San Diego Padres at New York Mets Series Preview and Odds
Padres, Mets Looking Up, Looking for More
After a slow start to the MLB season, the San Diego Padres are starting to put things together a bit as they’ve won five of their last six games and are the only over-.500 team in the NL West besides the Dodgers.
They’ll try to extend their winning streak as they visit the New York Mets this weekend for a three-game series at Citi Field. New York has won six of eight and just had a big walkoff win over the Miami Marlins.
- This Padres vs Mets preview notes that San Diego is slightly favored on the moneyline (-112) and is +140 at -1.5 runs on the runline. The total is eight runs.
San Diego swept the Oakland Athletics this week on the strength of some really good starting pitching, a far cry from the Padres’ series in Arizona when they scored 10+ runs twice.
More importantly, their offense has perked up with Fernando TatÃs Jr. and Jackson Merrill in particular rounding into form. Lately, free MLB picks involving the Padres have been very profitable.
The Mets aren’t playing as well as San Diego but New York may also be building up momentum as New York seeks to get back to .500. They swept a series from the Washington Nationals last week, split a pair with the Philadelphia Phillies in London and then took two of three from the Marlins.
The offense — led by Francisco Lindor — is getting on track enough to overcome a shaky pitching staff. The record is still bad but there is plenty of talent on this MLB team.
Padres vs Mets 
Day/Time:
Records: Padres (37-35)/Mets (30-37)
Location: Citi Field; Queens, New York
Padres’ Rotation Trying to Skate By
Any Padres vs Mets preview should discuss how San Diego’s rotation is kind of a mess right now with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove on the injured list, forcing the Padres to throw rookie Adam Mazur on Saturday in between starts by knuckleballer Matt Waldron and Dylan Cease, both of whom have been really good.
Mazur will be making just his third MLB appearance, the first of which was awesome and the second terrible. San Diego should have the matchup edge on Friday and Saturday with Waldron facing former Padre Sean Manaea and Cease pitching against the up-and-down Tylor Megill.
Waldron throws pitches other than his knuckleball but that’s what allows him to separate himself from the pack. He has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last six starts and continues to be a revelation for a Padres rotation that has been in flux all year.
The Mets have one of the more wildly inconsistent offenses in baseball so they’re kind of tough to figure out on a nightly basis.
Mets Need To Pitch Better
The numbers for the Mets’ pitching staff are rough, especially when looking at the starting rotation. This Padres vs Mets preview has to note New York’s rotation’s sixth-worst ERA and WHIP in the Majors as well as the second-highest BB/9 and third-lowest K/9. San Diego will miss Luis Severino, the Mets’ best starter thus far, this weekend as well.
Manaea has been decent but has had two rough starts in a row and his ERA is up to 4.30. He’s giving up way too much hard contact and has been tagged for at least one home run in each of his last four outings after allowing just one home run in his first eight starts of the season.
That is not a good trend and it’s one that the Padres — with the eighth-most longballs in MLB — can certainly exploit.
One of the only Mets who could have garnered legitimate MLB MVP odds, Lindor, has tried hard to hold things together on the offensive side of things. For most of the year, scoring issues — and Lindor’s struggles — were keeping New York from really breaking through.
Now, that has flipped and Lindor is playing very well while some of the other Mets bats are waking up, namely Starling Marte. New York is far from a pushover even against a good team like San Diego.
Go With San Diego On Friday
Based on the NY Mets player stats, it makes sense why you would bet on San Diego in Friday’s opener, between the Waldron-Manaea matchup and the Padres’ lineup which is first in the bigs in average and fifth in on-base percentage.
- The Padres are a good take straight-up at -112 on the moneyline. If you’re feeling really greedy, you could go with San Diego to cover 1.5 runs on the runline at +140.
Waldron has been so, so good for San Diego that’s it not hard to imagine him with a nice little six-inning, two-run outing against the inconsistent Mets.
- Consider going with the over eight runs (-115) too.
The Mets’ bullpen is really bad and New York does a lot of its scoring late in baseball games, so it seems as if eight might be a tad too low.
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