2024 Great American Getaway 400: Hamlin Leads Pocono
Can Hamlin Rebound at One of His Best Tracks?
A bold strategy call earned Alex Bowman his first win in nearly two and a half years in Chicago. The Hendrick Motorsports driver made it through in mixed wet-dry conditions and made the race-winning pace on Joey Hand on Lap 51. This week, the grid returns to more familiar territory in Pocono for the 2024 Great American Getaway 400.
Here’s how the odds look this week:
Great American Getaway 400: Favorites
- Denny Hamlin (+350)
It’s been a poor run lately for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. He finished outside of the top 10 in each of the last five races after reaching that mark eight times in the first 15 events. He’s still tied for the series lead in wins with three but the slump needs to end for the sake of his confidence.
Luckily, Pocono is one of his better tracks on the NASCAR schedule 2024. His seven victories there are by far the most on the active grid. He won this race last year and started on pole position in 2022. Wins in 2020 and 2019 prove that wasn’t a one-off and his track record gives confidence that he can turn things around this weekend.
- Kyle Larson (+500)
Larson started on pole position in Chicago but hydroplaned into the wall on Lap 34 and couldn’t continue. That didn’t hurt him that badly because he still holds an 11-point lead in the championship standings. Thanks to his stretch of strong NASCAR race results, Larson isn’t in danger of falling down the standings anytime soon.
He has a good track record in Pocono but Larson hasn’t won in 16 career races at the track. Last year, he went from third on the grid to 20th by the checkered flag but that’s a departure from his typical form. He finished in the top 10 in each of the prior four races. It’d be a bit of a surprise for him to win here but he’ll be in for a good result.
- Christopher Bell (+600)
Bell’s bad result in Nashville preceded another disappointing result in Chicago. He led 14 laps and charged back to the front before a five-car accident caught him. That dropped home to 37th in the classification in what’s been a sharp drop in results after his dominant weekend in New Hampshire.
Things may not get much better this weekend. His NASCAR odds are surprisingly short given his recent form and track record in Pocono. Six career races have yielded just three top-10 finishes. Last year he started fifth and finished sixth. A trip to victory lane would be surprising for Bell this weekend.
- Tyler Reddick (+700)
Another week, another top-five finish for Reddick. The 23XI Racing driver managed third in Nashville before running out of laps to challenge Bowman for victory in Chicago. It continues his run of success with six top-10 finishes in the last seven races. No driver on the Cup Series grid can match that run.
Reddick’s been on a good run in Pocono lately as well. He finished second last year after leading 15 laps and he finished second in 2022 as well. He’s finished higher than he started in each of the last four races there. Between his track record and recent form, he could be in for his second win of the season.
- Martin Truex Jr. (+750)
Like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Hamlin, Truex Jr. is in a tough stretch of the season. Thirty-third in Chicago means Truex Jr. has one top-10 finish in the last eight races. His third in Dover and fourth in Kansas feels like a long time ago.
Truex Jr. has two career wins in Pocono but the most recent one came in 2018. Since that victory, he has had five top-10 finishes in nine races. Last year was one of his better performances with third place and 20 laps led. He needs a result like that to turn things around.
- William Byron (+900)
Byron had a solid run in Chicago after qualifying 27th on the grid. His eighth-place finish was one of the better results of the top drivers in the Cup Series standings and puts him just two points behind Truex Jr. for fifth.
Despite just 10 career Cup Series races in Pocono, Byron has the best average finish among active drivers. Last year he started from pole position and led 60 laps before finishing 14th. He should be in for a better finish this weekend.
2024 Great American Getaway 400:Sleepers
- Brad Keselowski (+1400)
Keselowski’s form dropped slightly after his strong run from May into early June. A win in Darlington, second in Charlotte, and third in Gateway was his best stretch of the season. Since then, he’s finished in the top 10 just once.
That could change this weekend. He’s consistent in Pocono with six top-10 finishes in the last 10 races. Only Hamlin and Kyle Busch have more. A win could be tough but he’ll likely be at least near the front again.
- Ryan Blaney (+1600)
Blaney’s turned things around after a rough stretch to start the season. His win in Iowa came before a rough day in New Hampshire, but he finished in the top 10 in Nashville and Chicago. He has had mixed results in Pocono, with a win in 2017—his first career victory—and only four top-10 finishes in the 11 races since then. This is more of a bet on recent form over track record.
- Kyle Busch (+1800)
Busch broke through in Chicago for his first top-10 finish in two months. He finished ninth from 19th on the grid for one of his better showings this season. This weekend could see more of that again. He’s won three times in the last 10 races at Pocono; only Hamlin can match that clip of victories. His recent track record weighs heavily here and could boost him to victory.
2024 Great American Getaway 400:Predictions
Pocono’s a return to big, flat track ovals with a unique triangle layout and high speed. It should be an exciting race after a rain-shortened event in Chicago.
Of the favorites, we like Reddick (+700) to get the win. He’s on a good run and has come close to winning in Pocono in recent years. Among the sleepers, we like Busch (+1800) the most due to his recent track record there.
Our top five picks are:
- Reddick (+125)
- Hamlin (-170)
- Busch (+300)
- Blaney (+275)
- Byron (+160)
For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
