NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Odds: Larson, Hamlin lead favorites for Cup Series in Kansas

Denny Hamlin's won three races already in 2024. Can he go back-to-back this weekend?

Denny Hamlin held off a late charge from Kyle Larson to secure his third win of the season in Dover. That win moves him to a tie for 12th all-time with Lee Petty in NASCAR Cup Series history. With that unique track in the rearview, the grid heads to Kansas for round 12 of the season. The NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Odds predict another close battle at the front this weekend.

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NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Odds: Favorites for Kansas

  • Kyle Larson (+400)

Larson couldn’t make it past Hamlin in the closing laps in Dover but still managed his fifth top-five result of the season. He also won Stage Two to notch six stage wins this season and a series-best 126 stage points.

His consistent NASCAR results put him at the top of the standings again this week.

Larson’s had solid results in Kansas recently. Since 2019, he has one win (2021 fall race) and five other top-10 finishes. Only Hamlin can best his average finish (seventh) in that span.

After coming so close in Dover, Larson should be on the charge again. His dominant win in Las Vegas is a good sign for this weekend, given the similar tracks.

  • Denny Hamlin (+450)

Hamlin’s riding high after his third win in the first 11 races. That’s tied with William Byron for the most in 2024. It came after a rough patch in Texas and Talladega where he failed to crack the top 30 positions.

The good times could keep on coming for Hamlin this weekend. He’s finished sixth on average over the last 10 Cup Series races at the track, by far the best in the field.

His three wins (including this event last year) and seven total top-five finishes are also the best in the series in that span. He has yet to win consecutive races since 2010 but this could be a perfect opportunity. In any case, it’d be a shock if he wasn’t at the front.

  • Tyler Reddick (+650)

Reddick nearly made it six top-10 finishes in a row in Dover but ultimately crossed the finish line in 11th. Since an up-and-down start in the first five races of the season, Reddick has been one of the more consistent drivers on the Cup Series grid.

He won the most recent event at Kansas from fifth on the grid during the 2023 playoffs. A year prior, he started on pole position for that event before a crash took him out early on. He’s a consistently good qualifier in this format and nearly won in Las Vegas. He should be in for a good weekend.

  • William Byron (+725)

Byron got caught in a crash during a restart in Dover and ended up with one of his worst finishes of the season. It ended a run of five straight top-seven finishes, including two wins (Austin and Martinsville). He’ll be looking to bounce back this weekend.

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He’s never won in Kansas but finished in the top 10 in seven of his 12 career races at the track. He started from pole position at this event last year but finished third.

In the playoffs, he managed 15th from ninth on the grid. Byron already has three wins this season but it would be a surprise to see him get win No. 4 on Sunday.

  • Martin Truex Jr. (+750)

Truex Jr. continued his strong start to 2024 with third place in Dover and a win in Stage One. He’s second in the Cup Series standings thanks to never finishing lower than 18th this season. Another top-10 finish could be a lock for him in NASCAR this weekend.

Truex Jr.’s won twice in Kansas with a sweep of both races in 2017. Since then, he’s come close but never reached victory lane. He finished eighth in this race last year — his eighth consecutive top-10 finish at the track.

Last year’s playoff race at Kansas ended that streak thanks to a crash in the opening laps. A win could be a big ask but a top-five finish is well within reach.

Sleepers in Kansas

  • Chase Elliott (+1000)

Elliott holds the best career average finish in Kansas (10th) among active Cup Series drivers. He’s the only driver who can come close to Truex Jr.’s consistency this season with no finishes outside the top 19 positions. He managed fifth last time out in Dover.

It’s hard to find a safer sleeper than Elliott when betting on NASCAR this weekend. He has the recent form, a strong track record (including a win in 2018), and odds for a good payout.

Elliott’s sitting third in the championship thanks to his consistency and there’s no reason to think that’ll end this weekend.

  • Alex Bowman (+2000)

Bowman’s quietly made the top 10 in the Cup Series standings. His eighth place in Dover marked his fifth top-10 result in the last seven NASCAR races. He’s one of the better drivers in recent history at Kansas.

The last 10 events have seen him finish eighth on average behind only Hamlin, Larson, and Elliott. He’s a strong driver here and could surprise with a maiden win this season.

  • Joey Logano (+2800)

Logano’s inconsistent 2024 continued with a 16th-place finish in Dover. He’s managed just one top-five finish so far this season but Kansas is a solid opportunity for a turnaround.

He started on pole in Las Vegas and won the playoff race there in 2020. It’d be a surprise to see him in victory lane but his odds make him a potential high-reward bet.

NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Odds: Predictions

After a close finish in Dover, Kansas should provide more close racing. Multiple drivers have solid track records here and should be in the fight for victory.

Of the favorites, we like Reddick (+650) to make it two wins in a row at Kansas. Of the sleepers, look for Elliott (+1000) to get to the front. We like a top five of Reddick (-125), Elliott (+180), Truex Jr. (+130), Hamlin (-120), and Logano (+450).

For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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