Twins vs Rangers MLB Picks: Minnesota Favored in Opener
Texas Falls Out of Playoff Contention

The Minnesota Twins (67-53) visit the Texas Rangers (56-65) for a four-game series beginning Thursday. The Twins are clinging to a wild card spot right now, while the Rangers have all but played themselves out of postseason contention. Minnesota’s advantage in the wild card race is slim, so the Twins can’t afford to let up.
The Twins vs Rangers MLB picks show Bailey Ober and Cody Bradford are the starters for Thursday. The Twins are -120 and the total is 8.5-over (-115).
Minnesota’s offense is getting the job done. The Twins are scoring 4.93 runs per game, which is a half-run higher than the MLB average. Minnesota is No. 9 in team batting average and No. 6 in home runs. The Twins score a little less on the road at 4.67 runs per game. That’s one reason why the Twins are 36-24 at home and 31-29 on the road this season.
The Twins are a little worse than average pitching, ranking No. 18 in team ERA. The relief pitchers are No. 13 in bullpen ERA and the Twins have converted 33 of 47 save opportunities, so they’re making the most of their chances.
The Twins are a solid 24-12 as an away favorite this season, which fits with its 28-35 record against teams above .500 and 39-18 mark against teams under .500. Minnesota needs to do a little better against the good teams to boost its MLB playoff chances.
Texas Pitching Going Downhill
The Rangers had several injuries to their pitching staff and that’s taken a toll on the team’s numbers. Texas is No. 24 in team ERA and No. 27 in bullpen ERA. The Rangers do have 24 saves in 38 attempts, so they’re not bad there. Texas simply doesn’t have enough arms to get the team through the season.
The Rangers wouldn’t need quite so much out of the pitching staff if the offense was carrying its weight. Texas is averaging just 4.24 runs per game. The Rangers are No. 20 in team batting average and No. 18 in home runs, so there’s room for improvement all the way around.
Texas hasn’t been bad at home, going 31-27, although that’s due to the pitchers throwing better. The Rangers average 4.17 runs at home. Surprisingly, the Rangers haven’t been a home underdog this season, going 3-6. Texas will be the underdog in at least two of the four games this series.
Thursday’s Game
Ober is quietly having an impressive season for the Twins. He’s 12-5 with a 3.52 ERA and the Twins are 13-9 when he starts. Minnesota is 6-6 when he starts on the road and 4-3 when he’s an away favorite.
Bradford is 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA, although he’s struggled a little bit since returning to MLB. His last outing was solid, but the two before that left a bit to be desired. Still, the Rangers have won all five games he’s started, but Texas is scoring 8.6 runs per game when he starts. That’s unlikely to continue.
Bradford’s numbers look solid, which is help keeping the MLB odds today down a little bit on this game. The Twins are a better team all the way around and probably the right side here.
Friday’s Game
The Twins vs Rangers MLB picks shows Simeon Woods Richardson and Andrew Heaney as Friday’s starters. Richardson is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA. He doesn’t have many decisions for somebody with 20 starts, but the Twins are 13-7 when he takes the mound. Minnesota is 6-4 when Richardson starts on the road.
Heaney has pitched better than his 4-12 record indicates. He has a 4.05 ERA and the Rangers are 7-16 when he starts. Texas is 6-3 with Heaney on the mound when they score at least four runs, so the offense hasn’t always been there.
The game should be pretty close to even, although the Twins should be slight favorites based on the pitching matchup. Minnesota looks to be the right side, since the Twins are winning with Richardson on the mound.
Saturday’s Game
The Twins are going to start David Festa, who is 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA. He’s made five starts and one relief appearance this season. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his starts, so the bullpen should see some innings here. Minnesota is 2-3 when Festa starts this season. Festa has 33 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings, so he can bring the heat.
The Twins vs Rangers MLB picks show Nathan Eovaldi was named as Saturday’s starter by Texas manager Bruce Bochy. Eovaldi suffered a low-grade right oblique strain in his last start, but threw a bullpen session Wednesday without any problems. The Rangers are 12-9 when Eovaldi takes the mound, so he’s been one of the team’s best pitchers.
The Rangers appear to have a slight pitching advantage in this one, but it’s tough to go against Festa here. When he’s on, he can be tough and has settled down after beginning with a couple of ugly starts. The under could be the way to go here.
Sunday’s Game
Pablo Lopez will get the start for Minnesota and he’s 11-8 with a 4.67 ERA. Lopez has 149 strikeouts in 135 innings, but faces a Texas team that can put the ball in play. The Rangers’ are No. 7 in the fewest strikeouts at the plate. Betting Lopez to go under in strikeouts could be one of the best MLB prop bets today.
If Tyler Mahle can go, he’ll get the start here. Texas is waiting to officially name its pitcher to see how Mahle is feeling after his seven-strikeout effort against Boston. With the team essentially out of the playoff chase, it makes sense to take it easy with Mahle.
The over looks to be the best play here. Lopez will have one of his biggest strengths – the strikeout – negated by the Rangers’ ability to hit the ball. Lopez fanned six when he pitched against Texas earlier this year, but paid for it by surrendering a pair of home runs.
For MLB scores today, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
Can’t get enough? Here’s more!
- MLB: August 14th Weekly Home/Road Report
- MLB: August 13th Weekly Favorite / Dog Report
- Oakland Athletics at New York Mets Season Preview and Odds
- Orioles Favored To Continue Winning Way Vs Nationals
- Marlins vs Phillies Preview: Philadelphia Falling
