The Astros Have a Major Opportunity This Week
Astros vs Mariners Series Preview: Seattle Will Still Hold Its Own
The Houston Astros will begin a four-game road series against the Seattle Mariners today. Houston is currently 24-29 on the season and 3.5 games back of Seattle for first place in the AL West.
Therefore, this series is essential for the division. The Mariners have dropped six of their last ten games, while the Astros have won six of their last ten. With a series win on the road, the Mariners can make up even more ground.
The Astros are slight favorites tonight, with Framber Valdez on the mound. The Astros are sitting at -125, with the total at 7.5. However, the under is juiced to -118.
Check out our full Astros vs Mariners series preview for the four-game rivalry series.
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners 
Day/Time:
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Streaming: ROOTNW, Space City Home Network, MLBN
Kyle Tucker’s Hot May
Kyle Tucker has smashed 18 home runs this season. However, 11 of those home runs have come in the 23 games in May.
His OPS in May is currently at 1.127. The Astros ranking heavily in home runs, with Kyle Tucker leasing the MLB in home runs this season.
Mariners Lost Sammy Peralta
Seattle lost Sammy Peralta to the Chicago White Sox off waivers. Peralta had been with the White Sox system since 2019 and even made the big league team last year. In 16 appearances with Chicago last season, the lefty Peralta had a 4.05 ERA and struck out 20% of batters.
However, in 69 innings in triple-A last season, he had an ERA of 5.09. Either way, Peralta is back where he’s comfortable.
This move won’t have much of an effect on the Mariners standings.
Astros vs Mariners Series Preview & Odds For Game 1:
RL: Astros -1.5 (+135) ML: Astros -125, O/U 7.5 -102/-118
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Monday, 9:40 pm ET
Framber Valdez vs. Bryce Miller
The Astros will give Framber Valdez the ball for the first game of this series. He’s a lefty who has held teams to 67.2% of ground balls and just 10.7% of fly balls. In addition, Valdez has allowed just a .143 ISO and has walked only 7% of batters despite low strikeout numbers.
Valdez will face a projected Mariners lineup that has hit just a .128 ISO and wOBA of .295 with 27.3% of strikeouts against lefties. Valdez is in line for a huge performance.
Bryce Miller will get the call for Seattle. Miller has struck out more batters and has kept walks to 7%. Meanwhile, he’s given up a .237 ISO to lefties and has allowed 42.7% of fly balls with only 28.1% of ground balls to lefties.
Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are two bats to watch out for against Miller. Those two have enough potential to ride with the Astros at -125 in Game 1 of this series.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Tuesday, 9:40 pm ET
Christian Javier vs. Luis Castillo
The Astros will likely give Christian Javier another start in Game 2 of this series. Javier is a righty who has really struggled with pitching against lefties. Ultimately, he’s allowed more walks than strikeouts to lefties and has also given up a .242 ISO and wOBA of .411 with 34% of fly balls and just 26.4% of ground balls.
While his numbers are better against righties, it’s only a matter of time until he struggles against righties, with 41.2% of fly balls allowed and just 25.5% of ground balls induced.
The Mariners also have way better numbers against righties, with lefties like Luke Raley, JP Crawford, and Cal Raleigh in the mix.
Luis Castillo will be penciled into his next start for Game 2. Castillo has limited teams to a .257 wOBA. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the MLB analytically, despite his 4-6 record. Castillo has been very consistent analytically, while Javier hasn’t been.
We’d back Seattle in Game 2 of the series.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Wednesday, 9:40 pm ET
Hunter Brown vs. George Kirby
While it’s not confirmed, Hunter Brown will likely make his next start in Game 3. Brown has allowed a .215 ISO and wOBA of .393, thanks to just 21.8% of strikeouts and 11.9% of walks. However, he’s still getting a high rate of ground balls and limiting fly balls.
His analytics are still better than what he’s produced. We’d imagine he’ll improve over time, especially against a Mariners lineup that tends to strike out a lot against righties.
Meanwhile, George Kirby will slot in for a start in Game 3 with the Mariners. Kirby rarely walks batters, but he’s also allowed a .232 ISO to lefties this season. Kirby should fare well against most of the lineup. However, like the other righties for Seattle, Tucker and Alvarez can potentially hit for some power against Kirby.
With those two, the Astros probably still wouldn’t have enough to get the total over. Therefore, we’d take the Under in Game 3 in your MLBÂ picks and parlays.
âš¾ Game 4 âš¾
Thursday, 4:10 pm ET
Justin Verlander vs. Logan Gilbert
Justin Verlander is aging. He’s only induced 25.9% of ground balls and added just 20.7% of strikeouts. He doesn’t have the worst stats, but he’s not feared like he used to be.
He’ll take on Logan Gilbert, who is much more feared with the Mariners. Gilbert has held teams to a .129 ISO and wOBA of .257, with 44.3% ground balls and 23.2% fly balls. Gilbert has even minimized walks to 6.7% this season.
That said, we’d back the Mariners in the final game of the four-game Astros vs Mariners series preview.
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