Scuffling Padres Visit Cleveland to Open Second Half

The first-place Cleveland Guardians open the second half of the season with a three-game set against the San Diego Padres at Progressive Field. It begins Friday with Matt Waldron facing Tanner Bibee. Cleveland is +1.5 (+160) on the run line and -135 on the moneyline for the series opener, with San Diego +1.5 (-192) and +114. Meanwhile, the projected total is 7.5 with a slight edge to the Over at -115.

What can bettors expect? To help you make your Padres vs Guardians MLB predictions, we previewed this weekend’s matchup

Padres vs Guardians Betting Trends

The San Diego Padres have covered 60.4% of their road games but are still just 49-50 against the run line. They’ve been far more profitable for Over/Under bettors, going 53-45-1.

The Cleveland Guardians, meanwhile, are 49-46 against the run line. That includes 21-20 at home. As for the Over/Under, Cleveland is 46-42-7.

It’s important to remember these betting trends when making your Padres vs Guardians MLB predictions.

Padres Limp into Break

The All-Star break came at the right time for the Padres, losers of six of their last seven. The Padres went just 2-6 on their homestand against Arizona, Seattle, and Atlanta. They’re now in danger of falling to .500 for the first time since June 23.

San Diego remains in the thick of the National League playoff race, though it sits 1.0 game behind the Mets for the third and final wild card spot. The Padres are one of five clubs with between 46 and 48 losses.

The Padres are +145 to make the playoffs, meaning there’s some skepticism about their chances.

It doesn’t help that they’ve been without star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis, who has 14 homers and a .821 OPS, hasn’t played since June 21 because of a stress reaction in his quad. He recently underwent an MRI that showed healing, which should allow the two-time All-Star to incrementally increase baseball activities. Still, he’s at least a couple more weeks away.

Ticketed for 83.5 wins, the Padres must pick up the pace in the second half to beat projections.

Cleveland Rocks

All is well with the Guardians, who lead the American League Central by 4.5 games and sit percentage points ahead of Baltimore for the league’s best record. Its 58 wins are the second-most in baseball behind Philadelphia (62-34).

Despite that, Cleveland went 2-5 against Detroit and Tampa Bay on its final trip before the All-Star break.

With +1300 baseball World Series odds, Cleveland’s separated itself as one of the six biggest favorites to win it all. The Guardians are also +500 to win the AL, with only the Yankees (+265) and Orioles (+370) holding shorter odds.

Outfielder Steven Kwan (.352) leads the majors in batting, and third baseman Jose Ramirez (77 RBI) and first baseman Josh Naylor (70 RBI) are two of the top-run producers. All three made the AL All-Star team along with designated hitter David Fry and closer Emmanuel Clase. Their plus-85 run differential shows they are here to stay as contenders.

Even with a subpar second half, they will blow past projections of 79.5 wins.

Series Probables

Game 1

Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET

Matt Waldron vs Tanner Bibee

The knuckleballing Waldron has become a fixture in San Diego’s rotation, registering a 3.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 19 starts. He’s pitched at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts and is third in San Diego with 94 strikeouts. MLB player props project him for 3.5 punchouts at -135 odds. Bettors can get the Under at +105.

Cleveland counters with Bibee, who has followed up an impressive rookie season by going 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA. Bibee’s been hit hard in two starts this month against San Francisco and Detroit (6.17 ERA), but his body of work speaks for itself.

Be sure to keep that in mind when making your Padres vs Guardians MLB predictions.

Game 2

Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET

Dylan Cease vs Gavin Williams

The Guardians face their old division foe in Cease, who is 8-8 with a 3.99 ERA in his first year as a Padre. His 149 strikeouts are second to only Chicago’s Garrett Crochet (150).

Cease was brilliant in his last start, July 13 against Atlanta, throwing six shutout innings while striking out 11 in a 4-0 win. He allowed only one hit.

Williams, meanwhile, is making just his fourth start after beginning the season on the injured list with an elbow issue. He’s given up seven runs (six earned) over 14.1 innings.

Game 3

Sunday, 1:40 p.m. ET

Michael King vs Ben Lively

King has a 3.41 and ranks eighth in baseball with 129 strikeouts. He’s given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last nine outings dating to May 27.

Lively, meanwhile, has eight wins and 3.58 ERA. For what it’s worth, July has been his worst month (5.94 ERA).

For MLB picks today, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

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