Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Series Preview and Odds
Lone Star State Rivalry Matchup Is A Key One
As they both try to break out of early (and mid) season funks, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros face off this weekend at a very interesting time.
Texas looked dead in the water — and like a rare post-World Series trade deadline seller — before a recent five-game winning streak while Houston keeps inching closer and closer to both a Wild Card spot and the Seattle Mariners at the top of the AL West.
- If you’re making Rangers vs Astros predictions for Friday’s opener, consider that Houston is a -148 moneyline favorite and +140 runline favorite at -1.5 runs. The total is eight runs.
Texas swept a series from the Tampa Bay Rays before taking two of three against the Los Angeles Angels to close within five games of Houston.
The Rangers haven’t been able to get into a rhythm all year — injuries to key pitchers and position players haven’t helped — but they are starting to click in the rotation and at the plate. The Texas Rangers scores lately have featured much more scoring and lower run totals for the opposition.
The Astros seemed too good to remain so far below .500 and, for them, talent is finally starting to win out. Houston has been scoring with ease even as Kyle Tucker remains on the MLB injured list with the veteran trio of José Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez leading the way.
On the mound, Framber Valdez is back to his dominant self, Ronel Blanco continues to shine and Hunter Brown has — for the most part — been great since an ugly start to the baseball season.
Rangers vs Astros 
Day/Time:
Location: Minute Maid Park; Houston, Texas
Pitching Matchups Are Awesome
While Valdez won’t pitch this series for the Astros, Brown (on Friday) and Blanco (on Sunday) will Spencer Arrighetti — a rookie who has struggled overall but has pitched well in two of his last three starts — goes on Saturday.
Texas has Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi and Jon Gray lined up so, on paper, the Rangers vs Astros predictions may side with Texas even if Friday’s MLB matchup looks to be better for Houston.
Brown’s ugly start against the Minnesota Twins on Saturday ended a five-start stretch in which he gave up a total of one run over 31 innings.
He is figuring things out after posting an ERA approaching 10.00 in March and April. Houston has needed Brown to step up with essentially an entire starting rotation on the IL — including Brown’s idol growing up as a Tigers fan in Michigan, Justin Verlander — and he has risen to the occasion.
Heaney has pitched well on the whole but is susceptible to the longball and the Astros have hit the ninth-most home runs in baseball to go with the best batting average, fifth-best on-base percentage and sixth-best OPS.
The lineup without Tucker is scary enough so if you want to take one of the best MLB bets today, it might be the move to side with the Astros. Plus, Texas’ bullpen has been a nightmare all year so opponents can come back from any deficit against the Rangers.
Rangers’ Lineup Is Coming Around
Rangers vs Astros predictions may come down to whichever lineup you trust more considering that the pitching matchup for Friday’s game is relatively close. On the season, the Astros have been a much more proficient offensive baseball team than the Rangers but, as of late, Texas’ bats have picked it up a little.
Marcus Semien is still having a down year — yet he somehow made the AL All-Star team — and the injuries to Evan Carter and Josh Jung haven’t helped but Corey Seager’s steady production, Wyatt Langford’s breakout and Josh Smith’s emergence have all contributed to Texas playing a bit better.
The wild card is Adolis García who will be in this week’s Home Run Derby, held in Arlington at the Rangers’ Globe Life Field. He has 17 home runs and has cooled off after a hot start. He seems to be too good a player to have a sub-100 OPS+. His problem is that he strikes out a ton.
As we saw in last year’s postseason, when he gets going, the Rangers turn into a really dangerous team. It’ll be tough for him to round back into form against Brown and Blanco but he’s still someone to watch this series.
Side With Brown And The Astros
Houston to cover 1.5 runs on the runline at +145 is your free MLB pick of the day. With how good Brown has been, how bad the Rangers’ bullpen continues to be and the depth of the Astros’ lineup, it’s a good opportunity to get big plus-money value.
Also, Houston has been awesome at home (27-19) while Texas has struggled on the road (20-28). It just feels like there are a lot of factors working in the Astros’ favor in this one.
Consider going with the over eight runs (-110) as well because that total is a bit low.
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