Ag-Pro 300 Betting Odds: Can JHN Maintain the Top Spot?
John Hunter Nemechek Heads to Talladega atop Standings
It’s a new week with a new championship leader in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. John Hunter Nemechek won in Martinsville and, with Austin Hill finishing 16th, took the championship lead by 21 points.
It was a dominant win for Nemechek. He led 198 out of 250 laps and held off teammates Cole Custer and Sammy Smith for the win, his second of the 2023 NASCAR season.
This week sees the field head to the second superspeedway of the season: Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama. It’s the longest oval on the calendar and one of the fastest the Xfinity drivers will visit this season. But who’s favored to win? Here’s what you need to know if you’re betting on the Ag-Pro 300 this weekend:
Hill by himself at the top
Austin Hill has never won a race at Talladega, but he’s the runaway favorite at +400. Last season, Hill led more laps than any other driver (67) and was just four laps away from a win when Sam Mayer hit him, and the two crashed into the infield wall. Hill ended up 27th. In the second Talladega race in 2022, Hill took the pole position and again led the most laps (60). But he dropped out of the lead group and finished 14th.
Last week in Martinsville marked just the second time all season Hill finished outside of the top 10. He’ll look to make good on that and last year’s disappointments this Saturday.
Nemechek leads next group
The championship leader Nemechek has the next-best odds at +1000. Nemechek’s never won in Talladega in any series, but he’s consistently finished in the top 10 in both the Xfinity and Cup Series. Out of a combined five races in the two series, Nemechek finished at least eighth four times. He may have a different track record of near-wins like Hill, but he’s shown good speed in Talladega.
Josh Berry sits behind Nemechek at +1200. He finished fifth in the last Xfinity Series race in Talladega, his best career result at the superspeedway. He’s also finished in the top five in the previous two races. Berry’s shown a consistent pace recently, so he has the potential to continue that streak.
Three drivers sit at +1400
Allgaier has never won an Xfinity race at Talladega. In his Xfinity Series career, he’s won just one race at a speedway longer than two miles: 2018 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. That’s out of more than 400 total races and 79 at speedways of that length. He’s sixth in the championship, and a win would be a big surprise.
Custer’s riding two top-five finishes, including third last week in Martinsville, heading into Talladega. Over nine career Xfinity or Cup Series races there, Custer’s managed two top-10 finishes (9th in the 2018 Xfinity Series race, 10th in the 2021 Cup Series race). He’d be another surprise win this weekend.
Smith pipped Custer for second place on the last lap. The rookie has won once in 2023 but has yet to race in Talladega, not even in other series. This’ll be his first, and the good odds reflect his recent form this season.
Long shots worth betting on
If you’re looking for a bigger payout this weekend than the top picks, several good options exist.
Allgaier and Berry’s teammate Brandon Jones is +2000 for victory. He took his best finish of the season last week with fifth place in Martinsville. In 10 career Xfinity races at Talladega, Jones has three top-five finishes, including podiums in 2018 and 2021. It could be a better track record of active Xfinity racers, but given the bigger payout could be worth the risk.
Ryan Sieg (+4000) has never won an Xfinity Series race. But Talladega has been his best track during his decade in the series. He has more top-five finishes in his career (4) there than any other track on the calendar. Overall, he performs well on long superspeedways like here and Daytona. He’s taken a career-best seven top-10 finishes in 19 races there. Like Jones, he’s a risky choice, but there’s reason to think he could pull through.
Predictions for the Ag-Pro 300
It’s hard to argue picking against Hill. He’s come so close to victory multiple times already in his young Xfinity Series career, and he’s having a great 2023 campaign. After Nemechek’s resounding win in Martinsville, he needs this win to put himself back on top in the championship again.
If you’re looking for a better bet payout, look to Berry or Sieg for first-time wins in 2023, thanks to pace this season and speed in Talladega, respectively.
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