NASCAR Cup Series Outright Odds: Top Contenders for 2024 Championship
Here's Who's Driving at Top Level in The Cup Series at Summer Break.
The summer break is here in the NASCAR Cup Series. The Brickyard 400 saw championship leader Kyle Larson grab his fourth win of the season, the most on the grid.
It marked the final race until Aug. 11 when the grid returns to Richmond Raceway for the second race there of 2024. With this time to pause and re-assess the season, here’s a look at the NASCAR Cup Series Outright Odds.
NASCAR Cup Series Outright Odds: Favorites
Kyle Larson (+450)
The championship leader is an easy pick to win his second Cup Series title this season. His NASCAR odds are so low thanks to his recent form. He’s won three times in the last 11 races, more than any other driver on the grid. Two drivers have two wins in that span: Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney.
Larson struggled with bad luck in 2023. He could have had four or five wins at this point in the season last year instead of two. He still finished runner-up to Blaney last season with third place in Phoenix.
But it’s his playoff form that could make the difference this season.
He’s won eight playoff races in the last three years, with five in his title-winning 2021 season. Larson could get hot once again but has a much more consistent regular season to back him up this time.
Denny Hamlin (+450)
Hamlin looked like a proper title contender through much of the season until a recent lull. In the first 15 championship races, Hamlin finished outside of the top 20 three times. He’s now done that five times in the last seven races, including a late wreck last week in Indianapolis.
Still, this is a driver who won three of the first 11 races this season. When he gets hot, it’s impressive. He just needs to regain that form at some point.
Luckily, the back stretch of the schedule includes some of his best tracks like Richmond, Martinsville, and Darlington. If he can get some of that consistency back in September and October, he should be in the fight.
Christopher Bell (+450)
Bell has made the Championship 4 race in each of the last two seasons despite just five races overall. This year, he’s matched his career regular season win total by the summer break with three victories (Phoenix, Charlotte, and Loudon).
Bell’s in the playoffs and once he’s there, he could improve on his top-four finishes from 2022 and 2023. He’s raced well in the final tracks on the schedule.
He won at Homestead in 2023 and in Martinsville in 2022. Earlier this year, he won in Phoenix, the site of the season finale. He’s been less consistent than Hamlin or Larson but his highs are high enough to make him a championship threat.
William Byron (+600)
Byron is third in the championship among Hendrick Motorsports drivers thanks to an incredibly hot start. He won three of the first eight races across types of tracks: Daytona, Austin, and Martinsville.
Since then, he’s struggled to regain that form with just four top-five results in the last 14 races. He had his worst result of the year in Indianapolis last weekend.
Byron made the Championship 4 for the first time last year. His NASCAR results in the playoffs were impressively consistent with no finishes outside the top 15. If he can repeat that consistency but just a few spots higher, he’s a contender to win his first title.
Ryan Blaney (+800)
Blaney started his title defense slow with just four top-five results in the first 16 races. He’s turned it on more recently with wins in Iowa and Pocono as well as top-10 finishes in Nashville (sixth), Chicago (10th), and Indianapolis (third).
Blaney stepped up at the perfect time in the playoffs last year to win the title in his first appearance in the Championship 4. Was that a one-off or was it his true pace in the postseason? He’ll have a chance to prove himself again this NASCAR season. He’s won it before and should be taken seriously as a contender again.
Sleepers
Chase Elliott (+1000)
Elliott lost the championship lead to fellow Hendrick Motorsports driver Larson but he’s still the most consistent driver in NASCAR in 2024. Through the first 22 races, Elliott’s missed the top 20 just once. No other driver has fewer than five such results.
If there was a NASCAR race today, Elliott’s the safest bet for a good result. He missed the playoffs last season thanks to a leg injury.
Before that, he made the Championship 4 in three consecutive seasons, including his title-winning 2020 campaign. Elliott’s consistency makes him a title threat despite just one victory so far this season.
Tyler Reddick (+1400)
Reddick is next behind Elliott in consistency this season, especially leading up to the break. He’s on a run of eight top-10 finishes in the last nine races. He took pole position and led the most laps last time out in Indianapolis.
Last year, Reddick started strong in the playoffs before fading in the Round of 8. This year, he’s already raced well on multiple playoff ovals. After finishing second in Las Vegas he led the most laps en route to 10th in Phoenix.
In Martinsville, he finished seventh. His lone win of the season came in Talladega and he finished fourth in Texas. He should be a strong contender this time around.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1400)
Last year’s regular season champion dropped off sharply in the postseason. This year, he’s hit a rut in the middle of the regular season. He’s on a run of just four top-15 results in the last 10 races.
Still, he won the title in 2017 and made the Championship 4 as recently as 2021. Despite his recent form, Truex Jr. is still seventh in the NASCAR standings. If he gets through this rough patch now instead of in the postseason, he could be in for a much better result in 2024 than 2023.
Brad Keselowski (+2000)
Keselowski broke his win drought in Darlington amid a bounce-back season. His seven top-five finishes at this point in the calendar is his most since 2021, when he finished sixth in the championship. He’s in his best form since leaving Team Penske.
It’s a long shot for the 2012 Cup Series champion. But he’s done it before and finished second to Elliott in 2020. Last year, he had his best form of the season in the first two rounds of the playoffs. If he can rise to the occasion again and pair that with his best form since 2020, Keselowski could be a factor through the postseason.
NASCAR Cup Series Outright Odds: Predictions
At this point of the season, there are lots of drivers with at least a good chance at the title. But it is still hard to predict who will be in the right place at the right time come the playoffs. The Cup Series has had first-time champions in three of the last four seasons.
But Bell (+450) is our pick to continue that trend of first-time champions. Of the sleepers, Elliott (+1000) is our pick thanks to his mix of consistency and pedigree. If you want a better payout, go with Reddick (+1400).
For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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