Rivalry Renewed as Red Sox Meet Surging Yankees

Boston a Liability in Yankees vs Red Sox Predictions

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox rekindle Major League Baseball’s best rivalry for a three-game series at Fenway Park. Luis Gil faces Brayan Bello in Friday’s opener (6:30 p.m. ET), the first of 13 meetings this season.

New York is -1.5 (+100) on the run line and -150 on the moneyline, with Boston +1.5 (-120) and +125, respectively. Meanwhile, the Over/Under is 9.5, the highest projected total on the night. Bettors can get the Over at +102.

The Yankees are also -180 favorites to win the series, compared to +160 for the Red Sox.

Will the Yankees take care of business? Check out our MLB game preview before making your Yankees vs Red Sox predictions.

Yankees vs Red Sox

Records: New York Yankees (49-22), Boston Red Sox (35-34)
Day/Time:
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MT
Streaming: ESPN+

Yankees vs Red Sox Betting Trends

The New York Yankees are 43-28 against the run line, including 25-14 away from home. The Yankees have covered 60.6% of the time, the second-highest rate in baseball. They have been a much bigger liability against the Over/Under, going just 33-36-2.

The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, are just 31-38 against the run line. Boston has covered only 11 of its 35 games at Fenway Park. As for the Over/Under, Boston is 30-35-4.

Be sure to keep this in mind when making your Yankees vs Red Sox predictions.

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Judge & Soto Powering Bronx Bombers

The New York Yankees standings are uber-impressive. Over the last month, the Yankees lead the league in runs while opening a 2.5-game lead in the American League East. They own baseball’s best win percentage (.690) and run differential (+127).

The Yankees kicked off their seven-game road trip by thumping Kansas City. They took three of four from the Royals, outscoring them 28-12.

With a 7-3 mark over their last 10 games, the Yankees have seen their World Series odds climb to +500. They are now the second-best favorite behind the Dodgers (+300), who sit atop the National League West at 42-28.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto continue to power the Yankees’ hot start. Soto is hitting .320 with 17 home runs, 54 RBI and a 1.025 OPS. Judge, meanwhile, is batting .302 with a 1.118 OPS and leads baseball with 25 homers. Judge is now a -125 favorite to win his second AL MVP in three seasons, well ahead of Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. (+400) and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson (+475) among the best MLB players.

The Yankees have been especially profitable for bettors, covering in 12 of their last 14 games to improve to 43-28 against the run line. Their 60.6% cover rate is the second-highest in baseball behind Baltimore’s 61.8%.

Keeping with the Competition

The Boston Red Sox (35-34) got a strong start on their six-game homestand, beating the NL-leading Phillies two of three to keep pace in the AL wild card race. The Red Sox outscored Philadelphia 18-13 throughout the series.

The Red Sox trail the Yankees by 13.0 games in the division but are just 2.0 games behind Minnesota for the final wild card spot. They are +380 to make the postseason, with oddsmakers holding some skepticism about their staying power.

Boston’s lineup has stayed productive despite a slew of injuries. First baseman Triston Casas (ribs) and outfielder Wilyer Abreu (ankle) are both expected to return within the next month, while shortstop Trevor Story (shoulder) is out for the remainder of the season. The Red Sox are top-10 in baseball in batting average (.250) and runs (314) and 11th in homers (74).

Their pitching has also performed well, registering baseball’s fourth-lowest ERA (3.41).

Despite their modest record, the Red Sox have been a liability for bettors. They are 31-38 against the run line, including just 11-24 at home. Their 44.9% cover rate is tied for fifth-lowest in baseball.

Series Probables

Game 1

Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Luis Gil vs Brayan Bello

Gil carries a 2.04 ERA and has been a revelation after winning the No. 5 spot in the rotation coming out of spring training. He ranks fourth in WHIP (0.93) and is tied for third in wins (eight). The 26-year-old is now a -160 favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, leapfrogging Oakland closer Mason Miller (+300) and Boston’s Abreu (+550). He is also +1800 to win Cy Young.

The right-hander opposes Bello, whose ERA sits at 4.78 following a string of tough starts against the Tigers (6 innings, 4 ER) and White Sox (4.2 innings, 5 ER). He pitched to a 5.66 ERA in May despite winning three of his four outings.

That’s important to remember when making your Yankees vs Red Sox predictions.

Game 2

Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Carlos Rodon vs Cooper Criswell

After a miserable first season in New York, Rodon has been a key piece in the Yankees’ resurgence. The two-time All-Star ranks second in baseball with nine runs and owns a 2.93 ERA, a considerable improvement over last year’s mark of 6.85. The Yankees have won his last seven outings.

Boston will counter with Criswell, who is 3-3 with a 4.13 ERA. Criswell has worked past the fifth inning just once (5.1 innings against Tampa Bay on May 21) this season.

Game 3

Sunday, 7 p.m. ET
Marcus Stroman vs Kutter Crawford

Stroman went 5.2 scoreless innings in his last start, a 10-1 win over Kansas City, and owns a 2.82 ERA. Walks (34 in 79.2 innings) have been the only issue in an otherwise strong season.

Crawford, meanwhile, has a 3.47 ERA despite a 2-6 record. He had a tough May, pitching to a 5.14 in six starts. Boston has lost his last seven appearances.

For MLB expert picks, sports betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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