Weekly MLB Home / Road Midseason Report

Bettors Being Smashed With Home Team Bets, Large Moneylines

July 17, 2024 124 3 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

Weekly MLB Home / Road Midseason Report — Megan Briggs/Getty Images/AFP

You Must Dig Deep to Find Winning Home/Road Trends
Which Teams Have Proven Their Worth in 2024?
Most Important to Track Recent Trends

This is the time of year when Major League Baseball bettors can take a step back from just under 3,000 baseball games and assess what went right or what went terribly wrong.

This is also the time when we either strengthen your bankroll for the rest of the season or attempt to build one for the upcoming football season that’s about two weeks away from the Hall of Fame Game kick-off.

Yesterday we examined favorites and dogs at the half-way point, today we’ll dive into our MLB midseason home/road report.

You Must Dig Deep to Find Winning Home/Road Trends

We know from previous reports that we can’t simply back road or home teams and call it a day.

You would lose less money betting road teams (-3186 units) than home teams (-3422) but as you can see neither is a blanket bet option, so let’s go further into the numbers. Home underdogs bring a smaller price tag of 9.37 units lost (224-287 record) compared to road dogs who are -21.94 units (389-543).

Betting home favorites (-2484) or road dogs (9.91) hasn’t been profitable, but betting home favorites have given bettors a much higher win percentage of 58.3%.

This makes it very important to find a betting range with the home favs that won’t steal your money and that range seems to be between -118 and -129 where bettors have enjoyed an 89-62 record (.589) +10.29 units.

We must warn you to tread lightly with this trend moving forward because these numbers have not seen an overall season profit since 2020. As the old saying goes, past performance does not guarantee future results.

If you have the bankroll to handle the losses, over the last four seasons MLB teams that are -199 to -190 are 162-77 (.678) good for 6.71 units and 22-9 (.710) +2.39 in 2024.

This is the best time of year for MLB scoreboard watching but we can smash a ton of cash in our bankroll, but we must be cerebral with our wager.

Les Rockies ont utilisé un lanceur partant comme coureur suppléant. Kyle Freeland a tenté de marquer sur un mauvais lancer. Glissade risquée au marbre. Le lanceur-coureur s’est blessé 🙄pic.twitter.com/jD9XUhFH2y
— Alexandre Pratt (@alexandrepratt) April 16, 2024

Which Teams Have Proven Their Worth in 2024?

We know that winning in the second half of the season will be more than looking at the MLB standings but let’s look at home / road splits for the first half of the season break down.

The best home teams against the Moneyline to date are the Cleveland Guardians (30-11, +11.45 units) followed by the Kansas City Royals (31-18, +8.92) and the Philadelphia Phillies (37-15, +6.83).

The top road teams are led by the Boston Red Sox (29-17, +12.15) with the New York Yankees (33-21, +9.09) and Baltimore Orioles (28-16, +8.06) second and third respectively.

The Guardians (28-9, +11.18 units) are the best team to jump on as a home favorite, with Kansas City next at 18-4 (+8.63) and then the Philadelphia Phillies 36-13 (+7.60).

Road favorites are usually the best teams to bet on because we’re getting a diluted number along with the better of the MLB match-up. Minnesota is 22-9 (+7.82 units) as a road favorite, with the Boston Red 13-3 (+6.45) and Cincinnati Reds 7-1 (+4.35).

Most Important to Track Recent Trends

We’re all looking forward to cashing daily MLB free picks but there is one trend that is worth looking at for the rest of the season. The baseball season is so long that we must break it down for numbers to be relevant.

Usually, bettors can go back a month to get long-term numbers that we can still use today, especially when it comes to pitching.

These are the pitchers who were the most effective over the last month when using different filters.

The best home pitchers were Luis Medina (2-0, +2.95) of the Oakland Athletics, Lance Lynn (3-0, +2.86) from the St. Louis Cardinals, and Yonny Chirinos (2-0, +2.68) from the Miami Marlins.

Now let’s jump over to the best pitchers on the road. This should give bettors a tremendous amount of value heading into the second half.

The Colorado Rockies’ Kyle Freeland is 2-0 with 3.67 units won, followed by J.P. Sears of the Oakland Athletics (2-0, +3.31) and Trevor Rogers (2-1, 3.03 units).

That does it for our July 17th weekly home/road report, all the best with your wagers in the second half of the season.

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