2023 NBA MVP Odds: Embiid Officially Market Favorite
Can Jokic Make It Three Straight MVP Titles?

Three-Way Race to Finish
Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are officially in a three-way battle for the league’s top regular season award. Let’s dive into the 2023 NBA MVP Odds to see where the value sits in the final month of the season.
Jokic is the reigning two-time MVP winner and spent much of the season as the frontrunner to win his third straight award, but the market has officially flipped in favor of Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid.
Antetokounmpo is also a two-time recipient of the award and might represent the best value of the three candidates considering his on-court efficiency and play at both ends of the floor.
Meanwhile, Embiid is aiming to win his first MVP award and has garnered plenty of media support over the past couple of weeks that have led to him being instilled as the consensus market favorite.
Let’s take a look at each player’s individual case to see what our NBA picks would suggest as being the best value for bettors.
Embiid Narrative Proving Valuable
Joel Embiid has been a force again this season and it seems the media is firmly in his corner as his MVP campaign continues to gather steam.
His numbers this season on offense are great; he’s averaging 33.3 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game while shooting 54.5% from the field.
One of the primary reasons for ascending to the top of the MVP markets has been his dominance inside. No player demands the attention he does in the post and his ability to read the double-team and draw contact around the rim are why he leads the league in Free Throw rate on the season.
Embiid had scored 30+ points in 10 straight games earlier this month, breaking a franchise record as he pushes towards his first NBA scoring title. He also tied LeBron James for an NBA record seven straight games scoring 30+ points while shooting over 55% from the field.
All things considered Embiid deserves to be amongst the frontrunners, however, having him listed as such a firm market favorite seems a stretch considering his team isn’t performing as well as Antetokounmpo and his offensive contributions (outside of points per game) aren’t as impactful as Jokic.
Embiid has also publicly stated that he might need to sit games down the stretch to ensure his healthy for the playoffs; if that’s not a red flag from a betting perspective I’m not sure what is!
Unless you bought Embiid at a long odds underdog early in the season there doesn’t seem to be any value or reason for you to be investing in him now. Given the way this West coast trip has panned out there’s fair reason to believe you can find a time in the near future to get him at plus-money odds if you still want to buy on him.
Value: C
Jokic Better Than Ever
There’s not much to say about Jokic that hasn’t already been said in the past.
His impact on the game is quite simply second-to-none right now and the way he’s able to manipulate a game outside of just scoring makes him arguably the most complete offensive player in the league right now.
Jokic leads the league in almost every advanced offensive metric – he is 1st in PER (player efficiency rating), 1st in True Shooting percentage, 1st in Win Shares and 1st in Box Plus/Minus. He is averaging 26.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 10.5 assists per 36 minutes and his team sits comfortably atop the Western Conference Standings.
Having just outshone Antotekounmpo is a recent matchup all eyes will now be on his matchup with Embiid and the 76ers. A similar result and output from Jokic might be enough to sway some recent bias in his favor and move him back into market favorite.
The fact he’s having a near career-year on the back of winning back-to-back MVPs speaks volumes to how he’s embraced leading this team to the best record in the West now that the team around him is fully healthy. No player owns a stronger analytical advantage in the MVP race and the only flaw to his case is possible voter fatigue.
Now is probably the best market entry point for Jokic and the +175 odds won’t last if they beat Philadelphia at home in their next game.
Value: A
Antetokounmpo Being Underrated?
It’s hard to discount the Greek Freak from contention when you factor in the current NBA standings. He’s the best player on the best team, which is usually strong grounds for him to be considered the market favorite at this time of year.
The unfortunate thing for Giannis is that he may well be a victim of his own success.
We’ve become accustomed to his high-level of play every night that most people are seemingly desensitized to what he is managing to do.
Antetokounmpo is currently averaging 34.8 points, 13.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists per 36 minutes this season. He’s shooting 55% from the field and is accounting for 30% of his teams defensive rebounds when he’s on the floor. He’s also the only player in the league averaging 30 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists.
He’s doing all this while recording a career-high 38.7% usage rate while on the floor; a testament to his efficiency that he’s been able to remain such a positive contributor every night given how the Bucks struggled to have their other stars available alongside him to start the season.
Current market prices have him sitting at +325 and that does represent some strong value all things considered. Embiid may sit some games down the stretch as the Sixers look to hold on for the #3 seed, while the anti-Jokic brigade might do enough to swing a lot of votes his way.
A fair price would have him priced alongside Embiid so grabbing him at anything above +250 seems a good investment.
Value: B
That’s all for our 2023 NBA MVP Odds analysis. Be sure to make sure to weigh up your case to ensure you’re buying in on the candidate you feel represents the best implied probability from the markets.
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