NASCAR Xfinity Series: Wawa 250 Odds & Betting Analysis
High Speeds and Hard-Nosed Racing On Tap
The NASCAR Xfinity Series prepares for a busy day Friday at Daytona, as drivers will qualify and race on the same day. Will it be one of the usual suspects at the top of the Wawa 250 odds? Read on to find out.
How They Rank Coming In
Ty Gibbs enters the Wawa 250 in first place in the playoff standings. He leads all drivers with five wins and is the favorite to go on and win the Xfinity Series Championship.
Noah Gragson comes in just six points behind Gibbs for first place. It’s not out of the question that Gragson could pass Gibbs this weekend. While Gibbs leads all of the Xfinity Series in wins, Gragson leads in top-five finishes with 12 and second-most top-10 finishes with 16.
One of the main reasons Gragson finds himself this high in the standings is the fact he has 10 stage wins. No other driver has more than six.
A.J. Allmendinger remains first in the driver standings but third in the playoff standings. He’s tied for second in the wins category with three and the second-most top-five finishes with 10. His 19 top-10 finishes are the most in the Xfinity Series this season.
Justin Allgaier is fourth in the standings with the same amount of wins and top-five finishes as Allmendinger. Unfortunately for Allgaier, his week ended rather early at Watkins Glen last week for his third DNF of the season.
Rounding out the top five is Josh Berry seven points behind Allgaier.
Who are the Favorites?
NASCAR Xfinity betting can be slightly different from the Cup Series. In the Cup series, there’s slightly more randomness involved. In the Xfinity Series, it’s usually the same six or seven drivers that combine for most of the wins, other than when Cup Series drivers come down.
That’s exactly what we have this week. Justin Haley comes down from the Cup Series to race in the Xfinity Series as well and is the favorite at +800.
Haley has won the August Daytona race at the Xfinity Series level in each of the last two years after a sixth-place finish in 2020 and a second-place finish in 2019. That makes it four top-10 finishes, three top-fives, and two wins in seven Xfinity Series races at Daytona.
Gibbs enters with the second-lowest odds at +900 among the Wawa 250 odds. He placed 11th in his only Xfinity Series Daytona start in February but did finish fourth when he ran there in the ARCA Menards Series.
It takes a lot of skill and luck to win at this track. Gibbs has proven he has both this season. It would come to the surprise of nobody to see Gibbs in Victory Lane yet again this season.
Also at +900 is Gragson. The thing with Gragson at Daytona lately is it’s all or nothing. He finished third and seventh in his last two respective starts at Daytona after finishing 32nd and 31st in the two races prior, respectively.
Even then, those unlucky accidents came after he won in February of 2020. We talked about skill and luck with Gibbs and the same applies to Gragson. His luck at Daytona has been more of a pendulum than anything else. Barring bad luck, Gragson should be in a position to make a push at the end to win.
While Allmendinger, who enters at +900, still may have the stigma of being a road-course specialist, especially after finishing second at Watkins Glen in the previous race, he’s proven he’s broken away from that, at least in the Xfinity Series.
He’s finished in the top five in each of his last three Xfinity Series starts at Daytona, including back-to-back second-place finishes in his last two. He finished third at Talladega back in April after finishing third in April of 2021 as well. In his last six starts at Superspeedways, Allmendinger has finished in the top five in five of them and third or better in four.
Gibbs enters at +400 among the Xfinity NASCAR odds. In just one race at Watkins Glen, which came last season, he walked away as the winner. He also has won at Daytona Road Course and Road America, so it’s not likely he will be bothered by the road course format.
The real question is whether he’ll be able to navigate through all of the drivers from the Cup Series that are also running this race. Larson, William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Cole Custer will be the additional drivers in the field.
Best of the Rest
Austin Hill enters at +1000 after winning back in February. He had one of the fastest cars in qualifying as well that day, as he qualified second. He also showed he could come from behind, as he didn’t even place in the top 10 at the end of Stage 2. The only things he doesn’t have are history or experience. Yes, he had won last time out, but his previous start at Daytona was a 35th-place finish.
If Justin Allgaier has one thing going for him this weekend it’s experience. He has 23 starts at Daytona over his Xfinity Series career. He’s been successful in each of his last two times out. He finished fifth earlier this season and third in this race last season. That came after a chain of bad luck that had knocked him out of his previous three, including one where he was leading into the final stage.
He’s finished inside the top 10 10 times in 23 races, six in the top five, three in the top three, and two second-place finishes, but has never won. He’s available at +1100. He spun out early last week, so any bad juju should be of him by now for a solid day at Daytona.
Where’s the Value?
When looking to bet on NASCAR it’s often about value. That means, it’s not always who you take but at the price you take them.
With three drivers at +900 among the Wawa 250 odds, Allmendinger presents the most value across the board. If you don’t like him to win, but his recent overall finishes at superspeedways sound intriguing, taking him at +100 to finish in the top five might be worth your while.
Gibbs and Gragson offer some value at +110 for a top-five finish as well.
The biggest “longshot” of the weekend is likely Ricky Stenhouse Jr., as he is racing in the Xfinity Series this weekend. He finished fifth in the July 2016 Daytona race and won the following year. At +1400, it could be worth a flier.
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