NASCAR Cup Series: South Point 400 Preview and odds & Analysis

Playoffs Turn Up Heat in Las Vegas

Following an exciting weekend in Charlotte, drivers head to the southwest for a weekend in the desert in Las Vegas. Here, you’ll find everything you need to know in our South Point 400 preview and odds analysis.

Track info

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval track. Turns range from 12 to 20-degree banking. Each of the first two stages will consist of 67 laps before the 107-lap final stage. Denny Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing took the checkered flag in this race last season.

Race Information

Date: Sun, Oct 16, 12:30
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Current Playoff Standings

Chase Elliott managed to widen his lead at Talladega and is now 20 points ahead of the next closest driver in the standings with his 4,046 points.

Joey Logano is currently second with 4,026 points. From there, things get much closer, as Ross Chastain trails Logano by just five points.

Christopher Bell saw the biggest jump, as he went from a bubble spot and the outside looking into the fourth-place spot after a win at Talladega. He trails Chastain by just three points for third.

Ryan Blaney and William Byron are tied for fifth and trail Bell by three points for the fourth and final spot in the next round. Hamlin is two points behind them in seventh with Chase Briscoe trailing Hamlin by four.

Who are the favorites?

Second on the odds board is Elliott at +700. He’s yet to pull off a win at Las Vegas but has come close a few times, including this race last season when he finished second. Even in the spring race, he came in ninth. Elliott is atop the standings for a reason and you can expect another solid performance from him on Sunday.

Here, we’ll get to dive into the South Point 400 preview and odds analysis. Hamlin enters as the favorite at +600. His car gave out on him in the race at Las Vegas earlier this season but had a good stretch of performances before that. He won this race last year and finished third and fourth in the two races in Las Vegas a season ago. This is a prime chance for Hamlin to make a jump in the standings.

Second on the odds board is Elliott at +700. He’s yet to pull off a win at Las Vegas but has come close a few times, including last season when he finished second. Even in the spring race, he came in ninth. Elliott is atop the standings for a reason and you can fully expect another solid performance from him on Sunday.

Perhaps a bit surprising, Bell has the third-lowest odds entering Las Vegas at +800. He finished 10th in the spring and his best finish at Las Vegas came as a seventh-place finish last season. He did qualify first for the spring race, however, so perhaps Bell can break through for another win and guarantee himself a spot in the next round of the playoffs in the NASCAR Cup Series standings.

Chastain is tied with that mark of +800. Before the spring race earlier this season, Chastain’s performances at Las Vegas had been rather lackluster. That changed with a third-place finish. He’ll be hoping for another solid finish to at least keep him in contention and not lose any ground.

Best of the Rest

Tyler Reddick comes in at +900 odds. He’s performed well in his last two trips to the desert. He finished sixth in this race last year and seventh in the spring race earlier this season. The oddsmakers must’ve liked what they’ve seen to put Reddick this high on the board.

Blaney and Kyle Larson each enter at +1000. Blaney has run well at Las Vegas in the past, he just hasn’t had the luck to emerge as the victor. An accident ruined his day the last time out in the spring. Before that, he had finished in the top 10 in four of his previous five at Las Vegas with three finishes in the top five. Perhaps Blaney’s luck can change this time out.

As for Larson, he might be one of the drivers to target. He’s finished in the top 10 in eight of his last 10 starts at Las Vegas with a win. He’s placed in the top three in five of those races. Barring an accident, he should be in the running down the stretch.

They could win

Tied at +1200 are Kyle Busch, William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. Busch’s only win in Las Vegas came back in 2009. He has had a stretch of solid performances there lately, finishing no lower than fourth in his last three Las Vegas starts.

Byron will be looking to improve upon his current spot in the Cup Series Playoff standings. In his last two starts in the desert, he’s placed in the top 10 twice, including a fifth-place finish back in the spring.

This is a track Truex Jr. has had success at. He finished eighth last time out and has finished in the top 10, nine times in his last 10 Vegas starts – including a pair of wins. Though he’s out of the hunt, there’s value in Truex.

Where’s the Value? 

The value section for Charlotte Roval was a mixed bag. Suarez didn’t live up to expectations and was eliminated from the playoffs. Allmendinger did finish fourth to cash his top-five finish prop.

We’ve already mentioned him, but Larson is solid among NASCAR odds and picks. He’s won here before and has plenty of races where he finished near the top of the field. He’s finished in the top three in half of his last 10 starts at Las Vegas but we can get +250 value on him to do so and plus-money odds for a top-five finish as well.

At +1600, Logano might be worth the look. He’s second in the playoff standings and is tied for second among active drivers in wins at Las Vegas. There was a nine-race stretch from 2014 to 2020 where he didn’t finish outside of the top 10.

Brad Keselowski had a similar streak. He’s the active leader in wins at Las Vegas with three, though his performance this year was spotty with the new car and team. Still, at +8000, there’s some outright value. He can also be had at +240 for a top-10 finish.

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