NASCAR Xfinity Darlington Odds: VFW Help A Hero 200 Betting Analysis

Much on The Line at Darlington

The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Darlington after a controversial finish last week and everyone hopes there isn’t a similar situation at the bet on VFW Help A Hero 200. Read on for the NASCAR Xfinity Darlington Odds.

What Happened to Clements?

Jeremy Clements and Jeremy Clements Racing were stripped of the win at Daytona last week which would’ve qualified his team for the playoffs after he was disqualified following a post-race finding the race-winning engine was illegal.

NASCAR also penalized Clements 75 driver and owner points and crew chief Mark Setzer now has to pay a $60,000 fine. While this turn of events certainly impacts the driver, who is currently appealing NASCAR’s ruling, it impacts bettors, depending on the outlet you use to bet on NASCAR.

We saw a situation similar in late July after NASCAR disqualified Denny Hamlin following a post-race inspection. It’s important to know your book’s policy on this matter prior to setting a wager. Some books payout based on who crosses the finish line first, despite being considered unofficial.

Some books wait until all of the post-race inspections are completed to payout. DraftKings, in that particular instance, paid out both Hamlin bettors and Chase Elliott bettors, as Elliott was considered the new winner.

How They Rank Coming In

Ty Gibbs enters the VFW Help A Hero 200 in first place in the playoff standings with 2039 points. He leads all drivers with five wins and is the favorite to go on and win the Xfinity Series Championship. 

Noah Gragson comes in just six points behind Gibbs for first place. It’s not out of the question that Gragson could pass Gibbs this weekend. He leads the Xfinity Series in top-five finishes and has performed rather well at Darlington, as we’ll get into later.

A.J. Allmendinger sits just one point behind Gragson for third in the playoff standings, despite still being in the lead for the driver standings. Justin Allgaier is three points behind Allmendinger for third.

Rounding out the top five is Josh Berry seven points behind Allgaier.

Who Are the Favorites?

It’s a pretty loaded field this week in the NASCAR Xfinity Darlington odds, as three drivers will come down from the Cup Series to also race in the Xfinity Series. First off is the favorite Kyle Larson at +300. In races at Darlington, he’s completed in the Cup Series, he’s finished second three times and third twice. In last year’s fall race at Darlington, Larson led 156 laps, but couldn’t pull off the win.

Excluding his engine failure in the spring race that caused him to finish 36th (he had led 30 laps to that point) Larson’s worst finish is 14th. In those eight races, he has seven top-10 finishes and five top-five finishes. Coupled with the fact that Larson has won five of his last seven Xfinity Series races, we can expect a big day from him.

Originally, Denny Hamlin was slated to run in the Xfinity Series this week in the No. 18 car. But after wrecking in the previous race at Daytona, Hamlin cited neck, back, and hip pain. Instead, Christopher Bell will take his place and enter at +350 odds. Bell has been one of the most consistent Toyotas in the Cup Series this season and could be in for a good day.

Bell’s best finish in the Cup Series came back in May. He qualified third and finished sixth. In two Xfinity Series starts at Darlington, he qualified second both times. A wreck ended his day the first time but finished fourth the second time. Bell runs well on this track. Just a $0.50 difference in price between him and Larson, doesn’t bring a lot of value for Bell.

Don’t Be Surprised

There’s quite the jump to the next driver with Ross Chastain entering at +650. In the spring Cup Series race, Chastain came in second at the end of Stage 1 and won Stage 2 but was in an accident that caused him to finish 30th. Last season, Chastain finished third. In two Xfinity Series races at Darlington, Chastain qualified second both times. A wreck ended his day early in the first race but placed fourth in the second race in 2019. It’s a very similar resume to Bell.

Ty Gibbs enters at +700 on the NASCAR Xfinity Darlington odds board. The tough thing with evaluating Gibbs week-to-week is he has minimal information to go off of due to his youth. Like this week. He hasn’t finished better than 16th in either of his two starts at Darlington, although he did place second in both of the stages in the spring race. Much of Gibbs’ odds are due to pedigree this season. He leads all drivers in wins and is incredibly talented. The stats might not indicate it week-to-week, but Gibbs has the talent to win any race he’s in.

Best of the Rest

In a typical field, there’s no way we’d see these drivers with odds like this. Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier come in at +800. Gragson won the fall race at Darlington last season and finished second this past spring. In six races, he’s never finished worse than eighth and has finished in the top five four times. He doesn’t just place well, he runs the entire race well, evident by his three-stage wins out of the possible four in the last two races. The lone exception? A second–place stage finish.

As is the case most weeks, Allgaier has much more experience than the drivers he’s going against. In 14 starts at Darlington, Allgaier has 10 top-10 finishes. Over his last five starts at Darlington, Allgaier has won twice, including the spring race this season, a third-place finish and a sixth-place finish. Again, if it weren’t for the added Cup Series drivers, Allgaier would probably find himself amongst the favorites on the NASCAR Xfinity Darlington odds board.

A.J. Allmendinger comes in at +1800, which is astounding odds for the driver currently second in the playoff standings, even with the loaded field. Darlington hasn’t been his cup of tea, but he’s run well on tracks this year he hasn’t in the past. In his three Xfinity Series starts at Darlington, he’s made his way to the front in all of them and finished in the top 10 in each of the six possible stages.

Where’s the Value?

If we’re talking about value, it starts with Gragson this week on the NASCAR Xfinity next race odds board. Some might be afraid to lay the outright number, but Gragson can be had at +200 to finish in the top three or -110 for the top five. Allgaier would be one to look at in terms of an outright bet, as his price drops to +150 for the top three and -140 for the top five.

If looking to bet on the VFW Help A Hero 200, Chastain at +650 could be worth a flier just because he might be mispriced compared to Bell. As for Allmendinger, his odds to finish in the top three are +500. While he doesn’t have the resume others do at Darlington, Allmendinger has been arguably the most consistent in the Xfinity Series this year. He’s finished in the top three in three of his last four Xfinity Series races.

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