NASCAR Kwik Trip 250 Outrights Odds & Betting Analysis

Will Elliott Keep Performing at a High Level?

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Eikhart Lake, Wisconsin for the second road course in the last three races for the Cup Series. Here, you’ll find everything you need to know, from the very short history of the event to who might be your best Kwik Trip 250 outrights.

Track Info

While Road America is no new track, it is new to the Cup Series. NASCAR held a race at Road America back in 1956 and was promoted as “America’s First International Stock Car Road Race.” The next race Road America would host for NASCAR wouldn’t come until 2010, when the Nationwide Series (now Xfinity Series) agreed to put it on the schedule.

When NASCAR released its 2021 schedule, Road America was the Fourth of July weekend stop.

Who are the Favorites?

When looking at the Kwik Trip 250 outrights, Chase Elliott enters as the favorite at +500. It should be of no surprise to see Elliott as the favorite at this point. He took the checkered flag in last week’s race at Nashville and is currently atop the NASCAR Cup Series odds to win the championship.

Elliott also won last season’s race at Road America, adding to his already-impressive resume on road courses. His seven road course wins are the most among active drivers, with six of those wins coming in 14 since February of 2019. Even when he doesn’t win it, he’s in the running, illustrated by the fact he’s finished in the top five in 10 of the 14. He’s the favorite for a reason.

His teammate Kyle Larson enters with the second-highest odds among Kwik Trip 250 outrights. While Larson finished 16th in last year’s race at Road America, he does have the second-most wins at road courses since 2019 with three in 12 races.

Larson will surely look to capitalize with a good performance here to possibly get back in the top five in the standings. He has just one win this year after 10 last season. But he does have seven top-five finishes. What’s really hurt him though is his four DNFs (Did not finish), which is the most of any driver in the top 10 of the standings.

Arguably the story of the season, Ross Chastain continues to have an incredible season and enters with the third-best odds among Kwik Trip 250 outrights with +800 odds. Chastain is currently in the Cup Series standings, 30 points behind Elliott and just one ahead of Ryan Blaney.

While this season has served as Chastain’s coming-out party so to speak, he did impress last year with a seventh-place finish at Road America, so it shouldn’t have surprised people when he won at the Circuit of the Americas earlier this season. In 12 races, Chastain has finished in the top 10 five times. Don’t be surprised if Chastain is the one to catch late in the race.

Best of the Rest

Kyle Busch enters at +900, the fourth-lowest among this week’s NASCAR betting odds. He’s having a fine season, currently sitting at fourth in the standings with one win and 11 top-10 finishes. He has also led the fourth-most laps of the season. Busch finished third at Road America last season. In 43 road course races, he’s finished in the top five 15 times and in the top 10 24 times.

Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., and Denny Hamlin all enter with +1200 odds. In 21 races at road courses, Blaney has the second-highest average finish among active drivers at 12.2, including 12 top-10 finishes and five top-five finishes.

Truex Jr. is tied with Busch for the second-most wins at road courses among active drivers with four, including 21 top-10 finishes and 13 top-five finishes. As for Hamlin, he has one win in 41 races at road courses with 19 top-10 finishes and 13 top-five finishes.

Where’s the Value?

One driver that’s flown under the radar this season is Christopher Bell. Quietly, Bell has put together a solid season. Despite having zero wins on the season, he has managed to get ahead of multi-win driver William Byron inside the top 10 at the eighth position. He has 10 top-10 finishes with four top-five finishes and is the only driver in the top 10 with zero stage wins. Not to mention that Bell finished second at Road America last season.

It’s also worth noting that Bell’s only career win came at a road course last season at Daytona. This could be the race that changes for him. At +1500, it’s a great value bet for the weekend.

Daniel Suarez and A.J. Allmendinger have to go on this list, each at +1800 Whether it was just a one-off or not, Suarez took the checkered flag the last time out at a road course in Sonoma. The win was the first time in 14 races he finished inside the top 10.

As for Allmendinger, a road course specialist so to speak, he has three top-10 finishes in seven races, including a win. Don’t count him out when making your Kwik Trip 250 outrights.

Follow us on Twitter
Back to top button

Bet like a PRO!

Thanks

Subscribe now and get Weekly Expert Free Picks