2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds Favor Repeat Champ

Truex Jr. Has Three Wins in the Last Five Races in Sonoma

Last week’s NASCAR Cup Series action saw Austin Cindric earn his second career victory at World Wide Technology Raceway. It’s his first win since the 2022 Daytona 500 and came at the expense of his Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney, who ran out of fuel while leading.

This week will be a different challenge with the road course of Sonoma Raceway. Despite the format change, the top drivers in the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds look familiar.

Check out the Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds at Point Spreads now!

2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds: Favorites

  • Martin Treux Jr. (+550)

Truex Jr. had a rough time in Gateway. He finished 34th and three laps down, by far his worst result of the season. His second bad finish in the last three races drops him down to fourth in the standings.

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Luckily, he’s coming to a track where he’s had fantastic NASCAR results in recent history. He won this event in 2013, 2018, 2019, and 2023. If there’s a track best suited for Truex Jr. to bounce back, this looks like one of the best.

  • Kyle Larson (+700)

Larson returned from his failed “Double Duty” attempt to take 10th in Gateway. It was a good result given his Lap 140 contact with Kyle Busch that sent both into the outside wall.

He was able to continue while Busch had his first DNF of the year.

Larson has more pole positions at Sonoma than any other active driver. From 2017 through 2022, he started first on the grid but only converted that to a win one time (2021).

His lone road course result in 2024 wasn’t good with 17th in Austin.

  • William Byron (+750)

Byron had a solid result in Gateway – 15th by the finish – to keep in the top five of the standings. He’s struggled to put things together over a full weekend in Sonoma in his career.

In 2018, 2019, and 2021 he qualified in the top 10 but finished in the top 20 just once. In the last two events, he’s qualified 20th or lower and finished 15th or better.

But he did win the first road course race of the year in Austin so that gives confidence for his NASCAR betting.

  • Chase Elliott (+750)

Elliott owns the best average finish among active drivers in Sonoma. He’s one of the better drivers at road courses on the NASCAR schedule. His 13th-place result in Gateway continues his remarkable run of consistency.

Elliott’s come close to victory in Sonoma multiple times: fifth last year, second in 2021, and fourth in 2018. Could this finally be the time he breaks through?

  • Christopher Bell (+800)

Bell had a promising race in Gateway fall apart with engine problems. He won Stage 1 and Stage 2 and led the most laps but needed a push multiple times from teammate Truex Jr. to reach the finish line. He’s now led the most laps and won four stages combined in the last two NASCAR races.

His odds are this good as well thanks to him finishing second to Byron in Austin. He has one top-10 result (2023, ninth) in three career races in Sonoma.

  • Ty Gibbs (+800)

Gibbs earned another solid result in Gateway with 11th by the checkered flag. He’s seventh in the standings after that result despite zero wins in 2024.

His good road course record is encouraging, though, with third in Austin this year and fifth at Watkins Glen in 2023. He’s farther down this list of favorites but he could be a surprise on race day this year.

  • Tyler Reddick (+800)

Reddick is arguably the best road course driver on the Cup Series grid. He finished fifth in Austin this year and is on a solid run of back-to-back fourth-place results.

He’s qualified well in Sonoma throughout his career and has never started outside the top 10. But that hasn’t translated on race day as he’s managed just one finish in the top 20. Betting on him backs his road course prowess over his track record in Sonoma.


  • Chris Buescher (+200)

Buescher remains right on the playoff bubble at 14th in the standings following his 14th-place finish in Gateway. He could be a surprise winner in Sonoma.

He finished eighth in Austin this season and finished in the top four in each of the last two events here. Buescher racked up three wins in quick succession last season. Look for him to be near the front again.

  • Kyle Busch (+2000)

Busch’s DNF in Gateway is a season-low for the two-time NASCAR champion. It continues a tough year with just five top-10 results so far. He could turn things around in Sonoma, though.

He won in 2015 and has finished in the top 10 in six of the last seven races there. Busch needs a good result sooner than later and it could come here.

  • Joey Logano (+2500)

Logano earned his third-best result of the season with fifth place in Gateway. He’s a strong performer in Sonoma with four top-five results in the last 10 races there.

Only Truex Jr. and Busch have more top-five finishes over that span. It’s a long shot but could be worth it at these odds.

2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds: Predictions

Sonoma’s technically challenging road course layout provides a challenge every year for Cup Series drivers. This season should be no different.

Of the favorites, we like Elliott (+750) to finally get his first win in Sonoma. Of the sleepers, we like Busch (+2000) to bounce back from his first DNF.

Our top five picks are:

  • Truex Jr. (-125)
  • Elliott (+110)
  • Gibbs (+120)
  • Reddick (+120)
  • Busch (+310)

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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