NASCAR Ally 400 Outright Odds & Betting Analysis

The NASCAR Cup Series is back after a one-week break for Father’s Day. Now, drivers are back in action as they head to Nashville. Here, we’ll give you all the information you need to know, including the best Ally 400 outright odds.

Track info

• Nashville Superspeedway is a 1.33-mile track that opened back in 2001. For years, it hosted NASCAR Busch Series races (now the Xfinity Series), as well as truck series races. It’s a relatively new race, as this is just the second Cup Series race being held here.
• The race is 400 miles long and has a total of 300 laps. Stage 1 is 90 laps, Stage 2 is 95 laps, and the final stage is 115 laps.

Who Are the Favorites?

Kyle Larson enters as the favorite among the Ally 400 outright odds to take the checkered flag and end up in victory lane. It’s easy to see why, as Larson won at Nashville last season. Larson dominated throughout. He finished second to end Stage 1 after starting in fifth. He won Stage 2 before going on to win the race. He led 264 of the 400 laps (88%). Most of the time, Larson or the other favorites are closer to +300 odds to win, leaving little value. But at +550 for the favorite, a bet on Larson could still hold some value with plenty of meat left on the bone.

Kyle Busch (+750) has the second-lowest Ally 400 outright odds. While he finished 11th in last year’s race, he led the third-most amount of laps and was one of only three drivers to have led a double-digit amount. That could be because Busch has a good amount of experience in Nashville. In fact, Busch earned his 100th career Xfinity Series win at the superspeedway.

In the Cup Series race, Busch carried over his success. He started the race in second before finishing fourth in Stage 1 and fifth in Stage 2. Unless he crashes out, there’s no reason Busch shouldn’t be in the running at the end.

At +800, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain enter with the third-lowest Ally 400 outright odds. Chastain has seemingly come out of nowhere this season and is currently second behind only Elliott for the Cup Series Championship. But if you look back at Chastain’s results last season, you may realize he didn’t exactly come out of nowhere.

While he didn’t earn his first career win until this year, he did have eight top-10 finishes and three top-five finishes. In fact, the best finish he had in 2021 came in the form of a second-place finish at Nashville.

Elliott’s afternoon at Nashville was interesting last year. He won Stage 1 but was later disqualified and stripped of the points for winning the stage after it was found he had five loose lug nuts on the car. Elliott’s 13 laps led on the track were the second-most on the day only to Larson. At +800, a bet on the defending Cup Series Champion could be worth your while.

Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Denny Hamlin each enter at +1000 with the fifth-lowest betting odds to win. Blaney and Logano are neck-and-neck in the standings with Blaney holding just a five-point lead. Logano has won two races this season while Blaney has yet to record a Cup Series win. The win at Texas in the All-Star Race doesn’t count as a Cup Series win.

Both drivers have been incredibly consistent. They have the same number of top-five finishes with five – with Blaney holding a slight edge in top-10 finishes, with eight to Logano’s seven. But Blaney has four stage wins to Logano’s two. Logano finished 10th last season after starting third. Blaney didn’t finish due to an accident.

While Hamlin is one of only four drivers with multiple wins this season, he hasn’t been consistent. Only once has he finished inside the top 10 or top 5 in a race he didn’t win. He’s also tied for second in DNFs with four. In last year’s race, Hamlin finished 21st but ran well most of the day. He finished 10th at the end of Stage 1 and sixth at the end of Stage 2.

It’s hard to discount Hamlin here. On intermediate tracks, Hamlin is tied with Busch for the second-most career wins (17) and has the most since February of 2019 with eight. A Hamlin bet isn’t an awful one, but his consistency this season would still be in the back of my mind.

Best of the Rest

William Byron at +1400 sticks out to us. After falling out of the top 10 early, Byron made his way back up and finished fourth at the end of Stage 2. Byron is one of only four drivers with multiple wins on the season and it won’t be a surprise to see him contending for his third by the end of the day.

Where’s the Value?

Daniel Suarez hasn’t really been on anybody’s radar much this year, but better late than never. Despite starting the race in second place, he was able to move all the way up to third by the end of Stage 1 before ultimately finishing in second. He won at Sonoma before the Cup Series took the following week off. Will that cool him down?

At +4000, there’s quite a bit of value on Aric Almirola. He’s quietly put together a solid season to this point. While he doesn’t have a win to his name and just two top-five finishes and five top-10 finishes, he finishes races. In fact, he’s the only driver in the top 15 of the Cup Series standings with no DNFs, and that’s important when factoring in NASCAR betting odds. In last year’s race at Nashville, he started the race in first before ultimately finishing the race in fourth. If not an outright bet, Almirola could be a worthy prop bet.

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