NASCAR Xfinity Series: Production Alliance 300 Odds

Custer Favored for Third Win in Last Four at Fontana

After last week’s race in Daytona, the NASCAR Xfinity Series is underway for 2023 Daytona. Reigning Xfinity Series Rookie of the Year Austin Hill took home the win for his second consecutive season-opening victory. Now, the Xfinity Series turns to the west coast for the Production Alliance 300 Odds in Fontana.

Here’s a look at who’s leading the odds for Saturday’s race:

Defending Winner Leads the Way

Cole Custer (+450) sits atop the NASCAR standings with the best odds at victory. That’s not surprising given his recent run of form there. He’s won two of the last three races in 2019 and 2022. Custer managed a ninth-place finish in Daytona last week. Custer finished second in the championship in 2018 and 2019 and a win here could set the tone for another run at the Xfinity Series title.

Right behind Custer is NASCAR Cup Series racer Tyler Reddick (+550). In his last Xfinity Series race at Fontana in 2019, Reddick took the pole en route to a fourth-place finish. A year before, he finished seventh. He has a solid record at the track but not as good as Custer.

Rounding out the top three favorites is Justin Allgaier (+600). Allgaier is the highest-finishing driver from 2022 to return full-time to the Xfinity Series in 2023. He finished off last year with four top-five finishes in five races.

He’s kept that momentum so far into 2023 with one of his best results at Daytona last week (third place). His track record at Fontana is not great with only one top-five finish in 2018.

Cup Series Regulars Among Longer Odds

Two other NASCAR Cup Series drivers are competing in the Xfinity Series race this Saturday: Ross Chastain and Austin Dillon.

Chastain (+900) hasn’t finished near the top in either the Cup Series or Xfinity Series. His best finish (eighth) came in 2020. He’s failed to crack the top 10 in eight of the nine other races in Fontana in both series combined.

But Dillon (+1400) has been a consistent performer in Fontana. He won the 2016 Xfinity Series race and has finished in the top five in four other Xfinity/Cup Series races and the top 10 in another two. Dillon is a longer shot than Custer or fellow Cup Series regular Reddick, but can offer you consistency for a better payout.

Josh Berry and John Hunter Nemechek both sit at +750. Berry struggled to 26th at Daytona last week. He took fourth in Fontana last year after starting 11th and could find the pace this year once again. Nemechek’s’ best result in Fontana is 25th in the 2020 Cup Series race there.

He’s only run three races there combined from his Xfinity and Cup Series experience. These NASCAR Xfinity Series odds reflect a good showing last week in Daytona but history shows he may not continue that good form this Saturday.

Potential Value Picks

Brandon Jones (+1200) has shown pace at Auto Club Speedway in prior Xfinity Series races. In 2020, he took the pole position and led the first two stages. In 2022, he was second in stage two.

But bad luck struck him both times; it was contact and a late stop in 2020 and late contact again knocked him down the order in 2022. Look for him to put an end to the bad luck this weekend.

Hill (+1600) is fresh off a win last week but sits farther down the order for betting favorites. He’s not performed well at Fontana in the past. His best finish, 16th, came in 2020. It’d be a big bet on current form, not history, but could net a good payout in a field that isn’t too stacked with Cup Series runners.

Anthony Alfredo (+8000) has much longer odds, but he could be a great low-risk choice. He’s finished in the fifth and sixth in his last two Xfinity Series races in Fontana. That’s after starting 28th and 13th. He’s shown the ability to make up places in this race, should he start farther down the order.

Predictions for the Production Alliance 300 Odds

The safest bet is most likely to ride the hot hand at Fontana in Custer but we like Jones’ odds. His bad luck could finally turn good this Saturday and make up for the missed opportunities in 2020 and 2022. Dillion is also a consistent performer at Auto Club Speedway and a win in one of his Xfinity Series races this year could be a welcome surprise.

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