As the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs draw closer, the pressure is on some drivers. The Watkins Glen NASCAR race is far from a walk in the park. Some drivers perform better on road courses, while some aren’t as skilled with this style of racing.
How they Rank
Ty Gibbs enters the Watkins Glen NASCAR race first in the playoff standings with 2036 points. With five wins on the season, Gibbs leads off the Xfinity Series.
Noah Gragson and A.J. Allmendinger are tied for the second spot in the playoff standings with 2032 points. Gragson has 11 top-five finishes while Allmendinger has nine. However, Allmendinger has 18 top-10 finishes to Gragson’s 15.
Justin Allgaier sits fourth just one point behind Gragson and Allmendinger. Like Gragson and Allmendinger, Allgaier has three wins on the season and the second-most top-five finishes with 10.
Josh Berry rounds out the top five with 2022 points. He has two wins on the season and nine top-five finishes on season.
Who are the Favorites?
If you’re looking for betting on NASCAR Xfinity Series, it’s important to understand the odds board. One might think Allmendinger would be the clear-cut favorite for this NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen, considering the season he’s had and the fact that he typically dominates road courses. That might be true if Kyle Larson wasn’t coming down from the Cup Series to get some extra laps in by racing in the Xfinity Series.
The former Cup Series Champion enters tied with Allmendinger atop the odds board at +300. Larson has run well at Watkins Glen NASCAR races in the past. He won last year’s race after having placed in the top 10 in his previous two races prior to the win. He also has won at Charlotte Rocal and Sonoma with top-three finishes at Road America, Indy Road Course, and Circuit of the Americas. While there may not be much value at +300, it wouldn’t be shocking in the slightest bit to see Larson in Victory Lane.
As for Allmendinger, it’s been a case of close but no cigar. In three Xfinity Series starts at Watkins Glen, he’s finished second twice after leading the race at the end of Stage 2 both times. Could this be the week Allmendinger finally gets the win at Watkins Glen? Or will the crowded field be too much?
Gibbs enters at +400 among the NASCAR Xfinity Series odds. In just one race at Watkins Glen, which came last season, he walked away as the winner. He also has won at Daytona Road Course and Road America, so it’s not likely he will be bothered by the road course format. The real question is whether he’ll be able to navigate through all of the drivers from the Cup Series that are also running this race. Larson, William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Cole Custer will be the additional drivers in the field.
Best of the Rest
While Byron (+600) intends to run in the Xfinity Series race, he hasn’t particularly been the best when it comes to road courses. His best finish is sixth on road courses and has as many finishes in the 30s as he does in the top 10. Perhaps last year’s sixth-place finish was him starting to turn a corner, but since then he’s finished in the top 10 only once on road courses.
Chastain enters at +900. He’s been strong on road courses this season in the Cup Series. He won at COTA with a seventh-place finish at Sonoma and a fourth-place finish at Road America. +900 in the Xfinity Series field may be worth a flier.
Cole Custer enters with +1000 odds. Custer finished seventh in his last running at Watkins Glen and sixth the race before. At COTA he finished third earlier this season and seventh in 2021. His best performances have come at California (Auto Club), where he won earlier this season and in 2019.
Where’s the Value?
When looking to bet on NASCAR, it’s all about finding value.
The driver that provides the most value this week is Allgaier at +2500. This number just seems off. It’s likely because of all of the extra drivers from the Cup Series that are on the field, but even then, that number seems way off.
While he’s never won, he has finished in the top 10 in his last seven outings at Watkins Glen and in the top five in each of his last four. If the outright bet seems like too big of a number, consider a bet on Allgaier to finish in the top five at +250. At that number, the implied probability he does so is just 28.57%, despite finishing in the top five in 100% of his last four.Follow us on Twitter