Can The Las Vegas Aces Finally Win Against The Spread?
Mercury vs Aces WNBA Prediction: Phoenix Fouls Too Much

The Las Vegas Aces are on their quest for a three-peat. So far, it’s been so good.
The Aces are 2-0 to begin the season after home wins against the Phoenix Mercury and Los Angeles Sparks. They’ll stay home one more time for another battle against the Mercury.
The Mercury are still playing without Brittney Griner, who played 15 minutes in a pre-season game against Seattle earlier in the month. However, she has a fractured toe and won’t see the court yet.
Still, after the loss to the Aces, the Mercury turned around and defeated Atlanta as slight underdogs, 88-85. Can Phoenix use that as momentum against the WNBA’s best?
The Aces are currently -14.5 against the spread, with the total sitting at 171.5.
Here’s our Mercury vs Aces WNBA prediction for the late-night Western Conference matchup.
🏀 Mercury vs Aces 🏀
Records: Phoenix Mercury (1-1), Las Vegas Aces (2-0)
Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Day/Time:
TV & Live Stream: WNBA League Pass
Mercury vs Aces WNBA Prediction & Trends
Although the Phoenix Mercury are 1-1 on the season, the Mercury have actually covered against the spread in back-to-back games to begin the season.
That includes Game 1 of the season, when the Mercury lost to the Aces, 89-80. The Aces were 16.5-point favorites in that game but only won by nine.
Meanwhile, the Under 170 hit after both teams combined for 169 points. However, in the second game for the Mercury and Aces, the Over hit.
Career-High 38 For Kahleah Copper
Kahleah Copper added 38 points and six rebounds against the Atlanta Dream to help push the Mercury to an 88-85 win. Copper has been in the league since 2016, but this is her first season with Phoenix. She was drafted by Washington and then played with Chicago for seven consecutive seasons before latching on with the Mercury.
Copper looks like a very good fit with the Mercury and is currently leading the team in scoring with 28.5 points per game. However, despite her success, our Mercury vs Aces WNBA prediction won’t change.
The Big Three Continue To Shine!
The Las Vegas Aces Big Three are at it again. A’Ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Kelsey Plum have combined for 66.5 points per game through two games this season.
No other player on the Aces has averaged more than ten points so far. But when you have those three scorers, it’s more than enough in the WNBA.
The Aces are 0-2 against the spread this season, but you’ll want to check back at the Las Vegas betting lines because the win column against the spread will soon make a turn.
Can The Mercury Cover Again?
The Phoenix Mercury already covered the spread against the Aces in the first game of the season. In that game, the Aces still won by nine, 89-80, but the Mercury shot 41.7% from three and hit 38.2% from the field.
Phoenix added the same amount of rebounds as the Aces and even had more assists in the game. However, the Mercury had six more turnovers and gave up 14 fastbreak points.
At one point in that game, the Aces found themselves up 18. The Mercury’s largest lead was just three points. But while the Mercury had comparable stats in most categories, the foul shots were the difference.
Phoenix took only ten free throws in the game. Meanwhile, the Aces added 29 foul shots.
In addition to the 29 foul shots, Las Vegas drilled 25 of them, shooting 86.2% from the foul line.
Heading into Game 3, the Aces have allowed the fewest points at the foul line this season. However, the Mercury are dead last in percentage of points from the foul line. While it’s a two-game sample size, that trend will likely continue heading into tonight’s game.
On the other hand, the Aces haven’t played terrific defense. They’ve allowed a 44.4% field goal percentage and have watched their first two opponents hit 40% from downtown.
Meanwhile, the Mercury has allowed 46% of points from inside the arc. They’re not even making it hard on teams. Last year, the Aces finished first inside the arc, shooting about 55% from two-point range. In addition, they also haven’t shot well from downtown to begin the season. But that figures to change after Las Vegas drilled 37.2% from three last year.
Mostly, every stat for the Las Vegas offense last year was top-two except for the percentage of points from the foul line. But if you add the additional foul shots because of the high rate that Mercury allows them, the Aces look unstoppable heading into this game.
While the Mercury have a gem in Kahleah Copper, they’re still without Brittney Griner and are relying on 41-year-old Diana Taurasi as the team’s second-best scorer. That’s a hard sell, although Taurasi is still playing at a really high level.
We’ll see if the Mercury has what it takes to make the WNBA Playoffs this year. But it’s very likely the Aces make it. They’ll be favorites in almost every game on the WNBA schedule. Back in Las Vegas at -14.5 (-110) for tonight’s game.
For WNBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.