Washington Nationals at New York Mets Series Preview and Odds
Mets Need To Break Out Of Funk
With their magical month of June in the rearview mirror, the New York Mets are once again looking like a very .500 team as they host the division rival Washington Nationals — going through struggles of their own — for a critical three-game series at Citi Field.
These MLB teams split a four-game set last week as they try to remain relevant in the jumbled National League Wild Card picture.
- If you’re making Nationals vs Mets MLB picks, the Mets are -130 moneyline favorites and +160 at -1.5 runs on the runline in Tuesday’s opener. The total is eight runs.
New York is coming off another four-game road series split with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who crushed the Mets 8-2 on Monday afternoon. The Mets’ bullpen was beat up again, continuing a historic stretch of bad play in which New York’s relievers have been easily the worst in baseball.
Since June 23rd, they have an ERA over 8.00 and gave up six more runs yesterday. That’s the main thing holding back the Mets from being one of the best MLB bets today.
The Nationals’ bullpen has been equally hideous as of late and the lineup hasn’t been a whole lot better. Washington scored just three runs in the final two games of a four-game series loss to the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend and was shut out on Monday.
The Nationals are third in the Majors in stolen bases but are decidedly in the middle of the pack in pretty much every other offensive category.
Nationals vs Mets 
Day/Time:
Location: Citi Field; Queens, New York
Streaming: Nationals (42-49)/Mets (44-45)
Long Ball Is Key For Mets
The Mets are right around 10th across the board offensively, a decent figure for a team that couldn’t seem to get into any sort of groove until June 1st rolled around.
Specifically, the biggest thing going in favor of the Mets for Nationals vs Mets MLB picks is New York’s power, as they’re fourth in home runs, led by Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo.
As the Nationals saw firsthand in last week’s series, this is a very dangerous lineup when it’s on because there are plenty of power threats.
However, the flip side of the Mets’ home run prowess is that they are a little too reliant on long balls. They’ve been held to two runs or fewer in three of their last five MLB games — all three were losses — with home runs accounting for four of the five runs they scored in those contests.
Right now, with Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez really scuffling, it has been much more difficult to manufacture runs as a slower veteran team.
Plus, Tuesday’s Washington starter, Jake Irvin, is coming off a masterful start against this Mets team last Thursday in which he tossed eight scoreless innings and allowed only one hit.
While MLB expert picks may not expect Irvin to be able to replicate that kind of effort against a lineup that just saw him, the combination of Irvin’s recent dominance — only two runs allowed in his last three starts — and his home run prevention (just 0.8 per nine innings) could bode well for the Nationals.
Nationals Can Attack New York’s Bullpen
On the other side of Irvin’s incredible start last week was the same pitcher he’s scheduled to face today: José Quintana. The veteran lefty shut out the Nationals for seven innings in that game only to see reliever Adrian Houser give up the lead soon after entering in relief of Quintana.
Nationals vs Mets MLB picks need to consider how awful the Mets’ relief core has been even with Edwin DÃaz back from a sticky stuff suspension.
So, while the Nationals may have their hands full with the Mets’ starters — Quintana, Luis Severino and David Peterson — who have mostly been giving New York decent innings, Washington can beat up on the bullpen as the Nationals did in the recent series.
The Mets only have a few reliable bullpen arms and even those guys have been shaky during this ugly stretch.
The Major League Baseball lines properly reflect how the Mets may be the better overall team but that the Nationals aren’t very far behind, particularly on the pitching side of things.
This is the kind of series that’s hard to predict because the two teams aren’t all that dissimilar as evidenced by their evenly matched four-game set and the few games separating them in the MLB standings.
Go With Mets Straight-Up
As noted above, this is a tough series to predict and Tuesday’s game could go both ways. However, it might be smarter to take the Mets to win as -130 moneyline favorites.
It’ll be really hard for Irvin to match what he did last week with all of New York’s power. Also, New York has been playing better at home and will be happy to be back in the Big Apply after a long trip.
The over eight runs (-125) isn’t great value but it’s the right bet here because both teams’ bullpens are bad and because it’s difficult for starters to face the same team after only a few days in between starts. There could be a lot of offense in this one.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
