The 2023 MLB Season

With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, pitchers and catchers are starting to trickle into MLB Spring Training sites across Florida and Arizona in the surest sign that baseball season is almost upon. Real games — albeit Spring Training exhibitions — begin at the end of next week which really kicks baseball season into gear. So, it makes sense that regular season win totals over/unders and odds for the 2023 MLB season are finally on the board.

It might be a little tough to think about what each team’s win total will be due to the new MLB schedule. Now, teams will only play each of their divisional opponents 13 times (four series) and will also play every team in baseball in at least one series. That balance significantly reduces the amount of exposure teams will have to the other teams in their division but does even out the playing field, so to speak, from an overall strength of schedule perspective.

Let’s go through each team and discuss, briefly, what they’re looking like before the season starts:

Contenders

Houston Astros Odds:

What else is there to say about the Astros? After winning the World Series for the second time in five seasons, Houston is poised to be one of the best teams in baseball yet again even after losing Justin Verlander.

The pickup of José Abreu will be a nice mid-order boost to an already-strong lineup and Houston’s rotations is strong from top to bottom. This team is a juggernaut and, even though it won’t be able to beat up on the AL West as much as in recent years, the weak division certainly should help Houston eclipse 100 wins again.

Los Angeles Dodgers Odds:

It was a pretty quiet offseason for the Dodgers, who lost a ton of regulars — Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Tyler Anderson, Cody Bellinger and others — and didn’t make many impact pickups.

Still, though, the core is elite and Los Angeles is, justifiably, still favored in the NL West. But, there is a pathway for the Dodgers to take a step back even if their win total odds don’t say so. It’s just hard to bet against a team led by Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.

Atlanta Braves Odds:

The Braves sneaked by the Mets at the tail end of the 2022 season to win their fifth-straight NL East crown. But, they aren’t guaranteed to do so again due to their somewhat-surprising offseason leaving a couple of lineup holes.

Atlanta is still loaded at the plate and on the mound yet the losses of Dansby Swanson, Kenley Jansen and William Contreras shouldn’t go unnoticed.

New York Mets Odds:

New York was on the wrong side of the NL East race in the MLB standings last season. Couple their late-season collapse with a disappointing postseason showing and there was a bad taste left in Mets’ fans’ mouths from the 2022 campaign.

It didn’t help when Jacob deGrom (and Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt) all left in free agency but Billy Eppler did a good job to replace them with comparable arms while making solid pickups on the fringes of the lineup and bullpen. It’s always nice to slide Justin Verlander into a starting rotation.

New York Yankees Odds:

Across New York City, the Yankees are coming off a fairly easy AL East division win and yet another frustrating playoff exit at the hands of the Astros.

New York’s major offseason goal was accomplished when Aaron Judge decided to sign long-term in the Bronx so getting Carlos Rodón and retaining Anthony Rizzo is icing on the proverbial cake. The Yankees are still the top dogs in the division until either the Blue Jays or Rays can knock them off. The over is a good take here.

San Diego Padres Odds:

Talk about a star-laden team. After surprising the baseball world by signing Xander Bogaerts (effectively moving Fernando Tatís, Jr. to the outfield), San Diego boasts a ridiculous top-four in Bogaerts, Tatís, Manny Machado and Juan Soto.

It still might not be enough to dethrone the Dodgers but San Diego, on paper, should be much improved. The question with the Padres is depth on offense — the bench is weak — and in the rotation.

Toronto Blue Jays Odds:

For the second time in three seasons, the Blue Jays got swept in the Wild Card round in 2022, sending Toronto into an offseason where change felt certain.

In reality, Toronto wasn’t too active but in trading for Daulton Varsho and signing Chris Bassitt, the Blue Jays added some high-end talent to complement a formidable top of the lineup and top of the rotation. It feels like their odds for the 2023 MLB season are a little low.

In The Mix

Philadelphia Phillies Odds:

It might feel like a knock to have the reigning NL pennant winner under the “In The Mix” header, particularly after it added Trea Turner, but the Phillies played way above their heads in the 2022 playoffs and will be without Bryce Harper for roughly half of the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.

This team has tons of power yet still has serious defensive concerns (other than at catcher and shortstop) and does not have a great second half of the lineup. The Phillies aren’t on the same level as New York or Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Rays Odds:

Tampa Bay took a significant step back in 2022, winning just 86 games and getting swept by the Guardians in the Wild Card round.

As usual, the Rays had a very quiet offseason and are hoping that improved pitcher health — namely the return of Tyler Glasnow — can spur a resurgence. Their one major acquisition, Zach Eflin, could prove to be a valuable one as well after he essentially saved his career with Philadelphia.

