Yankees vs Phillies Preview: Teams Not Playing Their Best

New York Visits Philadelphia With Both Teams Slumping

July 29, 2024 106 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies PR — JIM MCISAAC / GETTY IMAGES

Yankees vs Phillies
Monday's Game
Tuesday's Game
Wednesday's Game

Phillies at -150

The New York Yankees (62-45) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (65-40) for a three-game series beginning Monday. July hasn’t been a good month for either team, with New York going 8-13 and the Phillies are 10-10. It hasn’t hurt either team much, as the Yankees are still 4.0 games ahead in the wild card race.

Baltimore hasn’t played well lately themselves, so the Yanks are right there for the division title. Philadelphia’s lead in the NL East is still 8.5 games over Atlanta. The Yankees vs Phillies preview shows Luis Gil and Zack Wheeler the starting pitchers. The Phillies are -150 and the total is 9.

The Yankees are No. 11 in team batting average but are No. 2 in home runs, so offense hasn’t been a problem. New York is scoring 5.0 runs per game, which is .5 more than the league average of 4.5 runs. About the only thing New York doesn’t do offensively is steal bases and that hasn’t hurt them yet.

The Yankees’ pitching staff has been solid and is No. 5 in MLB with an ERA of 3.69. New York has converted 27 of 40 save opportunities and the bullpen ranks No. 9 with an ERA of 3.67. The starting pitchers and the relievers have been pretty consistent.

The Phillies are scoring 4.9 runs per game, although they average 5.3 runs at home. Philadelphia’s 38-18 home record is one of the best in MLB standings and has helped the team reach No. 3 in MLB attendance 2024. Only the Dodgers and Yankees draw more fans. The Phillies are No. 4 in team batting average and No. 6 in home runs.

Philadelphia is No. 2 in team ERA, although the bullpen has let a few games get away. The Phillies are No. 15 in bullpen ERA and have converted 27 saves in 43 attempts. Relief pitching has been the weakest link for the Phillies this 2024 MLB season.

Yankees vs Phillies

📊Records: New York Yankees (62-45) /Philadelphia Phillies (65-40)
⏰Day/Time: Monday, July 29, 2024 at 6:40 PM ET
📍Location: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Monday’s Game

Gil has pitched pretty well for the Yankees this season. He’s 10-5 with a 3.10 ERA and New York is 13-7 when he starts. The Yankees have gone 6-3 when he starts on the road, so he’s getting the job done regardless of location. New York is 3-1 when he starts as an underdog, so he checks a few boxes tonight.

Wheeler is 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA for Philadelphia. The Phillies are 12-8 when he starts, so they’re just 2-4 when Wheeler doesn’t earn a decision. Philadelphia is 7-4 when Wheeler starts at home. Wheeler has consistently been a big favorite this season and this game is no exception. The MLB season 2024 odds when Wheeler starts average a little more than Phillies -190.

Gil and the Yankees at +130 are simply too much to pass up in this spot. Wheeler and the Phillies have been good at home, but the Yankees have shown they can with Gil on the road.

Tuesday’s Game

The Yankees vs Phillies preview shows Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola as the starters for Tuesday. Nola is going to be a big favorite and it’s certainly justified. Cole has not pitched that well, although he has had a few decent starts mixed in with some poor ones.

He’s 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 39 hits in 35 innings. Cole has also allowed nine home runs after allowing 20 in 209 innings a year ago. The bright side is the Yankees are 4-3 when he starts.

Nola has been strong this season for the Phillies and is 11-4 with a 3.44 ERA. Philadelphia is 15-6 when Nola starts this season and 8-3 when he starts at home. The Phillies are 14-5 when Nola is the favorite.

Cole’s inconsistency makes this one a tough game from an MLB betting standpoint. The Yankees are 5-2 in totals when Cole starts, although Philadelphia is 3-7-1 in totals with Nola at home. If you have to play it, the over might be the way to go.

Wednesday’s Game

The Yankees vs Phillies preview shows Nestor Cortes and Cristopher Sanchez as the starters for the series finale. Coming away with at least one win is probably a little more important for the Yankees in relation to the MLB playoff bracket. Cortes is 4-9 with a 4.13 ERA, so he hasn’t pitched as bad as his record indicates. The Yankees are just 7-15 when he starts. While Cortes hasn’t pitched great, the Yankees are only scoring 3.5 runs per game when he starts.

Sanchez is 7-6 with a 3.05 ERA. The Phillies are 10-10 when he starts, although his numbers suggest they should be doing better. Philadelphia is 8-3 with Sanchez at home, so they’re winning the home games.

New York is just 2-9 when Cortes starts on the road and is allowing 6.0 runs per game. That isn’t going to cut it no matter how good the offense is. The Phillies have to be the play in this one.