Will Pete Alonso Become This Year’s RBI Leader?

The RBI Leader Future Betting Odds Have Lots Of Value Across The Board

Last year’s RBI Leader race wasn’t even close.

Matt Olson of the Braves added 139 RBIs after hitting 54 home runs last season. He beat Pete Alonso, who was second on the list, with only 118.

The MLB’s new rule changes have seemingly affected pitchers. They’re forced to throw the ball faster due to a pitch clock and sometimes can’t strategize the way they want with runners on base.

Last year, Olson took advantage. Not only did he take advantage of the rule changes, but he also took advantage of last year’s MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr., being on base at a near 42% clip.

Despite Olson’s success last season, he’s not even in the top five for this year’s MLB RBI leader future betting odds.

Is that a mistake? Is there value in Olson this year? Let’s chat about it below.

RBI Leader Future Betting Odds

RBI leader future betting odds CandidatesOdds
Yordan Alvarez+650
Juan Soto+750
Aaron Judge+800
Pete Alonso+850
Matt Olson+900

RBI Leader Future Betting Odds Preview

Astros logo Yordan Alvarez (+650)

Yordan Alvarez slugged 31 home runs and 97 RBIs in just 114 games played last season.

He had been healthy from 2021-2022 but had a minor injury that kept him out for a solid portion of games last season. Still, with only 410 at-bats, he smacked 97 RBIs and averaged .293 with an OBP of .407.

This year, Fangraphs’ ZIPS projections expect Alvarez to make 567 plate appearances and play in 134 games. The expectation is that he will hit 109 RBIs. However, according to the projections, that would only be good for fifth in the MLB in the RBI category.

Alvarez is still just 26 years old. He doesn’t have a major track record. But he’s been one of the best hitters since he came into the league in 2019. Alvarez will still have Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker in the lineup, which should help him drive some runs in.

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Yankees logo Juan Soto (+750)

Juan Soto is a left-handed hitter who will play half of his games at Yankee Stadium. That’s elite stuff and a fantastic fit for a guy like Soto.

Soto hit .275 last season with the Padres, knocking 35 home runs and 109 RBIs for the previous year’s team that didn’t even make the playoffs.

The expectation is that Soto will bat in front of Aaron Judge. He’ll get plenty of stuff to hit, with pitchers not wanting to have to throw to Judge.

There will be more pressure on Soto this year when he’s in pinstripes. But after playing 162 games last year, it’s clear that Soto wants to play every day when given the opportunity. We’ll see how he responds to the media and fanbase when he gets into his first slump. Some players aren’t made for New York. However, Soto probably is and will be fine.

Yankees logo Aaron Judge (+800)

For one, Aaron Judge is already questionable for Opening Day with an abdominal injury. Secondly, Judge will bat in the back of Juan Soto, who hit 35 home runs.

With Soto’s power ability, that could mean more solo home runs for Aaron Judge. Solo home runs are great, but that’s just one RBI.

Before last season, Judge was consistently healthy. But, he was sidelined with a foot injury for a third of the season. Still, after playing 106 games, Judge added 75 RBIs and 37 home runs.

If he had an entire season, he could’ve been in a tight race with Matt Olson for the home run lead last season.

But with an injury already on the table for Judge in Spring Training, we wouldn’t suggest buying in on Judge right now.

Mets logo Pete Alonso (+850)

Pete Alonso was second in the MLB with 118 RBIs last year. He did that despite only hitting .217 last year.

Imagine how good Alonso would do if he bumped up his average.

Alonso played in at least 152 games in three straight seasons. In 2022, he hit .271, and in 2021, he hit .262. But last year, his .217 average was a glaring weakness.

Alonso has already had three seasons with 118+ RBIs and has added at least 94 RBIs in four of five seasons. In the one season where he didn’t, it was 2020 and a shortened season due to COVID.

Respectfully, the Mets’ offense didn’t really improve from last year’s unit. Like Alonso, the guys on the roster need to improve their numbers from last year.

Since last year, we’ve never seen Alonso hit below .220 in an MLB season. It’s likely he made some adjustments and will do better in 2024. If he does, his RBIs could exceed 130 in 2024.

At +800, Alonso is a sleeper.

Braves logo Matt Olson (+900)

But so is Matt Olson.

We wouldn’t even call him a sleeper. He dominated this market last season and figures to dominate again this year.

Olson has played in 162 games two straight seasons for the Braves. He’s had over 600 at-bats in both seasons and has combined for 242 RBIs.

His consistency is admirable, but the fact that Ronald Acuna Jr. bats in front of him is even more commendable.

Acuna Jr. was second in the MLB in average and led the league in stolen bases. All Acuna Jr. has to do is get on base, steal second, and then score when Matt Olson comes up. It’s really that simple.

We don’t think Olson will slip at all this year. He’ll remain consistent in this market and is a very valuable player at +900.

The Verdict

The two best bets from the top five players include Pete Alonso and Matt Olson.

However, you’re likely wondering where Shohei Ohtani is.

Ohtani is at +1400 and 8th on the betting list. Ultimately, Fangraphs projects Ohtani to lead the league in RBIs this season with 122. That’s respectable, especially knowing that Ohtani will focus more on hitting this year because he’s taking a year off from pitching.

However, Freddie Freeman is at +2500. He’ll bat behind Mookie Betts and Ohtani, who both have value with these MLB betting odds. The Dodgers will likely be first in the MLB standings and already have the top MLB World Series odds.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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