NASCAR Cup Series: Dixie Vodka 400 Odds & Analysis
Playoffs Heat Up in South Beach
Following a tough race in the desert in Las Vegas, drivers head back East to Homestead-Miami. Here, we give you everything you need to know about the Dixie Vodka 400 odds before you think about placing a bet.
Event Info:
Race: Dixie Vodka 400
Date & Time & Streaming:
Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Track Info
Homestead-Miami has been on the NASCAR schedule ever since 1999. There’s 18-20 degree banking into each turn with the straightaways being three degrees. Drivers will race 400.5 miles over 267 laps. Stages one and two will be 80 laps each with the final stage 107.
Current Playoff Standings
With the win at Las Vegas, Joey Logano jumped Chase Elliott for first place in the NASCAR Cup standings. He leads with 4,084 points, though his win automatically qualified him for the next round of the playoffs.
Not only did Logano jump Elliott, but so did Ross Chastain after a second-place finish in Las Vegas. It’s just by one point however, as Chastain will be looking for another good performance to fend off Elliott. What’s more important though, is just qualifying for the next round.
Elliott, who once held a 20-point lead, is now looking up at a pair of drivers in the standings. After a less than stellar performance at Las Vegas, Elliott will be looking to not only move back up in the standings, but qualify for the next round as well.
Denny Hamlin currently holds the last playoff spot and sits six points ahead of William Byron. Bad news for Hamlin is that Byron won this race last year, so if there was ever a chance Byron could jump into the top four, it’s at Homestead-Miami.
Chase Briscoe sits sixth, nine points off Hamlin for fourth, Ryan Blaney seventh and 11 points off Hamlin and Christopher Bell 23 points off Hamlin.
Who are the favorites?
Here, we dive into the Dixie Vodka 400 odds. At the top of the NASCAR odds board, we have Tyler Reddick as the betting favorite at +750. While he has just two Cup Series starts at Homestead-Miami, his performances have been incredible. As a rookie in 2020, he placed fourth. He came close in 2021, but was ultimately no cigar, as he finished second.
Hamlin enters close behind at +800. He has three career wins at Homestead-Miami, the latest of which came in 2020. In 17 faces, he’s finished in the top 10 11 times and in the top five five times. This is the perfect track for Hamlin to be able to separate himself and get his name off the bubble.
Though not in the playoff hunt, Kyle Larson comes in at +850. He’s placed in the top five in half of his Cup Series starts at Homestead-Miami with a best of second place. The following year, he finished third. Look for Larson to throw a wrench into the playoff standings Sunday.
Chastain has had an incredible season to this point. He’s the guy that, if someone told you he’d be in second in the round of eight, people would’ve laughed at you prior to the season. But here we are at +900 to win at Homestead-Miami. He’s never finished better than 17th, however. Chastain has shocked us multiple times this season and wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he defied the odds again.
Best of the Rest
Logano, Bell and Blaney all come in tied at +1000 among the Dixie Vodka 400 odds.
Logano’s last two times out at Homestead-Miami have been less than admirable, finishing below 25th. Before that, Logano was on quite the stretch there. He’d finished in the top six five NASCAR races in a row, including a win in 2018.
Bell has just two Cup Series starts at Homestead-Miami. He started third last season after qualifying but was out of the top 10 by the end of the first stage. His best finish came in 2020 in the form of an eighth-place finish.
Blaney has seven career starts here with only two being noteworthy. He placed third in 2020 and 11th in 2019, though he had been running in the top 10 through both stages that day.
They Could Win
Tied at +1200 are Kyle Busch, Byron, Elliott and Martin Truex Jr.
Busch has quite the resume at Miami, including two wins. He’s also finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 10 starts there. He also proved in Las Vegas he’s not given up for this year after finishing third.
As we mentioned above, this may be Byron’s best chance to do some damage and move up in the standings. He won this race last season and finished ninth the season before. If Byron is going to be your bet, you might consider taking it sooner than later, as Byron’s qualifying results could impact the number and the value.
At one point in the season, it would’ve been considered crazy to see Elliott above +900 at any non-superspeedway. In six Cup Series starts, he’s finished in the top 10 three times and top five twice, including a second-place finish in 2020.
Truex Jr. has performed quite well here recently. He placed third last year after placing second in 2018 and 2019. He managed to win in 2017. Another driver out of contention for the Cup, Truex Jr will still be racing hard come Sunday.
Where’s the Value?
We nailed Logano at +1600 in this section last week and hoping for another good week.
That starts with Elliott at +1200. He was the leader almost all season and is still a top driver heading into Homestead-Miami. While it may not be his favorite track, he’s shown results good enough to make this number valuable.
Kevin Harvick at +1600 also makes this list. He’s placed in the top 5 in seven of his last eight starts at Homestead-Miami. In 21 career starts, he’s finished outside of the top 10 just three times.
With the number that high, it gives you plenty of room to play around with props. He can be had at -165 to finish in the top 10, an implied probability of 62.26%, despite the fact he’s 85.71% at achieving that mark. He’s +200 for a top-five finish and +400 for a top-three finish.
Next on the NASCAR schedule is Martinsville.
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