NASCAR Xfinity Race Texas Betting Analysis

Do the favorites Continue to Impress?

While the NASCAR Cup Series technically is on break this week as the drivers prepare to race for the $1 million purse in the exhibition All-Star Race, the NASCAR Xfinity Race Texas Series makes its return after not racing since May 7 for the SRS Distribution 250 at Texas Motor Speedway.

What’s New?

Things will be interesting during this week’s Xfinity race down at Texas, as JR Motorsports is looking for its fourth-straight win. Things will be relatively wide open for drivers looking to get into victory lane, but there are no full-time Xfinity drivers with a NASCAR Xfinity Race Texas win, on their resume. What does this mean for NASCAR Xfinity betting odds?

Kyle Busch won this event last season, but will not be participating in this year’s race.

Bear in mind, there are a pair of Cup Series drivers that will be participating; William Byron and Tyler Reddick.

JR Motorsports has enjoyed wins from three different drivers on their winning streak. Noah Gragson got things started with a win at Talladega before a Josh Berry win at Dover two weeks ago and a Justin Allgaier win at Darlington back on May 7.

Are the Favorites Worth It?

As mentioned above, one of the Cup Series drivers that will be participating in this week’s NASCAR  Xfinity Race Texas Series is William Byron. Byron has had quite the season at the Cup Series level so far and is one of only two drivers with multiple wins on the season. As a result, Byron enters as the betting favorite at +330.

Back in 2017, Byron was the winner of the NASCAR Xfinity Race Series for JR Motorsports. While none of his four wins that season came at Texas Motor Speedway, he did place in the top 10 in both races on that track that season, with a seventh-place finish in the April race and a ninth-place finish in the November race. As a member of the Cup Series, Byron has found recent success at Texas. His best career finish came last time out at the fall race where Byron finished second after leading 55 laps.

Noah Gragson enters Saturday with the second-lowest odds to take the checkered flag. He’s currently having a great season in the Xfinity Series. He’s second only to Ty Gibbs, despite being tied with 2025 points. Of the 11 races, Gragson has placed in the top five in eight of them, so even when he’s not winning, he’s competing. Gragson has the makeup and look of NASCAR’s next star driver, but with such short odds at +400, there might not be a lot of value.

Allgaier enters with the third-shortest odds at +450. Currently fourth in the standings, Allgaier has four top-five finishes to go with his win this season. Allgaier finished fifth in last season’s Xfinity Series, but ran great at Texas in both races last season. He placed second in the spring race and fourth when the series came back around in the fall.

Best of the Rest

Ty Gibbs enters at +550 and atop the Xfinity Series standings, however, he’s never ran at Texas in his young career. Bettors backing Gibbs will do so more on what he’s shown over the last two seasons with seven wins in 29 races, than prior experience and success on the track.

Josh Berry enters at +800 while AJ Allmendinger enters at +1000.

Berry has a win on his 2022 Xfinity Series resume coming back at Dover. Even outside of his win, he has three other top-five finishes. In his only Xfinity Series race at Texas last June, he finished 19th.

Where’s the Value?

There’s some good value left with Allmendinger at +1000. In two career NASCAR Xfinity Race Texas races, Allmendinger has finished sixth both times while also starting on the pole in both races.

At +1200, there’s value on Reddick as well. He’s finished inside the top 20 at Texas in each race he’s been part of the Cup Series, including a second-place finish in his rookie season back in 2020 and a ninth-place finish last time out at Texas in October. While still a full-time Xfinity driver, he finished second in the fall race at Texas in 2019 and second again in the spring race of 2019.

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