St. Louis Cardinals Odds:

Using a strong second half to cruise to a NL Central title, the Cardinals seemed poised for a big postseason run. However, they were stunned by the Phillies — at home — in the Wild Card round.

The tough exit didn’t lead to too many roster changes, though, as St. Louis only lost a few free agents (most notably José Quintana) and made just one big addition: former division rival Willson Contreras. If he can stay healthy, Contreras can be the big power bat that St. Louis needs other than Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Seattle Mariners Odds:

87.5 wins may seem a little low for a Seattle team on the rise. But, the Mariners lost a lot of key free agents and while the lineup and defense should get better with Kolten Wong and Teoscar Hernández, the middling rotation looks the same and the bullpen is bound for some regression.

If Julio Rodríguez continues toward superstardom, he can leads this team to 90 wins but Seattle might be putting too much offensive responsibility on his shoulders.

Cleveland Guardians Odds:

It’s very hard to predict how Cleveland will be from year-to-year because of the Guardians’ reliance on young players, particularly pitchers, but it’s safe to say that MLB will be more on notice of Cleveland in 2023 than it was in 2022.

So much of Cleveland’s young talent — from Steven Kwan to Andrés Giménez to Oscar Gonzalez to Triston McKenzie to basically everyone in the bullpen — broke out and is primed for another big year in baseball’s worst division. There’s a reason Cleveland’s over is -125.

Milwaukee Brewers Odds:

The Brewers were one of MLB’s biggest disappointments in 2022, missing the postseason for the first time since 2017. Milwaukee’s offense was way too inconsistent so the trade for William Contreras should be a huge boost for the Brewers regardless of whether he’s a DH or behind the plate.

Jesse Winker is an interesting buy-low candidate even if giving up Kolten Wong was a big price. It just doesn’t feel like Milwaukee did enough to come close to the Cardinals or even comfortably out-pace the very active Chicago Cubs.

On The Fringe

Chicago White Sox Odds:

Chicago is hoping for a lot of internal improvement, especially in the injury department. The White Sox reached a bit to give Andrew Benintendi a five-year-deal which could look great if he stays on the field and only needs to get on base for the White Sox’ power bats but could look very bad if he is relied on to provide that power.

José Abreu will really be missed as he was such a steady anchor for a team with so many high-variance bats. This team is a true wild card in more ways than one.

Texas Rangers Odds:

For the second-straight winter, Texas splurged on the open market; this time, the Rangers focused on pitching instead of the lineup.

Multi-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were all added to supplement a starting rotation that was one of the worst in baseball a season ago — and was a major reason why Texas won just 68 games. There is significant bust potential with this roster but it should be able to be on the right side of .500 based on starpower alone.

San Francisco Giants Odds:

Giants fans surely viewed San Francisco’s 2022 offseason as an underwhelming one as it saw the Giants add two injury-prone outfielders (Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto) and two back-end rotation pieces (Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea) while San Francisco’s “big fish” (Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge) swam back to their old teams after it looked like the Giants locked them up.

It’s hard to envision much improvement on the Giants’ 81 wins from a year ago so their odds for the 2023 MLB season look right on the money.

Minnesota Twins Odds:

Keeping Correa in a wild turn of events after he agreed to terms with two different teams was an enormous boon for the Twins, who couldn’t get out of their own way last year en route to a 78-84 finish.

The addition of Pablo Lopez at the top of the rotation, even at the cost of Luis Arráez, is worthwhile as are the fringe improvements with Christian Vásquez and Michael A.

Taylor as a defensive specialist. Still, the key for Minnesota is the health of Byron Buxton which is always impossible to predict, however.

Los Angeles Angels Odds:

Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury are big upgrades for the Angels’ lineup but, as is the case every year, Los Angeles’ success depends on how many games Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon play and whether anyone in the rotation (other than Shohei Ohtani) or anyone in the bullpen (in general) can consistently get guys out.

The Angels should win well over 81 games and, for a good chunk of the 2022 season, they appeared ready to do so. Then, things fell apart as they always seem to do. Can Phil Nevin get the most out of this talented team? The jury is out on that.

Chicago Cubs: 77.5 wins (over -120; under -110)

Vegas might not love the Cubs but you can’t fault Chicago for a lack of creativity this offseason. By bringing in Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer and Jameson Taillon, the Cubs added plenty of current (and former) stars who add excitement and production to a pretty young group that already has some intriguing incumbent pieces. Don’t sleep on Chicago making some noise in a weak division.

Boston Red Sox Odds:

Even though the Red Sox did extend Rafael Devers, sign some much-needed back-end bullpen help and scoop up solid veterans in Justin Turner and Adam Duvall, it’s clear that Boston is well behind New York, Toronto and Tampa Bay (and maybe Baltimore) in a very strong AL East.

