Atkins is Key to Totals Per Mercury vs Mystics WNBA Picks

Can Phoenix Get To .500 Before Three Week Hiatus?

July 15, 2024 207 4 minutes readNBA Picks & Parlays

Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics
Mercury vs Washington WNBA Picks & Trends
Phoenix Caught The Injury Bug
Ariel Atkins Is All Washington Has
The Mystics Are Below Average

The Phoenix Mercury will head to Washington to take on the Mystics for their final game… until August 15.

Yes, you read that right.

The WNBA will have a three-week All-Star break for the Olympic Games. Therefore, the regular season will pause from July 17 to August 15.

The Mercury would love to get over .500 before the break. They’re currently 12-12 on the season and still fighting for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix will have three of its stars on Team USA. The national team includes Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi, and Kahleah Copper.

Meanwhile, the Mystics won’t have anyone going to the Olympics on the roster. The only person affiliated with Washington headed to the Olympics is Mike Thibault, the head coach. He’ll be an assistant for the team under Cheryl Reeve.

But enough about the Olympics. We’ve got a game to break down.

The Mercury are -4 on the road, with the total sitting at 169.5. Oddsmakers like Phoenix’s chances at finishing the first half of the season over .500.

Here are our Mercury vs Mystics WNBA picks for this early morning matchup.

🏀 Mercury vs Mystics 🏀

📊Records: Phoenix Mercury (12-12), Washington Mystics (6-18)
📅Day/Time: Tuesday, July 16, 11:30 a.m. ET
📍Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
📺Streaming: MNMT

Mercury vs Washington WNBA Picks & Trends

The Phoenix Mercury might be 12-12 on the season, but they’re 14-10 against the spread (ATS). The Mercury have struggled on the road, going just 4-8, but have hit the Under in 13 of 24 games this year.

On the other hand, Washington is 16-7 ATS despite having a 6-18 record. Oddsmakers think they’re terrible but continue to cover massive spreads, at least.

Phoenix already delivered a win at home against the Mystics, 83-80. This was back on May 23 when Griner wasn’t even healthy yet. The WNBA scores could get even higher with Griner on the court in this one.

Phoenix Caught The Injury Bug

The Phoenix Mercury are on a two-game losing streak. They’ve played multiple games throughout the year without Griner, Taurasi, and Natasha Cloud. But despite all of this adversity, the Mercury are still hanging on to a 12-12 record.

The entire starting lineup should be intact for this final game. Taurasi and Cloud returned to game action in their brutal loss to Connecticut last time out.

Still, having a healthy roster will enhance Phoenix’s WNBA finals odds.

Ariel Atkins Is All Washington Has

The Mystics are also banged up and likely won’t have many depth pieces for this game against the Mercury.

Right now, it’s been all Ariel Atkins for Washington. Atkins just dropped 36 points in 35 minutes against the Las Vegas Aces and scored 26 points in the game before to help Washington earn a win against Catilin Clark and the Indiana Fever.

Against the Aces last time out, Atkins was the only player who scored more than nine points. She also took 25 shots, while no other player took more than 10 shots.

There probably needs to be more balance on this team. It’s why they’re 6-18 this season.

At least the WNBA‘s players’ props for Atkins are hitting lately.

The Mystics Are Below Average

To close out the first half, the Washington Mystics will still be without Brittney Sykes, Shakira Austin, and Karlie Samuelson. It’s also unclear if DiDi Richards will return to the court for this game.

That leaves Atkins all alone offensively.

Austin and Sykes are the other top scorers on Washington. Samuelson is also a top-five scorer for the Mystics this season. Ultimately, Ariel Atkins and Stefanie Dolson are the two players who can score at a reasonable rate. The rest of the team is lacking.

Throughout the season. Washington hasn’t even earned more than 80 points per game. The Mystics have averaged 95.2 points per 100 possessions and have shot a 42.9% effective field goal percentage (EFG%).

Washington is usually lethal from three, hitting 37.1% from downtown. But that’s about all the Mystics are good at on offense.

Meanwhile, Phoenix has added 83.3 points per game. The Mystics have also added 82.7 possessions per 40 minutes and have shot a 50.2 EFG%. Phoniex usually gets to the foul line at a high rate and has scored .92 points per play. That’s third-best in the WNBA as of now.

On the other hand, the Mystics have allowed a field goal percentage of 45.5% from opponents this season. They’ve also allowed the highest opponent free throw rate in the WNBA and have given up 50.6% of points to opponents from inside the arc.

That said, Washington can stay in this game by hitting threes. They’ve already hit from downtown at a high rate and will now take on a Phoenix squad that allows a 33.7% 3-point rate. The Mercury have allowed 31.5% of points from three this season.

While it would be fun to pick a team to win the game outright, the Over stands out more per the analysis. Phoenix won’t struggle to score against Washington. Many teams haven’t. But if Washington can just make three-point shots consistently, the Over will hit.

If you’re looking for Mercury vs Mystics WNBA picks, consider grabbing the Over 169.5 (-110).

For WNBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.