NASCAR All-Star Open Odds & Betting Analysis

The Cup Series takes a quick break Sunday as the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway is technically an exhibition race with no points on the line. While there may not be any implications with the standings, drivers will be racing with $1 million on the line. Below, we analyze and provide betting tips for the NASCAR All-Star open odds.

What’s New?

Last month, NASCAR decided to alter some of the rules from last year’s All-Star race. The race will be 125 laps divided into four stages, with the first three stages being 25 laps each. The winner of Stage 1 will start on the pole in the final stage as long as he finishes 15th or better in Stage 2 and Stage 3. Be sure to check out all of our NASCAR betting tips.

The winner of Stage 2 will start second in the final stage as long as he finishes 15th or better in Stage 3, while the winner of Stage 3 will start third in the final stage. There will be a pit crew competition between Stage 2 and Stage 3, and the team that finishes the fastest will start fourth in Stage 4.

Since this is just an exhibition, betting on this NASCAR race won’t have any impact on the driver standings, be sure to check the latest NASCAR All-Star Open Odds

Are the Favorites Worth It?

Kyle Larson enters with the lowest All-Star open odds (+600) to take the checkered flag and the $1 million check that comes with it. It’s easy to see why, as Larson took the checkered flag in both last year’s All-Star Race, as well as the playoff race in October. He also took the checkered flag in the 2019 All-Star Race. While he’s far from the active leader in average finish on this track at 18.4, we’ve seen enough from him recently to warrant the number.

Kyle Busch (+800) has done well historically at Texas. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 since 2018 and has a win in 2020, as well as a win in the 2017 All-Star Race. Busch’s average finish is 10.9 and is easily one of the best active drivers on this track. In 31 career Cup Series races, Busch has 18 top-10 finishes, 14 top-five finishes, four wins, and he is the active leader with 1,069 laps led.

A trio of Chevys William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Ross Chastain enter at +1000 with the third-lowest odds. Byron has run seven times at Texas Motor Speedway and he has finished in the top 10 three times and the top five once.

Chastain has become one of the darlings of the NASCAR season. He has never finished better than 18th at Texas, but with the improbable season he’s having, one certainly can’t count him out from at least being in the running down the stretch.

As for Elliott, he’s run at Texas 11 times in his Cup Series career with an average finish of 11.5. He has six top-10 finishes and two top-five finishes. While he may not have a win in a Cup Series race at Texas, he did take the checkered flag in the 2020 All-Star Race. Be sure to update yourself with the latest NASCAR All-Star Open Odds.

Best of the Rest

It’s hard to overlook drivers who have won at a particular track in the past. Denny Hamlin at +1200 might be a gift. He’s tied for second-most wins at Texas among active drivers with three and has seven top-five finishes as well. That doesn’t include when Hamlin took the checkered flag in the 2015 All-Star Race.

Joey Logano and Kurt Busch are a couple of other big names to take into consideration for Sunday. They both have won at Texas in the Cup Series, as well as the All-Star Race. Logano’s All-Star victory came back in 2016 while Kurt Busch won back in 2010. Busch also took the checkered flag at Kansas in the last race. Both enter at +2000.

Where’s the Value?

Kevin Harvick also has three Cup Series wins at Texas and is the only active driver to have multiple All-Star Race wins. In 37 Cup Series races, he’s finished in the top 10, 24 times, with 13 finishes in the top five, however, Harvick hasn’t won since 2020, which is why he enters at +4000 odds.

While Harvick provides value, there are still some other drivers with some nice longshot odds for the NASCAR All-Star open. Erik Jones at +4000 provides some of that value we’re looking for. In 10, Cup Series races at Texas, he’s finished in the top 10 six times and has three top-five finishes.

Last but not least, Brad Keselowski at +8000 is too good to pass up. While he’s never won at Texas, he has 11 finishes inside the top 10 and six finishes in the top five in 26 career races with a career-best finish of second place. He’s too big of a name and he’ll likely win at least one this season. It’s time to bet on NASCAR race.