Basketball – WNBA Top Players:  Best Over/Under teams

Evaluating the Most Profitable Over/Under Teams  

At the beginning of any new sports season, figuring out what teams are most profitable in various categories can be tricky. Sample sizes are small and trends haven’t begun to show themselves quite yet. That was the case at the beginning of the 2022 WNBA season, but as we near the final stretch of regular-season games, we’ve got a better handle of which teams are most profitable betting against the spread and the over/under, and who the WNBA top players are.

There are a number of factors that go into analyzing the total for each game. Pace, offensive and defensive efficiency, and which team has more WNBA top players, are all things to consider when betting the over or under. Let’s take a look at which teams are most profitable when wagering on the total.

For starters, as a league, the percentage of games that have gone over or under the projected total is just about as close as it can be. As of this writing, in non-overtime games, the over has hit 50.3% of the time, which would leave the under hitting at 49.7% of the time. If we include the seven overtime games the league has had this season, the percentage of games hitting the over ticks up just a bit to 51.8% of the time. This tells us that the books have a really good handle on totals and that their lines have been very sharp.

League Wide Totals

Non-OT

Games

Over Percentage Under Percentage
78 50.3% 77 49.7%
All Games Over Percentage Under Percentage
85 51.8% 79 48.2%

Most Profitable Over Teams

In terms of individual teams, it has become very clear which teams you should look to bet the over on and which are more likely to stay under. Both the Dallas Wings and Los Angeles Sparks lead the league with an over/under record of 16-11, meaning the over is hitting 59.2% of the time. This is interesting because while the Wings rank in the top-5 in offensive rating this season, the Sparks are near the bottom of the league in that category. So, I’m not sure it’s fair to say that it’s the offense for these two teams that tend to push their games over the total. If you look at the defensive rating for both of these teams, they’re in the bottom half of the league in that category. They allow their opponents to score quite a bit against them, which is causing their games to surpass the total.

The same can be said for the Minnesota Lynx who ranks third in over percentage at 57.6% (with 3 pushes) and the Indiana Fever who rank fourth at 55.1% (with 1 push). The WNBA’s best offensive team, the Las Vegas Aces, rounds out the top five most profitable teams, hitting over 53.8% of the time (with 2 pushes). The Aces are always a team that you should look to play over, pending you’re able to find an edge in the market. Las Vegas plays at the fastest pace in the league, owns the best offensive rating, and has a number of WNBA top players on its roster. Averaging 90.4 points per game, the Aces score more than anyone in the WNBA odds. However, their defense is also pretty porous, allowing the fourth most points to oppose teams. Anytime a team has a high-powered offense and an underwhelming defense, it’s a good idea to consider a play on the over.

Most Profitable Under Teams

The Washington Mystics are by far the most profitable under team in the WNBA. In the Mystics’ 28 games this season, the under has hit 67.9% of the time. Washington’s defense has been their claim to fame all season, holding opponents to a league-leading 75.0 points per game and the best defensive rating. Not to mention, the Mystics have some of the best defensive players in the WNBA in Natasha Cloud, Alysha Clark, and Ariel Atkins. The total has closed at 160 or above in only 11 of their games. Of those 11 games, eight of them have gone under. So, if you ever see a total set above 160 for any of the Mystics’ remaining games, it might be a good idea to consider a play of the under.

The New York Liberty are another team that hits the under more than half of the time. Their games have stayed under the total 51.9% of the time. The Liberty shoot a ton of threes and when those aren’t falling they struggle to score. New York hasn’t seen the success they were hoping for from deep this season, which equates to a number of lower-scoring games despite having one of the WNBA top players in Sabrina Ionescu.

Both the Atlanta Dream and Seattle Storm have played 28 games thus far and have an identical over/under record of 14-14. The Chicago Sky and Connecticut Sun are right behind them and also have an identical record. Their over/under record is 14-13-1 with the over hitting 51.8% of the time, not including the one push.

Over/Under Record for All 12 Teams

Below is a list of all over/under records for each team as we enter into the final eight or nine games of the regular season. While these numbers can be used as a starting point when capping a game, it’s important to understand that there are a number of factors that go into betting a total. Take these percentages into consideration, but don’t blindly bet an over or under solely based on these numbers.

Dallas Wings Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
16 59.2% 11 40.8 0
Los Angeles Sparks Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
16 59.2% 11 40.8 0
Minnesota Lynx Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
15 57.6% 11 42.4% 3
Indiana Fever Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
16 55.1% 13 44.9% 1
Las Vegas Aces Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
14 53.8% 12 46.2 2
Phoenix Mercury Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
15 53.5% 13 46.5% 0
Chicago Sky Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
14 51.8% 13 48.2% 1
Connecticut Sun Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
14 51.8% 13 48.2% 1
Atlanta Dream Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
14 50% 14 50% 0
Seattle Storm Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
14 50% 14 50% 0
New York Liberty Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
13 48.1% 14 51.9% 0
Washington Mystics Over Percentage Under Percentage Push
9 32.1% 19 67.9% 0
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