NASCAR Cup Series: Daytona 500 Prop Bets

Prop Analysis for Season Opener

The NASCAR Cup Series schedule kicks off with its biggest race of the season in the Daytona 500. It’s a brand new season with a new slate. Will it be a savvy veteran or a relative unknown that winds up in victory lane? Read on for the best Daytona 500 prop bets available and what makes them so intriguing.

Starting at the Top

During qualifying, it was the Chevrolets that looked to be the dream of the crop with Alex Bowman taking the pole, narrowly edging Kyle Larson. The great thing about Daytona 500 prop bets is the space to maneuver. At some tracks, mostly non-superspeedways, the odds are much lower. The implied randomness of Daytona however makes things slightly more difficult to handicap considering a driver can be running well all day, just to see their day end with a wreck.

If you believe one of the top Chevys that dominated qualifying will run well, Larson is Even odds to place in the top 10, while Bowman is fetching +125. When betting on NASCAR props, top-10 bets are a way to go if the bettor isn’t confident enough to place an outright bet on the driver, but feels good enough that they will finish well. Another strategy when betting looking at NASCAR betting odds, particularly the top-10 bets, is a way to backup the bettor’s outright bets. Larson is currently getting +1600 odds to win. The bettor could place a small wager at those longshot odds but bet heavier on a top-10 finish.

Ford, Ford, Ford

While it was the Chevrolets that dominated qualifying, it was Ford that was the big winner of the Duels Thursday evening. Defending Cup Series Champion Joey Logano won Duel 1, while Aric Almirola won Duel 2. Including Logano, four of the top-five finishes were Ford drivers. The case was similar in Duel 2, with Ford taking three of the top five spots. Teams will surely make adjustments going into practice as well as the main event on Sunday, but Ford’s dominant day didn’t go unnoticed.

Ford is currently +150 to be the winning constructor/manufacturer among the Daytona 500 prop bets, just behind Chevrolet at +120. Other Daytona 500 prop bets include which Ford driver will finish best. Ryan Blaney and Logano are both +400 in the said category with Brad Keselowski right behind at +600.

The 2022 Daytona 500 champion, Austin Cindric, comes in at +700 to be the top Ford, with Chase Briscoe, Aric Almirola, and Kevin Harvick tied at +1000. Harvick already announced this would be his last season and is the exact type of savvy veteran that could find himself in victory lane. Almirola might be the driver with the most value among the Fords, and his car looked like it had something extra in Duel 2.

Chevrolet Best Value

Just like with the Ford drivers, there’s plenty of star power among the Chevrolet drivers. Chase Elliott is the favorite among the group at +600. His teammates, William Byron and Larson are close behind at +700. One thing that will likely be a tough adjustment for longtime NASCAR fans will be seeing Kyle Busch back in a Chevy after years with Joe Gibbs racing. He comes in at +800 among the Chevrolets along with fan favorite Ross Chastain. Chastain shook up the NASCAR world when he pulled what he described as a video-game move, riding the wall to get the last finals spot last season.

Alex Bowman at +1000 might have the most value of the bunch. It’s an outside shot, but he’s always had fast cars at Daytona. This will be the third Daytona race of his career that Bowman enters as the pole sitter and the seventh time he’ll be starting from the front row. It’ll just be a matter of if he can hang tough down the stretch, as his best finish at Daytona is seventh.

Toyotas offer Value

The field of Toyotas is much smaller compared to that of the Chevrolets and the Fords, but pack arguably just as much star power as the two. Denny Hamlin enters as the favorite in this field at +220. Bubba Wallace has come close multiple times to winning at Daytona. He’s finished second in two of his last three outings at Daytona and has three second-place finishes at Daytona. At +350, there’s some value there.

Three drivers come in tied at +550: Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. Of those, Bell might have the best value. He finished the 2022 season in the final four and picked up right where he left off with a second-place finish in Duel 1 in which Logano narrowly edged Bell at the line.

Ty Gibbs might have some value at +900 considering how good he was at the Xfinity Series level early last season. Even with him getting some reps in the Cup Series down the stretch last season while Kurt Busch was out with a concussion, he wasn’t a world-beater by any means. The verdict is still out on whether or not he can race with the big boys yet. At +3000, Travis Pastrana might be one of the more well-known drivers on the entire starting grid but doesn’t pack much value.

Placement Bets

Among the best Daytona 500 prop bets are the placement bets. As was covered earlier, this is a great way for a bettor to hedge his longshot outright bets. However, rookie bettors will sometimes load up on these bets and take too many.

Below are some of the best placement value bets on the board.

It’s been hard to overlook Wallace’s success at Daytona since 2018. He’s currently even odds for a top-10 finish. Anytime he’s finished in the top 10, however, he’s also finished in the top five. He’s available at +175 to do just that. The real value might be Wallace to finish in the top three at +375. Look to possibly hedge these with Bell as the top Toyota at +550. Among the top-10 finisher bets, Kyle Busch at +110 sticks out. Nobody holds a grudge quite like Busch and he will likely be racing pissed off. He worked his way to the front in Duel 1 before being spun out by Daniel Suarez.

One driver to consider that is a relative newcomer is Noah Gragson. Gragson dominated the Xfinity Series for a stretch last year, including a streak during which he won four consecutive races. While it’s almost certain he’ll never achieve that level of dominance in the Cup Series, he’s a great value pick for this race. He finished fifth at Daytona in August, yet is fetching +230 to finish in the top 10. A repeat top-five performance for Gragson can be had at +900.
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