Geico 500 Betting Odds: Cup Series Returns to Talladega
Championship contenders, former winners lead closely bunched odds
It’s here: the longest oval on the 2023 NASCAR schedule. The 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway is hosting the Cup Series for the 108th time this weekend. The variable banking — 3 degrees on the backstretch, 16.5 degrees on the tri-oval, and 33 degrees in the turns — makes it challenging for many drivers. There’s always a high likelihood of a massive wreck shaking up the order at any point.
Last time out in Martinsville, Kyle Larson gambled on a late two-tire pit stop to take his second win of 2023. He punched his ticket to the playoffs with his first career win at The Paperclip, thanks to a late pass on defending champion Joey Logano.
Can he make it three wins in four races? Or are there other drivers more favored for a win? Here’s how the odds for the GEICO 500 look:
Former and current Team Penske drivers on top
Talladega’s been a good hunting ground for multiple Cup Series drivers. Three, in particular, stand out in this year’s field: Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Brad Keselowski. The common theme: they’re three of just a handful of drivers who have won multiple times in Talladega. They’re all leading the odds at +1000.
Keselowski stands out among the rest. He’s won at the track six times in his career, including his first career win in 2009. The latest victory came in the 2021 GEICO 500. During his time with Team Penske (2010-2021), he was a regular at the front and notched 11 top-10 finishes in 24 races. He’s done this while never taking pole at Talladega. He has a track record of finding his way up the field wherever he starts.
Blaney notched two victories at Talladega with wins in 2019 and 2020. Keselowski’s former teammate at Team Penske, Blaney’s managed to stay out of trouble in Talladega better than many. One crash in the last 10 races is a good record. With a win in Daytona in 2021, he has a history of wins on the most prominent tracks.
Logano, a three-time winner at Talladega, took his third podium of 2023 last week in Martinsville. It’s been an up-and-down season for the defending champ. Second place in Daytona to start the season, a win in Atlanta, and just one top-10 finish in between to start the first stretch. Since that win in Atlanta, he’s finished 28th, seventh, 37th, and second. A win at a track where his team (Team Penske) has a history of solid performances would secure a spot in the playoffs.
All three of these drivers are current or former Team Penske drivers. That team will likely be strong again in Talladega this weekend.
Former winners close behind
There’s little difference between the top group of drivers in odds and the next group. Denny Hamlin, a two-time winner in Talladega, is next at +1100. His last win came in 2020 when he won the Yellawood 500 from the pole. He’s started three of the previous five races from the pole in Talladega. That’s converted to a win and a pair of top-seven finishes. Talladega is far from his best track on the calendar throughout his career. But he’s shown great pace there recently and could return to the top step.
Another trio of drivers is tied in odds in the following group: William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Ross Chastain are all +1200 for the win on Sunday.
Byron’s already a two-time winner this season but has never won in Talladega. His best result was second in the GEICO 500 back in 2021. Besides that, he’s only finished in the top five once in the 2020 Yellawood 500. His team, Hendrick Motorsports, did win the latest race in Talladega in October 2022. It stands to reason the team would be a strong challenger to Penske.
Elliott is back in the No. 9 car after suffering a fractured tibia in March. Last week’s return saw him take a 10th-place finish in Martinsville. This week, he heads to the site of his previous win in October 2022. It was the final of five wins in 2022 for the 2020 champion. In his career, Elliott’s been a standout driver in Talladega. His average finish (14th) there is better than any current driver on the grid with at least 10 races. A win would be a great way to mark his comeback and return to the front of the field.
Chastain is the defending GEICO 500 winner and took the victory from 19th on the grid. He followed that with a fourth-place finish in the Yellawood 500 late last season. He stayed out of trouble in his Talladega races (zero crashes in eight races) and could overtake Cup Series championship leader Christopher Bell with a win.
Longshots who could win
If you want to ride the Team Penske prowess in Talladega to a bigger payout, Austin Cindric at +2500 would be worth it. His crew chief Jeremy Bullins worked with Keselowski in his 2021 Talladega win and with Blaney in his first win in Talladega. That could make a difference for Cindric, who’s had a disappointing first part of 2023. He’s made it in the top 10 twice in Las Vegas and Austin. His only career Cup Series came at another long superspeedway: last year’s season opener in Daytona.
You’ll have to look pretty far down the order to find Aric Almirola’s name in the Cup Series standings. He’s 26th with just one top-10 finish this season, which came last week in Martinsville. But Talladega is one of his best tracks on the calendar. Only Richmond and Phoenix have been better. The 2018 1000Bulbs.com 500 in Talladega is one of three career wins on Almirola’s record. One of the other three? Daytona in 2014. At +2800, half the field is ahead of him in odds. But he could give you a great payout.
GEICO 500 predictions
This feels like another Logano victory waiting to happen. He came close in Daytona and is fresh off a podium finish in Martinsville. And Team Penske has been strong at Talladega for years. A win here would keep his title defense on track and ensure he’s in the mix in the playoffs.
Elliott could be a good bet with a little nicer payout if that’s too safe. He’s been one of the best drivers in Talladega in the past five years, and this would make for an emphatic note to his comeback from a leg injury. Of the longer shots, look to Cindric to offer a fantastic payout for the win with a great team behind him.
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