Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds: Second Road Course Presents Challenge in Sonoma

The Difference a Week Makes

After the Enjoy Illinois 300, Ryan Blaney leads the Cup Series standings ahead of William Byron. Ross Chastain, championship leader for much of 2023, now sits fifth after another 22nd-place result. Kyle Busch became the second driver to three wins in 2023 after taking the pole and holding off Denny Hamlin for victory. He jumps to seventh in the standings and looks primed for another playoff run.

This week, the Cup Series makes an annual change of pace from the oval tracks with a trip to Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It’s been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule since 1989, so drivers are familiar with the 1.99-mile layout. Despite the change in layout, some familiar faces lead the Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds for victory.

Reddick leads the top group over Larson

Sonoma marks the second road course race of the NASCAR schedule in 2023. The first came in Austin at the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. Tyler Reddick qualified second led the most laps, and won that race for his first win of 2023. It’s not surprising to see him leading the NASCAR odds for a win this weekend at +450.

He’s gaining a reputation as one of the better road course drivers on the grid. Three of his four career Cup Series victories have all come on road courses: Austin (2023), Indianapolis (Grand Prix circuit, 2022), and Elkhart Lake (2022).

He’s one of the only drivers on the grid with his best average finish (12th) on road courses. He’s qualified well in two races at Sonoma (10th in 2021, 5th in 2022), but that has yet to translate to good results. Reddick could improve that track record this weekend.

Sonoma’s been a rough place for Larson (+475) throughout his career. He’s started on pole in the last five races there, but he’s only managed one win (2021). He’s cracked the top 10 in the seven other races just once.

He was in the mix for victory late last week and managed fourth place. He’s come close to a win multiple times this season, and, with slightly better luck, he’d likely be leading the championship or close to it. A win here would be welcome for a driver looking to get momentum on his side on the final stretch of the regular season.

Chase Elliott (+500) returns this week following a suspension for intentionally crashing with Hamlin in Charlotte. Like Reddick, Elliott’s qualified well in Sonoma. He’s started in the top 10 in the last five races. He only converted one of those to a podium (second in 2021) but made the top 10 in 2017, 2018, and 2022. Engine problems in 2019 doomed his hope of a top finish.

Of these favorites, he may need a win the most. It’s been a rollercoaster year for the 2020 Cup Series champion with the suspension and leg injury. A win puts him closer to a punching a ticket to the Cup Series playoffs.

Byron and Busch (both at +800) round out the favorites.

Byron has an okay track record in Sonoma. He’s qualified as high as second (2019), but his best finish is ninth (2022). These short Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds are thanks to his current form (top 10 in the last six races) and his pole in Austin.

He’s shown a good pace at road courses this year. With a fourth win in 2023, he’d match the total of last year’s champion, Joey Logano. Byron would also be an early favorite in the playoffs with a win.

Busch is one of just two active drivers with multiple wins in Sonoma (2008, 2015). He’s been remarkably consistent there. Since 2012, he’s qualified in the top 10 seven times.

That’s yielded six top-10 finishes, including the win in 2015. He had a four-year streak of top-five results snapped with his 30th-place finish last year. He’s fresh off a win, and another would make him one of the early playoff favorites.

Chastain leads road course standouts

Chastain (+1100) leads the next group in odds. He’s currently in a bad stretch of results. Twenty-ninth in Darlington and 22nd in Charlotte and Madison. He finished 20th or lower three times in the first 12 NASCAR races. He’s matched that total in three weeks.

Luckily, he’s been solid in Sonoma, with seventh-place finishes in the last two seasons. Like Reddick, he’s one of the only drivers on the grid whose best career average finish is at road courses. He finished fourth in Austin earlier this year. He needs a win this weekend to ensure he’ll have a chance at the Cup Series playoffs.

Defending race winner Daniel Suárez is next at +1200. He’s 16th in the standings with just one top-five finish (Fontana). Sonoma’s his only career Cup Series win. He’d be the first repeat winner since Martin Truex Jr. (2018-19) with a win on Sunday. That’d be a surprise, but so was his win last year.

AJ Allmendinger (+1600) is almost always high up among the odds, especially the Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, for victory at road courses thanks to his Champ Car/IndyCar background. His two career Cup Series wins are at the Indianapolis Road Course (2021) and Watkins Glen (2014). He swept pole, win, and most laps led in the Xfinity Race in Austin. He finished 34th in the Cup Series race the next day. He’ll likely do better than that; even a win would not be surprising.

Austin Cindric (+1800) rounds out the second group. He has just one race under his belt at Sonoma. Though it’s just one race, he managed to go from 25th to 5th. He has a very short track record, but it’s a stellar one.

Long shots for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Blaney (+2500) leads the Cup Series thanks to his consistency this season. He’s finished in the top eight in more than half of the races in 2023. His win in Charlotte and sixth place last week in Madison put him at the top of the NASCAR standings. He’s been a solid driver in Sonoma with four top-10 finishes out of six races. A win would be his second career victory on road courses.

Truex Jr. (+3000) has more wins in Sonoma than any other active driver. His latest came in 2019. Outside of those wins, he’s had inconsistent finishes. Fifteenth in 2014, 42nd in 2015, fifth in 2016, 37th in 2017, wins in 2018 and 2019, third in 2021, and 26th in 2022 make for a roller coaster of a track record. Another win this weekend makes sure he’s back in the Cup Series playoffs.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks

Of the favorites, Reddick seems like the best bet. He has a stellar road course record and is enjoying his best Cup Series season so far in 2023.

If you’re looking for a bigger payout, look for Allmendinger to come through in the closest thing he has to a home race. For an even bigger payout, it’s hard to argue against a flier on Blaney.

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