NASCAR Pennzoil 150: Brickyard Outright Odds & Betting Analysis

Now finished with its Northeast series of races, the NASCAR Xfinity Series moves to the Midwest to one of the biggest spectacles in all of racing. As one of the more unique tracks, how will drivers handle it and come out on top in the NASCAR Pennzoil 150? The race will consist of two 20-lap stages before a 22-lap final stage. Kyle Busch has the most Xfinity Series wins at the Brickyard with four.

How they Rank

After an impressive showing at Pocono, A.J. Allmendinger remains atop the driver standings with 747 points and ranks fourth in the playoff standings. Allmendinger has proven he’s not just a road-course specialist this season and leads all drivers in top-10 finishes with 16.

Justin Allgaier currently sits second in the driver standings and the playoff standings. He’s tied with Ty Gibbs for first in the playoff standings, but Gibbs holds the tiebreaker. Allgaier is tied for second among Xfinity Series drivers with three wins and his eight top-five finishes are tied with three other drivers for third-most this season. One category that Allgaier does lead all of the Xfinity Series in is laps lead with 534.

Ty Gibbs enters the weekend third in the driver standing. His four wins lead all Xfinity Series drivers, though Noah Gragson inched closer after holding off Gibbs for a win at Pocono to put him at three for the season.

Josh Berry enters the weekend fourth in the driver standings and fifth in the playoff standings. He’s second in all of the Xfinity Series with nine top-five finishes. He also has the third-most stage wins with five.

Noah Gragson rounds out the top five of the driver standings and sits third in the playoff standings. Gragson started off the season hot but had cooled as the season went along. It didn’t mean he wasn’t racing well, quite the contrary, as he leads the Xfinity Series with 10 top-five finishes, while his 13 top-10 finishes are tied for second-most.

Austin Hill is sixth (600 points), Brandon Jones seventh (574 points), Sam Mayer eighth (543 points), Riley Herbst ninth (518 points), and Daniel Hemric 10th (497 points).

Who are the Favorites?

If you’re looking to bet on NASCAR Xfinity Series, it’s important to understand the odds board.

It’s fair to point out Allmendinger’s two wins of the season have come on road courses, but he’s been more consistent this time around on a week-to-week basis, with the style of track not meaning as much. Sure, he’ll still likely dominate road courses, but he also has top-three finishes at tracks like Daytona and Talladega.

Allmendinger has two careers Xfinity Series starting at Indy Road Course and one in the Cup Series. In the Xfinity Series, he finished second and fourth in his two starts, while he won the lone start at Indy Road Course in the Cup Series. It makes sense as to why Allmendinger is among four drivers tied with +400 odds atop the odds board.

Chase Briscoe is also one of the drivers tied with +400 odds and is one of a handful of drivers racing in both the Xfinity Series race as well as the Cup Series race. Briscoe has a win this season back at Phoenix. He also won last season’s Xfinity Series race at Indy Road Course. An Indiana native, it’s safe to say Briscoe enjoys racing on his hometown track.

While road courses may not be Gibbs’ strongest suit, he’s still had success racing on this style of track. Gibbs finished 19th in his only start at Indy Road Course last season, but won at Road Daytona last season and at Road America in early July of this season. He’s also coming off his first-ever Cup Series start at Pocono after Kurt Busch wasn’t cleared to return after sustaining a concussion in qualifying Saturday.

After the disqualifications to Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, Gibbs officially finished 16th, not bad for a first-time out. With Busch still in doubt for this week, he could find himself racing in both this weekend once again. Gibbs enters the NASCAR Pennzoil 150 as one of the drivers tied with +400 odds.

The last driver tied atop the odds board is Ross Chastain. Chastain has been one of the Cup Series’ darlings so far this season and is currently second in the standings in an almost Cinderella-like fashion. Chastain won at Circuit of the Americas back in May in the Cup Championship before a seventh-place finish at Sonoma and a fourth-place finish at Road America. He left much to be desired after a 29th–place finish at Indy Road Course last season, which is why he might be running in the Xfinity this weekend. Don’t let that scare you away, as he’s still finished seventh or better in six of his last nine races on road courses.

Where’s the Value?

Last week in this section, Allmendinger provided massive value across the board. While he didn’t cash the +1200 outright bet, He cashed both the top-five finish bet at +150 and the driver-matchup bet over Ricky Stenhouse Jr at +120.

If you’ve decided to bet on this bet on NASCAR race, there’s a similar value that can be found on the NASCAR Pennzoil 150 odds board for this week with Noah Gragson at +1400. While road courses aren’t necessarily Gragson’s cup of tea, he’s been the best at Indy Road Course out of all of them by far. In two starts, he’s finished third and fifth. Even with the added talent of Briscoe and Chastain racing at the Xfinity level this weekend, +1400 is too high.

Like with Allmendinger last week, if that’s too much of a longshot for you, look toward his odds to finish in the top three at +350 or the top five at +175. Don’t forget, Gragson leads all Xfinity Series drivers in top-five finishes with 10 in 19 races, or 52.6% of the time facing an implied probability of 36.3%.