The money used on Masataka Yoshida could have been better used to be part of a legitimately competitive offer to Xander Bogaerts or to a free agent starter with a little more oomph than 36-year-old Corey Kluber. A strange offseason in Beantown.

Miami Marlins Odds:

Nothing seems to ever change much for the Marlins who, once again, traded a key member of their rotation (Pablo Lopez) for some lineup help (Luis Arráez) but still didn’t do enough otherwise to significantly improve their 2023 season outlook.

Arráez, Jean Segura and Jazz Chisholm is a nice start to the lineup yet there isn’t much juice behind them. Miami’s young rotation is nice too but it can’t drive in runs for itself.

Baltimore Orioles Odds:

As you can see from the Orioles’ win total odds, there is plenty of optimism that Baltimore will be able to win 77 games or more after going 83-79 last year.

Baltimore didn’t lose much talent and, in adding Cole Irwin, beefed up a rotation that could get All-Star John Means back at one point. The sky’s the limit for Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and the Orioles’ other top prospects, some of whom could also see the Majors this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Odds:

This year’s Diamondbacks could be last year’s Orioles as Arizona has a very nice young offensive core, some good veteran pitching and is in a division that isn’t particularly formidable beyond the Dodgers and Padres.

Arizona should improve on its 74-88 record from 2022 even after the trade of Daulton Varsho which netted the Diamondbacks a useful player in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno.

Longshots

Detroit Tigers Odds:

There was hope that the Tigers’ better-than-expected 2021 campaign would lead to a competitive 2022 season. However, Detroit took a major step back, winning just 66 games as two of the Tigers’ biggest offseason additions — Javier Baéz and Austin Meadows — really struggled at the plate.

Detroit was at the bottom of baseball in most major offensive categories and, due to injury, the Tigers’ vaunted starting pitchers prospects just haven’t panned out. The outlook for 2023 isn’t much brighter.

Kansas City Royals Odds:

Kansas City finished just one game behind Detroit last year and figure to be in a similar position once again. The Royals do have plenty of young bats who can have breakout campaigns, besides Bobby Witt Jr. of course, but there’s a lot of variability in the lineup and the starting rotation isn’t good enough to carry this team if the offense has the kinds of ups and downs that young hitters tend to experience.

Pittsburgh Pirates Odds:

The Pirates still haven’t traded Bryan Reynolds but even he can’t save a Pittsburgh roster that, beyond the flashy names of Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz, has too many uninspiring veterans clogging up a roster that should be much better by this point in a rebuild.

It will be cool for Andrew McCutchen to be back in Pittsburgh but there isn’t much reason to believe the Pirates will even be able to come close to 70 wins, especially considering how a mid-reason Reynolds trade is likely and could be the precursor to other regulars-for-prospects deals.

Colorado Rockies Odds:

Besides some mid-level bullpen pickups to replace guys like Carlos Estévez and Alex Colomé, the Rockies look basically the same as they did in 2022 when they won just 68 games.

Granted, Kris Bryant missing most of the season due to injury zapped a lot of Colorado‘s offensive upside but, even if Bryant returns to All-Star form, the rest of the team does not have enough talent to expect it to climb out of the NL West cellar. There’s isn’t much MLB-ready prospect help on the way either outside of shortstop Ezequiel Tovar.

Cincinnati Reds Odds:

Cincinnati is an interesting team because while the Reds were terrible last season — and could never recover from a historically bad start — the middle of their lineup isn’t atrocious (at full strength) and the rotation is headlined by three young arms who, if things turn right, could anchor a team that wins 70+ games.

That’s a lot of ifs, though, and key pieces such as Alexis Díaz and new pickup Luke Weaver could be dealt during the season. The NL Central isn’t great, however, so the Reds could be improved.

Washington Nationals Odds:

Washington is the Oakland of the NL right now, albeit with a little more excitement. The fruits of the Trea Turner, Max Scherzer and Juan Soto trades — namely Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore — will be able to develop in a low-pressure environment while veterans like Dom Smith, Corey Dickerson and Jeimer Candelario look to rebuild their value and, for Washington, hopefully garner Trade Deadline interest. In the stacked NL East, 62 wins won’t be easy for the Nationals to reach.

Oakland Athletics Odds:

The A’s continue to do what the A’s do: Serve as a glorified farm system for the rest of baseball. So, the 2023 season — like the 2022 season before it — will be a painful one for Oakland fans as they continue to slog through a rebuild that is starting to look like an endless one. The A’s won 60 games a year ago but, without Sean Murphy, that could be a stretch in an improved AL West.

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