NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Rolls into Kansas

The NASCAR Cup Series continues Sunday at Kansas Speedway in preparation for the All-Star race the following week in Texas. We’ll break down and analyze the AdventHealth 400 along with providing value picks among this weekend’s odds. Last year’s AdventHealth 400 was named the Buschy McBusch Race 400. We will be referring to it as last year’s spring race.

Who Wins?

When placing you NASCAR Kansas Speedway bets, the first thing you should do is simply go and look and see who’s won at the track. At the top, we have Denny Hamlin (+750), who is tied with Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano among active drivers with three wins at Kansas. Over the last six races at Kansas, Hamlin has enjoyed three top-five finishes, including a pair of wins.

While Harvick (+1800) has done well at Kansas Speedway in the last six runnings, illustrated by four top-five finishes, he hasn’t taken a checkered flag here since 2018. Still, he leads all active drivers with an average finish of 8.9 over 32 career races. Could this be the week he takes his first checkered flag since 2020? He’s been solid so far this season and has finished in the top 10 in each of the last three races and six out of 12 this season.

Logano (+1200) may be tied for the lead among active drivers with three wins, but he lags behind that same pack when it comes to average finish at just 17.1. Logano is hot right now coming off a bump-and-run win at Darlington.

Who are the Favorites?

Kyle Larson is listed as the favorite for the NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas with +550 odds. While he finished 19th in last year’s spring race at Kansas, he won the fall race. He has an average finish of 15.5 at Kansas all-time, including six top-10 finishes. This may not be one of Larson’s strongest tracks, but his talent level has him in the running week in and week out.

It’s easy to see why Vegas has pegged Chase Elliott as having some of the lowest odds for this weekend at +750. While he has one win on this track back in 2018, it’s been his performance over the past six races in the NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas that have earned these odds. It doesn’t include a win, but he leads here on average over the last six races (5.2). Among active drives, Elliott’s average finish of 9.8 over 12 races, he’s second only to Harvick. Over the last six races at Kansas, Harvick’s average finish of 5.5 is second only to Elliott.

What Happened Last Time?

Kyle Busch won the spring race at Kansas last season. He has one other career win at this track back in 2016, but was tied for the second-best odds at +750. He’s raced here 28 times and has an average finish of 15.6. However, since the fall race in 2014, his average finish is almost half of that (8.5).

Harvick finished second in the spring race while Brad Keselowski finished third. Matt DiBenedetto finished fourth, Elliott fifth and Martin Truex Jr. was sixth. Tyler Reddick finished seventh, Chris Buescher was eighth, William Byron finished ninth and Austin Dillon rounded out the top 10.

Anyone Else?

Byron (+1000) was in line for his third win of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season last weekend before Logano’s bump-and-run tactics caused him to go into the outside wall and finish 13th. Byron hasn’t won at Kansas but has run consistently well. In eight races, he’s finished inside the top 10 five times.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000) has also seen some success at Kansas recently. He’s got one top-five finish to show for it and five top-10 finishes. He actually has the same average finish over the last six races as three-time winner Hamlin.

Ross Chastain (+900) is going to make this list every week just because of the season he’s having. He’s impossible to overlook at this point.

If you’re looking for a longshot, you won’t have to look very far. Keselowski is currently available at +8000. Three years ago, you couldn’t imagine seeing someone of Keselowski’s pedigree with odds this high. But this season and the new car setups haven’t been kind to Keselowski.

Outside of his ninth-place finish in the Daytona 500, he hasn’t cracked the top 10 again. However, over the last six races at Kansas, he’s third among active drivers with an average finish of 7.7, including four top-five finishes and a win.