NASCAR Cup: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Odds & Analysis

The NASCAR Cup Series heads south to the Lone Star State for the next round of the playoffs. Here, we’ll analyze the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds so you have everything you need to know before placing a wager this weekend.

Track Info

Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile track with a 20-degree banking in the first two turns and 24-degree banking in turns three and four. Drivers will race approximately 500 miles over a rough total of 334 laps, excluding any overtime. Stage 1 and Stage 2 will be 105 miles each with the final stage being 124 laps.

Who are the favorites?

Instead of the typical names we’ve seen atop the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds board, it’s Christopher Bell that holds the honor this week at +600 along with Denny Hamlin.

Excluding a pair of All-Star races, Bell has performed well at Texas, including a pair of third-place finishes. As for Hamlin, he placed second in the All-Star race at Texas earlier this season and won back in 2019. The oddsmakers clearly think it’s going to be a Toyota’s day by putting these two drivers at the top of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds board.

Kyle Larson comes in at +700. He won the fall race at Texas last season after also winning the All-Star race earlier that season. Larson also has a second-place finish with a pair of fifth-place finishes and could’ve very well been the favorite for this race. Larson is currently fourth in the NASCAR standings and a win here would likely at least vault him into the top two.

At +800 is Chase Elliott. This track hasn’t been one of Elliott’s favorites, as he’s yet to record a win at Texas. His best finish was finishing third at the 2021 All-Star race. In official NASCAR Cup Series standings starts, he’s finished in the top 10 just once in his last five starts. Considering the small price between the Hendrick Motorsports teammates, Larson packs much more value than Elliott this week.

Right Up There

Next on the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds board is a trio of drivers in Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr at +1000.

Busch was knocked out of the NASCAR playoff standings after a DNF at Bristol. He’s still arguably the best active driver at Texas Motor Speedway. He’s placed in the top five in 14 of 31 career races with four wins.

Blaney has performed well at Texas over his career. He won the All-Star Race in the spring, but it didn’t count toward the NASCAR standings. In his last 10 Texas starts, he’s finished outside the top 10 only once. Half of them have been top-five finishes

It’s Truex’s odds that stick out. He has just five top-five finishes in 32 Cup Series starts at Texas. He finished second in 2020, but sharing the same value as Blaney and Busch with much better resumes doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Where’s the Value?

When analyzing the board this week, there’s one driver that jumped off the page; Joey Logano at +1800. While he hasn’t won at Texas since 2014, he has 11 top-five finishes in 26 starts. That being said, you can get Logano at +200 to finish in the top five.

In the same breath, Blaney might be worth a top-five bet on top of an outright bet. He can be had at +120 for a top-five finish. Busch almost made this list, but it looked like he’s ready to be done after being bounced from the playoffs at Bristol. It’s not like Busch to just mail it in, but his sights are likely on next season with his new team at Richard Childress Racing.

Alex Bowman at +2000 odds is also worth consideration. He’s one of the 12 drivers still contending for a championship and has raced well recently. He’s +250 to finish in the top five.