NASCAR Quaker State 400 Odds & Betting Analysis
Things are Sure to Speed Up in Atlanta
The NASCAR Cup Series heads south to Atlanta. It will be a major style change from what we’ve been seeing, as NASCAR goes from its second road course in three races to the sport’s lone 1.5-mile superspeedway. With that, the Quaker State 400 odds board may look a little different.
Track Info
Atlanta Superspeedway is a 400.4-mile track built back in 1960. The first two stages will each be 80 laps with a 100-lap final stage. Cale Yarborough has the most all-time wins at Atlanta with six with Dale Earnhardt right behind with five.
Who are the Favorites?
When looking at the Quaker State 400 odds, Chase Elliott enters as the favorite at +1000 but shares those odds with Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain, William Byron, and Kyle Larson.
Elliott was close to capturing his third win of the season last week at Road America, but Tyler Reddick was able to pull that one out for the first win of his career. Elliott, who is quite proficient in road courses, finished second. He still sits atop the NASCAR Cup Series standings and has a good chance at a solid performance this week.
Among active drivers, Elliott has the best average finish at Atlanta at 12.6. While he’s yet to capture a win, he has six top-10 finishes and a top-five finish in his eight races on the track
Just like how Blaney is right behind Elliott in the Cup Series Standings, he’s also right behind him in terms of average finish at 13.0. Unlike Elliott however, Blaney has been able to capture a win at Atlanta.
In the same amount of races as Elliott, Blaney has been able to finish in the top five twice outside of his win. Blaney has yet been able to secure a checkered flag during this Cup Series season (the All-Star race doesn’t count as a Cup Series race) but has six top-five finishes. Like any victor at a superspeedway, Blaney will need some things to fall his way to get a win this week, but given his track record, has one of the best shots on the board.
It’s been great to see Chastain not just be a blip or temporary fad this season, but instead, a contender for the Cup Series Championship. Currently third, Elliott trails Blaney by just two points. When looking at purely wins and top-five finishes, there’s been nobody better this season. He’s one of just five drivers with two wins and has the most top-five finishes of any driver this season. Chastain finished second at Atlanta back in March and led 42 laps along the way. Look for Chastain to keep up his great season.
Larson was right behind Elliott last week at Road America for a third-place finish but was in it all day long. He’s also no rookie at Atlanta. He’s placed in the top-10 in at least one stage in his past six starts at Atlanta. While he hasn’t captured a win, he’s finished second on two different occasions. In his February 2019 race and March 2021 race, he led a combined 511 laps with three stage victories. At +1000 odds, betting Larson isn’t a bad move.
A large reason Byron is amongst the favorites is that he won the March race in Atlanta. He led 111 laps that day while winning Stage 1. The problem for Byron has been consistency. Since his last win at Martinsville in April, Byron has just one top-10 finish and zero in the top five. Byron is talented, there’s no doubt about that, but sharing the same odds as the favorite just because he won here earlier this season seems ridiculous. Look elsewhere when it comes to Byron on the Quaker State 400 odds board.
Best of the Rest
Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin enter at +1200 among the Quaker State 400 odds. Busch has been having a fine season with a win and six top-five finishes. In 25 career starts at Atlanta, Busch has taken the checkered twice and has an impressive 11 top-10 finishes and eight top-five finishes. A bet on Busch just on experience alone at Atlanta wouldn’t be a bad bet. Even if it’s for him to be in the top five or top three at the end. On a superspeedway, Busch is almost certain to make waves.
Hamlin has been the hallmark of inconsistency this season. Before capturing his first win of the year at Richmond in April, Hamlin hadn’t finished in the top 10 to that point. In the five races that followed, he didn’t register a top-20 finish. He did have a nice three-week stretch that included the All-Star Race: A fourth-place finish at Kansas, a second-place finish in the All-Star Race, and a win at Charlotte. Hamlin followed up with back-to-back finishes outside of the top 30. He finished sixth at Nashville before a 17th-place finish at Road America last week. Hamlin has the ability to emerge victorious at any track he races, especially a superspeedway, but for the value, there are better options than Hamlin.
Where’s the Value?
When looking to bet on NASCAR race, it’s all about value. If you’re looking for strictly value bets among the NASCAR Cup Series betting odds, this is the place to find them. You can get a four-time winner at Atlanta for +2000 odds. You have that opportunity with Kurt Busch this week. Outside of his four wins, he has 17 top-10 finishes and nine top-five finishes in 32 races. He’s only finished outside of the top 10 three times in 14 races, making him one of the most consistent on the board. Even with a new team 23XI Racing, he finished third earlier this season, showing the new car and setup don’t impact him on a track he knows so well.
At +2500, Martin Truex Jr. could prove to hold some value. In his past five races at Atlanta, he averaged a fifth-place finish. In his last 12 races at Atlanta, he’s finished outside of the top 10 just once with just five finishes outside of the top five. Even in the race earlier this season, he worked his way up from starting 26th to finishing eighth. That level of consistency is tough to find. Even if it’s just a quarter of a unit or less, Truex Jr. will likely be in the running late.
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