Bucks vs Heat Odds: Game 3 Spread Shrinks as Series Shifts to Miami
Top-Seeded Milwaukee Listed as 5.5-Point Road Favorite

The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks responded convincingly to their Game 1 loss, pummeling the eighth-seeded Miami Heat 138-122 in a record-setting performance on Wednesday. Now, with the series tied 1-1, it’s on to South Beach. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the Bucks vs Heat odds for Saturday’s pivotal Game 3 at Kaseya Arena (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
No Giannis, No Problem
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed two games against Miami this season. In both cases, the Heat won. That fact had to be of some concern to the Bucks, who officially ruled out the two-time Most Valuable Player an hour before tipoff with a lower back contusion.
For at least one night, though, Antetokounmpo’s absence didn’t matter. Milwaukee showcased its elite depth, scoring 138 points, including a franchise playoff record 81 in the first half, to comfortably cover the 9-point spread and even the series at a game apiece.
Brook Lopez poured in 25 points, Jrue Holiday scored 24 and Pat Connaughton, who didn’t even play in Game 1, finished with 22 points. Altogether, seven different players scored in double figures for the Bucks, who matched an NBA record for 3-pointers in a game.
Milwaukee shot 25-of-49 from 3-point range, tying the mark set by the Cleveland Cavaliers, who hit 25 in a 123-98 win over Atlanta in Game 2 of the 2016 Eastern Conference semifinals.
Connaughton knocked down a game-high six 3s on 10 attempts, Joe Ingles hit five and Holiday and Grayson Allen each hit four. Seven different Bucks made at least one shot from beyond the arc.
It was a stark turnaround from Game 1, in which Milwaukee was just 11-of-45 from 3. In the NBA regular season, the Bucks averaged 14.8 3-pointers per game (fourth in the NBA).
The 138 points were the most against Miami in the playoffs, eclipsing the record of 132 set by Milwaukee in Game 2 of the teams’ 2021 first-round series. It was also a season-high. In fact, only one other time this season did the Heat allow more than 130 points (134-121 loss to Boston on Nov. 30).
Miami Missing Herro
Tyler Herro broke his right hand in Game 1, leaving Miami without its third-leading scorer behind Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and its most elite shooter. To replace him, the Heat turned to Duncan Robinson, who scored 14 points on four 3-pointers but didn’t generate the same respect from Milwaukee’s perimeter defenders.
Miami shot a healthy 44.4% from deep (16-of-36), which was of course was overshadowed by Milwaukee’s record-setting performance.
Herro is expected to miss four to six weeks. Based on that timeframe, he may be able to return to the NBA Finals if Miami can somehow make it. In the meantime, without Herro, Butler will need to carry a heavier load offensively for the Heat to go anywhere.
Herro, remember, averaged 20.1 points on 37.8% shooting from 3 during the regular season, per NBA player stats.
Handicapping Game 3
With the series shifting to Miami, the spread for Game 3 is down to 5.5 points in favor of Milwaukee. The Bucks are also -225 on the moneyline, with the Heat priced at +190. Meanwhile, the over/under is 220.5, despite the teams having surpassed that projected total in each of the first two games.
Keep in mind, when assessing the Bucks vs Heat odds, Milwaukee is 44-36-4 against the spread this season, while Miami is an NBA-worst 31-50-3 ATS.
Following its Game 2 victory, Milwaukee’s odds of winning the series jumped from -270 to -450. No. 2 seed Boston, however, remains slightly favored ahead of Milwaukee in both the Eastern Conference (+135) and Finals (+275) betting markets.
Milwaukee is now 3-1 in the playoffs without Antetokounmpo, including a pair of victories in the 2021 conference semifinals. With another two days off before Saturday, Antetokounmpo could be back in the lineup. The Bucks, however, have yet to announce anything definitive.
Given how they played without him, the Bucks could proceed cautiously for Game 3.
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